Supporting Actress

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (20.88)
2. (2.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (13.77)
3. (3.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (12.05)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (10.44)
5. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (10.05)

6. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (9.33)
7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (1.17)
8. (-.) Barbara Hershey, Black Swan (1.00)
9. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (-.) Ann Guilbert, Please Give (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (-.) Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Everybody else seems to predict Mila Kunis instead of Jacki Weaver, but even without this Formula, I would still go for Weaver...

Post Globes Update

This weekend, we had the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards and the nominations from the American Cinema Editors. But, due to a lack of change, I will not update these rankings until tomorrow's BAFTA Nominations.

The most important change of this weekend, happened in the best supporting actress category, where Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) climbed into the top 5 (finally!). Thanks to her Young Actress-win at the Critics Choice Awards, she climbs from number 6 to number 4.

Tomorrow we'll know The Formula's FINAL RESULTS! The following actors need a nomination from BAFTA, or they are out:
* Michelle Williams
* Andrew Garfield
* Mila Kunis
* And last but not least, Toy Story 3 needs a BAFTA nomination for best picture.

You can read the updated CALCULATIONS in excel.

Supporting Actress

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (16.77)
2. (3.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (12.66)
3. (2.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (12.05)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (9.33)
-. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (9.33)

6. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (8.83)

7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (1.17)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (-.) Ann Guilbert, Please Give (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Steinfeld has one last chance: she must min something at the British Choice Awards, either best supporting actress or best new actress. Otherwise, she's out.

Supporting Actress

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (16.77)
2. (2.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (12.05)
3. (3.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (11.55)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (9.33)
-. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (9.33)

6. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (8.83)

7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Steinfeld is coming closer and closer

Supporting Actress

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (16.77)
2. (2.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (12.05)
3. (3.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (11.55)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (9.33)
-. (5.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (9.33)

6. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (8.33)

7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Carter vs Kunis vs Steinfeld. Who will be left out?

Supporting Actress

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (15.66)
2. (2.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (10.94)
3. (2.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (10.44)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (9.33)
5. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (8.22)

6. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (6.72)

7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Do it yourself
Here are the Calculations
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here's what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association: winners receive 1.5 points instead of their previous Chicago nomination points (which was 1 point). Winners of the best promising actor and/or actress receive 1 point extra if they are also nominated in the regular best acting categories (actor/actress, leading/supporting).

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point.

Supporting Actress

1. (2.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (11.33)
2. (3.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (9.33)
-. (1.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (9.33)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (8.22)
-. (5.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (8.22)

With a little bit of luck:
6. (7.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (5.61)

The race is over for:
7. (5.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Supporting Actress

1. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (9.33) - Lock!
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (7.22) - Lock!
3. Amy Adams, The Fighter (5.22)
4. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (4.11)

5. Mila Kunis, Black Swan (2.00)
-. Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (2.00)
7. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (1.50)
8. Marion Cotillard, Inception (1.00)
-. Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (1.00)
-. Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (1.00)
-. Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (1.00)

Supporting Actress

1. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (7.22)
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (3.00)
3. Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (2.00)
4. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (1.50)

5. Amy Adams, The Fighter (1.00)
-. Marion Cotillard, Inception (1.00)
-. Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (1.00)
-. Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (1.00)
-. Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (1.00)

About the acting categories:
The only lock so far is Colin Firth (and probably Geoffrey Rush). But we'll have many more lock tomorow, after the Golden Globe nominations! Stay tuned!

Supporting Actress

1. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (4.11)

2. Amy Adams, The Fighter (1.00)
-. Marion Cotillard, Inception (1.00)
-. Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (1.00)
-. Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (1.00)
-. Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (1.00)

How to read this
In the supporting categories the influences of the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild are even more powerfull. It doens't matter how many Oscar nominations you received in the past, if you don't have a nomination from the Globes or SAG, you're points will be divided by 3. (Here an ensemble nomination can be enough. Remember Alan Alda?)

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (30.93)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (16.88)
3. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (11.55)
4. Penelope Cruz, Nine (9.33)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)

6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)

8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
Mo'nique, Kendrick and Farmiga are locks. There are three candidates for the remaining two spots: Moore, Kruger and Morton (no matter what the Formula says, Cruz is completely out).

So another tragic 3 out of 5 is possible... But I think Moore and Morton are going to make it, so the Formula has a 4 out of 5.

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (29.82)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (15.77)
3. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (10.44)
4. Penelope Cruz, Nine (9.33)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)

6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
Penelope Cruz won't be nominated. Samantha Morton is bound to take her place. Agree?

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (25.71)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (15.77)
3. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (10.44)
4. Penelope Cruz, Nine (9.33)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)

6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
I discovered Penelope Cruz received two points too many back in december... It doesn't really matter, she stays a lock (according to the Formula)

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (25.71)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (15.77)
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (11.44)
4. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (10.44)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)

6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
Moore is the only difference with the SAG nominations (they went for Kruger instead).

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (25.21)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (15.77)
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (11.44)
4. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (10.44)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)

6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
Diane Kruger can only defeat Jullianne Moore if she wins the best supporting actress award of the Online Film Critics and receives a nomination from BAFTA. But the idea of any supporting actress award not going to Mo'Nique is so unlikely these days. Which is good news for Julianne Moore. Moore is the only difference with the SAG nominations (they went for Kruger instead).

I don't feel confident about this category at all. Are Kruger and Morton not stronger contenders than Cruz and Moore? Formula, I fear you're making two mistakes here...

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (22.49)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (13.55)
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (11.44)
4. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (9.33)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (5.22)

6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (4.00)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.45)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
The bold ones are locks. If I would predict the nominees myself, I would pick Samantha Morton for the fifth spot. But history learned that the Formula is better at this than me, so...

Supporting Actress

LOCKS
1. Mo'nique, Precious (19.88)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (13.55)
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (11.44)
4. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (9.33)

Fighting for fifth spot
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (5.22)
6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (4.00)

Thanks for playing, maybe next time
6. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (1.50)
7. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (1.00)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (10.94) - LOCK!
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (8.33) - LOCK
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (5.22)
4. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (4.22)
-. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (4.22)

6. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (1.50)
7. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (1.00)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (7.22)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (6.22)
3. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (1.00)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)
-. Penelope Cruz, Nine (1.00)

Supporting Actress

1. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (6.22)
2. Mo'nique, Precious (4.11)
3. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (1.00)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)
-. Penelope Cruz, Nine (1.00)