Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (60.54)!
2. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (24.86)
3. (4.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (24.64)
4. (2.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (24.51)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (16.77)

6. (6.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (5.31)
7. (7.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (4.75)
8. (8.) Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (3.20)
9. (9.) Ben Affleck, The Town (2.31)
10. (10.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

This is what everybody else is predicting, and I really hope this will come true. Fincher, Nolan and Aronofsky are three of the best directors of the last ten years. David O. Russel had a bad decade, but he could very well be one of the best directors of the next ten years. They all deserved this recognition at the turn of the millenium (for Fight Club, Memento, Requiem for a Dream and Three Kings respectively). Fingers crossed!

Post Globes Update

This weekend, we had the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards and the nominations from the American Cinema Editors. But, due to a lack of change, I will not update these rankings until tomorrow's BAFTA Nominations.

The most important change of this weekend, happened in the best supporting actress category, where Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) climbed into the top 5 (finally!). Thanks to her Young Actress-win at the Critics Choice Awards, she climbs from number 6 to number 4.

Tomorrow we'll know The Formula's FINAL RESULTS! The following actors need a nomination from BAFTA, or they are out:
* Michelle Williams
* Andrew Garfield
* Mila Kunis
* And last but not least, Toy Story 3 needs a BAFTA nomination for best picture.

You can read the updated CALCULATIONS in excel.

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (47.73)
2. (2.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (20.84)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (19.39)
4. (4.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (18.25)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (14.22)

6. (6.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (4.73)
7. (7.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (3.73)
8. (12.) Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (2.98)
9. (13.) Ben Affleck, The Town (2.31)
10. (9.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

This top 5 is final. Whatever happens, nobody else can enter it.

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (40.07)
2. (6.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (15.84)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (14.39)
4. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (13.48)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (9.66)

6. (4.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (4.73)
7. (7.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (3.51)
8. (12.) Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (2.31)
9. (13.) Ben Affleck, The Town (2.01)
10. (9.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (35.99)
2. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (12.94)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (11.72)
4. (4.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (9.15)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (7.00)

6. (6.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (4.11)
7. (8.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (2.04)
8. (9.) Debra Granik, Winter's Bone (1.35)
9. (10.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
10. (11.) Luca Guadagnino, I Am Love (0.75)

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (33.47)
2. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (12.94)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (10.61)
4. (4.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (9.15)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (7.00)

6. (7.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (3.16)
7. (6.) Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
8. (8.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (1.53)
9. (10.) Debra Granik, Winter's Bone (1.35)
10. (9.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

Do it yourself
Here are the Calculations
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here is what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association: the best director winner receives 1.5 points instead of his previous Chicago nomination point (which was 1 point). The directors of the best screenplay winners receive 0.8 points extra. The director of the winning Foreign Language Film receives 0.8 points.

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point.

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (25.90)
2. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (10.92)
3. (6.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (9.50)
4. (5.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (9.15)
5. (9.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (7.00)

6. (3.) Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
7. (4.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (2.22)
8. (6.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (1.53)
9. (8.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
10. (11.) Debra Granik, Winter's Bone (0.67)

Best Director

1. David Fincher, The Social Network (10.18) - Lock!
2. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (2.92)
3. Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
4. Christopher Nolan, Inception (2.22)
5. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (2.09)

6. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (1.31)
-. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (1.31)
8. Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
9. David O. Russell, The Fighter (1.11)
10. Bong Joon-Ho, Mother (0.67)

Best Director

1. David Fincher, The Social Network (8.35)
2. Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
3. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (1.18)
4. Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
5. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (1.10)

6. Bong Joon-Ho, Mother (0.67)
7. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (0.40)
-. David Michod, Animal Kingdom (0.40)
-. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (0.40)
-. Christopher Nolan, Inception (0.40)
-. Ben Affleck, The Town (0.40)
-. Debra Granik, The Winter's Bone (0.40)

Best Director

1. David Fincher, The Social Network (3.19)
2. Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

3. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (0.40)
-. David Michod, Animal Kingdom (0.40)
-. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (0.40)
-. Christopher Nolan, Inception (0.40)
-. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (0.40)
-. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (0.40)
-. Ben Affleck, The Town (0.40)
-. Debra Granik, The Winter's Bone (0.40)

How to read this
This doesn't mean that Fincher and Polanski are surefire nominees just yet. In the Best Picture and Best Director race, you need at least a nomination from the Directors Guild, the Producers Guild or a Screen Actors Ensemble Award!

Best Director

1. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (31.40)
2. James Cameron, Avatar (22.64)
3. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (20.35)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (15.79)
5. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (13.86)

6. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (9.53)
7. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)

8. J.J. Abrams, Star Trek (3.33)
9. Lone Scherfig, An Education (3.14)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (2.70)

Note
I would be very surprised if Tarantino wouldn't get a nomination. He is the reason why people like Inglourious Basterds. This is more the kind of film that would get snubbed in the Best Picture Category (back in the old days, I mean, when there were only five Best Picture Nominees).

I still think that both Daniels and Blomkamp will get nominated. My guess is that Reitman will be the surprise snub.

If so, the Formula will score a 4 out of 5 in this category.

Best Director

1. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (31.40)
2. James Cameron, Avatar (21.31)
3. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (19.62)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (15.79)
5. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (11.42)

6. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (9.02)
7. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
8. J.J. Abrams, Star Trek (3.11)
9. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (2.70)
10. Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man (2.43)

Note
This is the Formula's boldes prediction of the year: no Tarantino for best director. The most logic prediction would be Reitman, Cameron, Bigelow, Tarantino and Blomkamp, no?

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (38.19)
2. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (29.38)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (20.65)
4. James Cameron, Avatar (17.99)
5. Lee Daniels, Precious (15.79)

6. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (11.42)
7. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
8. J.J. Abrams, Star Trek (3.11)
9. Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man (2.43)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (2.37)

Note
Many 'insiders' note that Lee Daniels is the DGA nominee that could be left out when the Oscar Nominations are announced. I think so too. But according to the Formula, the fifth spot is a showdown between Tarantino's Basterds and the Aliens from District 9.

If the Tarantino film fails to win best picture, best director or best screenplay at the Golden Globes next sunday, he's out and District 9 will take his place... Without an important Golden Globe, The Formula will consider Inglourious Basterds as a Too Early Front Runner.

Bad News Note
The last film The Formula considered a Too Early Front Runner, was Crash, a film that eventually won the best picture Oscar...

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (31.97)
2. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (23.38)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (20.21)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (12.35)
5. James Cameron, Avatar (11.77)

6. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (9.66)
7. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)
8. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
9. Lone Scherfig, An Education (2.43)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (2.37)

Note
To my own suprise there are only two locks. The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air and Inglourious Basterds must win an important Golden Globe (picture, director, actor, actress or screenplay) otherwise they will be this year's Too Early Front Runner. And that's especially bad news for Basterds. If the Tarantino film fails to win one of these, its score will be divided by 2.5 and it'll leave the top 5, in favor of District 9.

The chances for District 9 to crack into the top 5, are almost diminished by its ineligibility for the Writers Guild Award. In fact Inglourious Basterds, An Education, Up, In the Loop, A Single Man, The Road and Fantastic Mr. Fox are all ineligible for the Writers Guild. That and the new rule by the Producers Guild to nominate ten instead of five films, will have a bad effect on the Formula's prediction rate, I'm afraid, and especially in the best director category.

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (27.13)
2. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (19.04)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds (14.05)
4. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (9.66)
5. Lee Daniels, Precious (8.02)

6. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)
7. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
8. Lone Scherfig, An Education (2.43)
9. James Cameron, Avatar (2.04)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.94)

Note
After the DGA nominations are announced, James Cameron will be in the top 5. Bigelow, Reitman & Tarantino will be his fellow nominees. I always felt sure that Lee Daniels would fill the fifth spot, but now I feel Blomkamp could be a spoiler... Mmmmm... I like spoilers...

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (25.80)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (12.72)
3. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (7.51)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (6.68)
5. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)

6. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.25)
7. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (2.33)
8. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.94)
9. Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man (1.77)
10. Lone Scherfig, An Education (1.70)

Note
Just one lock, but that will change very soon...

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (22.03)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (11.62)
3. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (7.51)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (6.68)
5. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)

6. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.25)
7. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.94)
8. Lone Scherfig, An Education (1.70)
9. Wes Anderson, Fantastic Mr. Fox (1.58)
10. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (1.31)

Note
There are no locks yet, but Bigelow, Tarantino and Reitman are very strong contenders. I expect Lee Daniels and James Cameron to join them...

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (20.12) - LOCK! -
2. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (11.62) - LOCK! -
3. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (6.37)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (5.77)
5. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)

6. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.25)
7. Lone Scherfig, An Education (1.70)
8. Wes Anderson, Fantastic Mr. Fox (1.58)
9. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.51)
10. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (1.31)

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (6.95)
2. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (4.05)
3. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (2.81)
4. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (2.42)
5. Wes Anderson, Fantastic Mr. Fox (1.58)

6. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.51)
7. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (1.31)
8. Olivier Assayas, Summer Hours (1.18)
9. James Cameron, Avatar (0.80)
-. Nancy Meyers, It's Complicated (0.80)

Note
It's too soon to talk about locks, but this top 10 shows where this race is going...

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (4.42)
2. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (1.90)
3. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (1.80)
4. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.51)
5. Olivier Assayas, Summer Hours (0.751)

6. Lone Scherfig, An Education (0.75)
7. Jane Campion, Bright Star (0.40)
-. Lee Daniels, Precious (0.40)
-. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (0.40)
-. Rob Marshall, Nine (0.40)

Note
Olivier Assayas??? I expected The White Ribbon to sweep the foreign film awards...