BEST PICTURE

1. The Social Network (8.87)
2. Carlos (2.10)
3. Inception (1.39)
-. The King's Speech (1.39)
-. Winter's Bone (1.39)

6. The Ghost Writer (1.35)
7. The Kids Are All Right (1.07)
8. 127 Hours (1.06)
-. The Town (1.06)


10. Animal Kingdom (0.40)
--. Blue Valentine (0.40)
--. Get Low (0.40)

New Awards
This is a new update of the rankings of the experiment with the winners from LAFCA, NYFCC, the Southeastern Film Critics and the Top 10 from the BFCA.

At this stage we had three Top Tens: from NBR, Southeastern Film Critics and BFCA. Seven films were on all three of them: The Social Network, Inception, The King's Speech, Winter's Bone, The Fighter, Toy Story 3 and True Grit. Will these seven films be nominated for best picture? It's very likely at this point.

Best Director

1. David Fincher, The Social Network (8.35)
2. Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
3. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (1.18)
4. Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
5. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (1.10)

6. Bong Joon-Ho, Mother (0.67)
7. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (0.40)
-. David Michod, Animal Kingdom (0.40)
-. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (0.40)
-. Christopher Nolan, Inception (0.40)
-. Ben Affleck, The Town (0.40)
-. Debra Granik, The Winter's Bone (0.40)

Best Actor

1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech (8.83)
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (4.11)
3. Edgar Ramirez, Carlos (2.00)
4. Ewan McGregor, The Ghost Writer (1.50)

5. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
-. Robert Duvall, Get Low (1.00)
-. James Franco, 127 Hours (1.00)
-. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (1.00)

Best Actress

1. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (4.11)
2. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (3.11)
3. Kim Hye-Ja, Mother (3.00)
-. Lesley Manville, Another Year (3.00)
5. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (2.61)

6. Sylvie Testud, Lourdes (1.50)
-. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (1.00)
-. Helen Mirren, The Tempest (1.00)
-. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (1.00)
-. Noomi Rapace, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Tilda Swinton, I Am Love (1.00)
-. Naomi Watts, Fair Game (1.00)
-. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (1.00)

Supporting Actor

1. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (6.83)
2. Christian Bale, The Fighter (4.11)
3. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (3.00)

4. Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (1.00)
-. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (1.00)
-. Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (1.00)
-. Sean Penn, Fair Game (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Town (1.00)

Supporting Actress

1. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (7.22)
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (3.00)
3. Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (2.00)
4. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (1.50)

5. Amy Adams, The Fighter (1.00)
-. Marion Cotillard, Inception (1.00)
-. Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (1.00)
-. Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (1.00)
-. Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (1.00)

About the acting categories:
The only lock so far is Colin Firth (and probably Geoffrey Rush). But we'll have many more lock tomorow, after the Golden Globe nominations! Stay tuned!

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The King's Speech (5.77)
2. The Kids Are All Right (4.46)
3. Toy Story 3 (3.10)
4. Buried (3.00)
5. Carlos (2.41)

6. Inception (2.05)
7. Mother (1.15)
-. Of Gods and Men (1.15)
9. Biutiful (1.00)
-. The Eclipse (1.00)
-. Get Low (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. The Social Network (14.80)
2. Winter's Bone (2.05)
3. 127 Hours (1.70)
-. The Town (1.70)
5. The Ghost Writer (1.35)

6. Fair Game (1.00)
-. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

Look at those top five adapted screenplays! Wouldn't it be cool if those were the final nominees?

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (5.40) - LOCK! -
2. Up in the Air (3.53) - LOCK! -
3. Invictus (1.26)
4. An Education (0.73)
5. Summer Hours (0.66)
6. The White Ribbon (0.60)
7. A Serious Man (0.49)
8. Julie & Julia (0.48)

9. Bright Star (0.40)
-. Nine (0.40)
-. Precious (0.40)
-. The Messenger (0.40)
-. The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.40)

Note
Here's an update with the winners from the New York Film Critics Circle (without the runners-up, which I don't have at this time).

In a normal year, you don't have Best Picture locks this early in the game. But now that there are 10 Best Picture nominees, I expect that once you have 4 points, you're a sure thing. After just three awards, both The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air are all ready there.

I'm not wondering where Nine is (didn't see it, I'm just not interested), but if you are, I have good news: I expect it to be back with a vengeance when the Golden Globe nominations are announced tomorrow. So stay tuned!

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (4.42)
2. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (1.90)
3. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (1.80)
4. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.51)
5. Olivier Assayas, Summer Hours (0.751)

6. Lone Scherfig, An Education (0.75)
7. Jane Campion, Bright Star (0.40)
-. Lee Daniels, Precious (0.40)
-. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (0.40)
-. Rob Marshall, Nine (0.40)

Note
Olivier Assayas??? I expected The White Ribbon to sweep the foreign film awards...

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (5.59) - LOCK! -
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (4.11)
3. Colin Firth, A Single Man (3.11)
4. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (3.00)

5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.00)
-. Hugh Dancy, Adam (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Lofcker (1.00)
-. Johnny Depp, Public Enemies (1.00)
-. Michael Sheen, The Damned United (1.00)

Note
George Clooney won the best actor trophy from the NYFCC, but received no points for it since it was for two films (Up in the Air and Fantastic Mr. Fox). See the Julianne Moore Rule.

Best Actress

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (6.22)
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (5.59)
3. Yolande Moreau, Séraphine (3.00)

4. Abbie Cornish, Bright Star (1.00)
-. Catalina Saavedra, The Maid (1.00)
-. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (1.00)
-. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.00)
-. Penelope Cruz, Broken Embraces (1.00)
-. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds (7.22)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (4.11)
3. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (2.00)

4. James McAvoy, The Last Station (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (1.00)

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (7.22)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (6.22)
3. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (1.00)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)
-. Penelope Cruz, Nine (1.00)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (6.62) - LOCK! -
2. In the Loop (5.11)
3. A Serious Man (4.81)
4. Summer Hours (2.41)
5. Up (2.05)

6. 500 Days of Summer (1.35)
7. A Prophet (1.15)
8. Bright Star (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (10.03) - LOCK! -
2. An Education (1.70)
3. Precious (1.35)
4. District 9 (1.00)
-. Julie & Julia (1.00)