Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (2.) The King's Speech (22.49)
2. (1.) Inception (20.77)
3. (3.) The Kids Are All Right (17.52)
4. (4.) Black Swan (14.94)
5. (5.) The Fighter (12.02)

6. (6.) Please Give (5.11)
7. (7.) Buried (3.00)
8. (8.) Four Lions (2.61)
9. (9.) I Am Love (2.41)
10. (10.) Biutiful (2.26)

This prediction seems solid.

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (48.58)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (14.06)
3. (3.) True Grit (11.89)
4. (4.) Toy Story 3 (10.58)
5. (5.) The Town (8.62)

6. (6.) Winter's Bone (5.67)
7. (8.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (5.63)
8. (7.) I Love You Philip Morris (5.11)
9. (9.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2.11)
10. (10.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

I would be very surprised if Winter's Bone failed to score a nomination in this category. That would be the Formula's second certain mistake.

Post Globes Update

This weekend, we had the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards and the nominations from the American Cinema Editors. But, due to a lack of change, I will not update these rankings until tomorrow's BAFTA Nominations.

The most important change of this weekend, happened in the best supporting actress category, where Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) climbed into the top 5 (finally!). Thanks to her Young Actress-win at the Critics Choice Awards, she climbs from number 6 to number 4.

Tomorrow we'll know The Formula's FINAL RESULTS! The following actors need a nomination from BAFTA, or they are out:
* Michelle Williams
* Andrew Garfield
* Mila Kunis
* And last but not least, Toy Story 3 needs a BAFTA nomination for best picture.

You can read the updated CALCULATIONS in excel.

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (1.) Inception (19.31)
2. (3.) The King's Speech (17.92)
3. (2.) The Kids Are All Right (16.41)
4. (4.) Black Swan (13.48)
5. (5.) The Fighter (10.91)

6. (6.) Please Give (4.00)
7. (7.) Buried (3.00)
8. (8.) Four Lions (2.61)
9. (9.) I Am Love (2.41)
10. (10.) Biutiful (2.26)

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (38.79)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (12.95)
3. (3.) True Grit (10.43)
4. (4.) Toy Story 3 (8.77)
5. (5.) The Town (8.62)

6. (6.) Winter's Bone (5.67)
7. (7.) I Love You Philip Morris (4.00)
8. (8.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2.26)
9. (9.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2.11)
10. (10.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

These two top 5's are final.

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (2.) Inception (14.85)
2. (3.) The Kids Are All Right (14.30)
3. (1.) The King's Speech (12.35)
4. (4.) Black Swan (9.02)
5. (-.) The Fighter (6.45)

6. (-.) Please Give (4.00)
7. (5.) Buried (3.00)
8. (6.) Four Lions (2.61)
9. (7.) I Am Love (2.41)
10. (8.) Biutiful (2.26)

This is the first 'locked category'. At the end of this experiment, these will be the five predicted nominees. Whatever happens.

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (32.37)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (10.84)
3. (5.) True Grit (8.32)
4. (4.) Toy Story 3 (6.66)
5. (8.) The Town (6.51)

6. (3.) Winter's Bone (5.67)

7. (-.) I Love You Philip Morris (4.00)
8. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2.26)
9. (7.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2.11)
10. (9.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (1.) The King's Speech (11.65)
2. (3.) Inception (9.89)
3. (2.) The Kids Are All Right (9.84)
4. (4.) Black Swan (4.56)
5. (5.) Buried (3.00)

6. (7.) Four Lions (2.61)
7. (7.) I Am Love (2.41)
8. (9.) Biutiful (2.26)
9. (10.) Of Gods and Men (1.15)
-. (10.) Mother (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (27.41)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (6.38)
3. (4.) Winter's Bone (5.67)
4. (3.) Toy Story 3 (5.26)
5. (5.) True Grit (3.86)

6. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2.26)
7. (9.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2.11)
8. (7.) The Town (2.05)
9. (8.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
10. (9.) Fair Game (1.00)
--. (9.) Rabbit Hole (1.00)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (1.) The King's Speech (10.89)
2. (2.) The Kids Are All Right (8.73)
3. (3.) Inception (7.93)
4. (-.) Black Swan (3.10)
5. (5.) Buried (3.00)

6. (7.) Four Lions (2.61)
7. (6.) Carlos (2.41)
7. (8.) I Am Love (2.41)
9. (11.) Biutiful (2.26)
10. (8.) Of Gods and Men (1.15)
--. (8.) Mother (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (25.45)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (5.27)
3. (-.) Toy Story 3 (4.91)
4. (3.) Winter's Bone (4.21)
5. (-.) True Grit (2.40)

6. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2.26)
7. (4.) The Town (2.05)
8. (5.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
9. (6.) Fair Game (1.00)
-. (-.) Rabbit Hole (1.00)
-. (6.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

Note
In the previous editions I had Toy Story 3 in the original screenplay category, which was a mistake. Sequals are always based on material previously produced or published, so they are always 'adapted screenplays'. If you see mistakes like that, always feel free to point them out to me.

Do it yourself
Here are the Calculations.
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here's what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association Awards: the winners get 1.5 points instead of their previous Chicago nomination points (which was 1 point). In the screenplay category, the winning Foreign Language Film receive 0.8 points.

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point.

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (1.) The King's Speech (8.58)
2. (2.) The Kids Are All Right (7.27)
3. (3.) Inception (4.51)
4. (4.) Toy Story 3 (3.10)
5. (5.) Buried (3.00)

6. (6.) Carlos (2.41)
7. (-.) Four Lions (1,50)
8. (-.) I Am Love
-. (7.) Mother (1.15)
-. (7.) Of Gods and Men (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (19.22)
2. (2.) 127 Hours (4.92)
3. (3.) Winter's Bone (2.40)
4. (4.) The Town (1.70)
5. (5.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

6. (6.) Fair Game (1.00)
-. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. (6.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The King's Speech (8.23) - lock!
2. The Kids Are All Right (6.92)
3. Inception (4.51)
4. Toy Story 3 (3.10)
5. Buried (3.00)

6. Carlos (2.41)
7. Mother (1.15)
-. Of Gods and Men (1.15)
9. Biutiful (1.00)
-. The Eclipse (1.00)
-. Get Low (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. The Social Network (17.26) - lock!
2. 127 Hours (4.92)
3. Winter's Bone (2.05)
4. The Town (1.70)
5. The Ghost Writer (1.35)

6. Fair Game (1.00)
-. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The King's Speech (5.77)
2. The Kids Are All Right (4.46)
3. Toy Story 3 (3.10)
4. Buried (3.00)
5. Carlos (2.41)

6. Inception (2.05)
7. Mother (1.15)
-. Of Gods and Men (1.15)
9. Biutiful (1.00)
-. The Eclipse (1.00)
-. Get Low (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. The Social Network (14.80)
2. Winter's Bone (2.05)
3. 127 Hours (1.70)
-. The Town (1.70)
5. The Ghost Writer (1.35)

6. Fair Game (1.00)
-. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

Look at those top five adapted screenplays! Wouldn't it be cool if those were the final nominees?

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. Buried (3.00)
2. Toy Story 3 (1.70)
3. Inception (1.35)
-. The King's Speech (1.35)
5. Of Gods and Men (1.15)

6. Biutiful (1.00)
-. The Eclipse (1.00)
-. Get Low (1.00)
-. The Kids Are All Right (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. The Social Network (6.57)
2. The Ghost Writer (1.35)
-. The Town (1.35)
-. Winter's Bone (1.35)

5. 127 Hours (1.00)
-. Fair Game (1.00)
-. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

How to read this
It looks like we have a first lock for an Oscar nomination! Since 5 points is usually enough to end up in the final top 5 Screenplays, The Social Network's screenplay is an almost certain Oscar nominee. But we all ready knew that, didn"t we...

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (26.74)
2. Inglorious Bastards (18.51)
3. A Serious Man (15.26)
4. Avatar (12.32)
5. Up (11.69)

6. 500 Days of Summer (10.99)
7. The Hangover (5.46)

8. The White Ribbon (4.02)
9. Sin Nombre (2.41)
-. Broken Embraces (2.41)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (36.78)
2. Precious (13.63)
3. District 9 (9.60)
4. In the Loop (8.44)
5. An Education (7.43)

6. Star Trek (6.81)
7. Julie & Julia (5.46)

8. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.86)
9. Crazy Heart (4.00)
10. Invictus (3.05)

Note
The Hurt Locker, Basterds, A Serious Man and Up are locks for Original Screenplay. There are 3 possibilities for that fifth spot: Avatar, 500 Days of Summer and The White Ribbon. My guess is The White Ribbon over Avatar.

The Adapted Screenplay provides one question mark: In the Loop. Is that film too obscure for the Academy? If so, it might get replaced by Crazy Heart (or Fantastic Mr. Fox). My guess is that Loop gets in.

So I expect the Formula to score a splendid 9 out of 10 at the screenplay categories.

So the overall prediction rate will be 38 out of 45 (or 84.4%). Or are my speculations nothing but wishfull thinking? We'll know on February 2. See you then!

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (25.28)
2. Inglorious Bastards (17.40)
3. A Serious Man (14.15)
4. Avatar (11.97)
5. 500 Days of Summer (10.99)

6. Up (10.58)
7. The Hangover (4.35)
8. The White Ribbon (4.02)
9. Sin Nombre (2.41)
-. Broken Embraces (2.41)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (35.32)
2. Precious (12.17)
3. District 9 (8.49)
4. In the Loop (7.33)
5. Star Trek (6.81)

6. An Education (5.97)
7. Julie & Julia (5.46)
8. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.86)
9. Crazy Heart (4.00)
10. Invictus (3.05)

Note
I think everyone agrees here, no?
Original: The Hurt Locker, Basterds, Up, A Serious Man and 500 Days of Summer, with Avatar and The White Ribbon as possible spoilers?
Adapted: Up in the Air, Precious, District 9, In the Loop and An Education?

Anyone out there with a different view?

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (23.17)
2. A Serious Man (14.15)
3. Inglorious Bastards (13.94)
4. 500 Days of Summer (10.99)
5. Up (9.88)

6. Avatar (9.51)
7. The Hangover (4.35)
8. The White Ribbon (2.76)
9. Sin Nombre (2.41)
10. It's Complicated (2.35)

Note
Two spots left for three films: 500 Days of Summer, Up and Avatar. Avatar's screenplay can receive two points if Avatar wins best picture at the globes. The Bafta nominations will determine the rest...

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (31.21)
2. Precious (12.17)
3. District 9 (8.49)
4. In the Loop (7.33)
5. Star Trek (6.81)

6. An Education (5.97)
7. Julie & Julia (5.46)
8. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.86)
9. Crazy Heart (4.00)
10. Invictus (3.05)

Note
BAFTA will decide if the fifth spot goes to Star Trek or An Education...

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (19.06)
2. Inglorious Bastards (13.94)
3. A Serious Man (10.04)
4. Up (9.88)
5. 500 Days of Summer (6.88)

6. Avatar (5.40)
7. The White Ribbon (2.76)
8. Sin Nombre (2.41)
9. It's Complicated (2.35)
10. Broken Embraces (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)
-. The Maid (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (27.10)
2. District 9 (8.49)
3. Precious (8.06)
4. In the Loop (7.33)
5. An Education (5.97)

6. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.86)
7. Invictus (3.05)
8. Where the Wild Things Are (3.05)
9. Star Trek (2.70)
10. Julie & Julia (1.35)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (14.25)
2. A Serious Man (10.04)
3. Inglorious Bastards (8.63)
4. Up (7.07)
5. 500 Days of Summer (6.88)

6. Sin Nombre (2.41)
7. It's Complicated (2.35)
8. The White Ribbon (1.50)
9. Broken Embraces (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)
-. The Maid (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (22.29)
2. In the Loop (7.33)
3. District 9 (6.03)
4. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.36)
5. An Education (3.51)

6. Precious (3.25)
7. Where the Wild Things Are (2.81)
8. Julie & Julia (1.35)
9. The Informant! (1.00)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (12.44) - LOCK! -
2. Inglorious Bastards (7.17)
3. A Serious Man (6.97)
4. 500 Days of Summer (5.77)
5. Up (5.61)

6. Sin Nombre (2.41)
7. It's Complicated (2.35)
8. The White Ribbon (1.50)
9. Broken Embraces (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)
-. The Maid (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (20.83) - LOCK! -
2. In the Loop (6.22)
3. District 9 (4.92)
4. An Education (3.51)
5. Fantastic Mr. Fox (3.25)
-. Precious (3.25)

7. Where the Wild Things Are (1.70)
8. Julie & Julia (1.35)
9. The Informant! (1.00)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (11.24) - LOCK! -
2. Inglorious Bastards (7.17)
3. A Serious Man (6.62)
4. Up (4.91)
5. Summer Hours (3.67)

6. 500 Days of Summer (3.66)
7. It's Complicated (2.35)
8. A Prophet (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)
-. Sin Nombre (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (19.63) - LOCK! -
2. In the Loop (6.22)
3. District 9 (4.92)
4. An Education (3.51)
5. Fantastic Mr. Fox (2.90)

6. Precious (2.75)
7. Julie & Julia (1.35)
8. The Informant! (1.00)
-. Where the Wild Things Are (1.00)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (9.43) - LOCK! -
2. Inglorious Bastards (5.36)
3. A Serious Man (5.16)
4. In the Loop (5.11)
5. Summer Hours (3.67)

6. 500 Days of Summer (3.66)
7. Up (3.10)
8. It's Complicated (2.35)
9. A Prophet (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (16.56) - LOCK! -
2. District 9 (4.57)
3. Fantastic Mr. Fox (2.55)
4. Precious (2.05)
5. An Education (1.70)

6. Julie & Julia (1.00)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (6.62) - LOCK! -
2. In the Loop (5.11)
3. A Serious Man (4.81)
4. Summer Hours (2.41)
5. Up (2.05)

6. 500 Days of Summer (1.35)
7. A Prophet (1.15)
8. Bright Star (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (10.03) - LOCK! -
2. An Education (1.70)
3. Precious (1.35)
4. District 9 (1.00)
-. Julie & Julia (1.00)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. A Serious Man (4.46)
2. The Hurt Locker (3.81)
3. In the Loop (2.00)
4. Up (1.70)
5. 500 Days of Summer (1.35)

6. A Prophet (1.15)
-. Summer Hours (1.15)
8. Bright Star (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (9.69) - LOCK! -
2. An Education (1.35)
3. District 9 (1.00)
-. Julie & Julia (1.00)
-. Precious (1.00)