BEST PICTURE

New events: Critics Choice Winners, Golden Globe Winners, Nominations from BAFTA, American Cinema Editors and Costume Designers Guild.

FINAL RANKING
1. (1.) The Social Network (67.19!)
2. (4.) The King's Speech (31.74)
3. (3.) Black Swan (31.34)
4. (2.) Inception (30.48)
5. (5.) The Fighter (26.16)

6. (6.) The Kids Are All Right (10.67)
7. (7.) True Grit (8.69)
8. (8.) 127 Hours (5.94)
9. (9.) The Town (5.52)
10. (10.) Winter's Bone (4.73)

11. (11.) Toy Story 3 (4.67)
12. (14.) Alice in Wonderland (1.63)
13. (12.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

Toy Story 3 will be nominated for sure. So the Formula made at least one mistake this year. Tomorow we'll know what the other mistakes are, and if the Formula did better than most Oscar Pundits...

Post Globes Update

This weekend, we had the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards and the nominations from the American Cinema Editors. But, due to a lack of change, I will not update these rankings until tomorrow's BAFTA Nominations.

The most important change of this weekend, happened in the best supporting actress category, where Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) climbed into the top 5 (finally!). Thanks to her Young Actress-win at the Critics Choice Awards, she climbs from number 6 to number 4.

Tomorrow we'll know The Formula's FINAL RESULTS! The following actors need a nomination from BAFTA, or they are out:
* Michelle Williams
* Andrew Garfield
* Mila Kunis
* And last but not least, Toy Story 3 needs a BAFTA nomination for best picture.

You can read the updated CALCULATIONS in excel.

BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (55.39!)
2. (2.) Inception (26.23)
3. (4.) Black Swan (26.07)
4. (3.) The King's Speech (25.65)
5. (5.) The Fighter (23.26)

6. (6.) The Kids Are All Right (8.59)
7. (7.) True Grit (7.50)
8. (8.) 127 Hours (5.94)
9. (9.) The Town (5.52)
10. (10.) Winter's Bone (4.73)

11. (11.) Toy Story 3 (4.23)
12. (12.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
13. (13.) Get Low (0.96)

New events since previous edition:
Directors Guild Nominations
American Society of Cinematographers Nominations
Art Directors Guild Nominations
Cinema Audio Society Nominations
National Society of Film Critics (winners and first runners-up)
Entertainment Weekly's For Your Considerations

Contenders in italic are locks.

In the best picture race it's Toy Story 3 versus Winter's Bone. Both films would probably have done better if they were eligible for the WGA... *sigh* Yes, the Formula has its flaws...

See the CALCULATIONS (in excell).

BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (49.43!)
2. (6.) Inception (22.12)
3. (2.) The King's Speech (21.98)
4. (3.) Black Swan (21.96)
5. (4.) The Fighter (20.03)

6. (5.) The Kids Are All Right (8.59)
7. (8.) True Grit (6.18)
8. (9.) 127 Hours (5.50)
9. (10.) The Town (5.08)
10. (7.) Winter's Bone (4.73)

11. (11.) Toy Story 3 (4.23)
12. (12.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
13. (13.) Get Low (0.52)

New events since previous edition:
Online Film Critics Winners
Producers Guild Nominations
Writers Guild Nominations

Contenders in italic are locks.
The Kids Are All Right lost some points since its PGA nomination. The film is now an Over-estimated comedy

See the CALCULATIONS (in excell).

BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (41.86!)
2. (2.) The King's Speech (17.66)
3. (3.) Black Swan (15.71)
4. (4.) The Fighter (13.78)
5. (5.) The Kids Are All Right (12.27)

6. (6.) Inception (6.29)
7. (7.) Winter's Bone (5.05)
8. (-.) True Grit (2.93)
9. (8.) 127 Hours (2.25)
10. (10.) The Town (1.83)

11. (--.) Toy Story 3 (1.72)
12. (11.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
13. (12.) Get Low (0.84)

New events since previous edition:
Chicago Film Critics Winners
Online Film Critics Nominations
Academy's List of Eligible films
(Carlos, Mother, Of Gods and Men, A Prophet, Lourdes are ineligible)

Contenders in italic are locks.
Here are the CALCULATIONS (in excell)

BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (39.19!)
2. (2.) The King's Speech (17.66)
3. (4.) Black Swan (14.36)
4. (3.) The Fighter (13.78)
5. (5.) The Kids Are All Right (12.27)

6. (6.) Inception (5.20)
7. (7.) Winter's Bone (4.30)
8. (9.) 127 Hours (2.25)
9. (8.) Carlos (2.10)
10. (10.) The Town (1.83)

11. (11.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
12. (12.) Get Low (0.84)
13. (13.) Red (0.80)

Notes
New awards since previous edition:
* Chicago Film Critics Nominations
* Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Winners
* Satellite Awards
* Florida Film Critics Awards

The italic contenders are locks (which means: by the end of the experiment the formula will predict them as nominees).

Do it yourself
I love doing the calculations (it makes me feel like I'm working at Price Waterhouse, counting ballots), but sometimes I'm too lazy to put them up here. That's why I invite you to do this experiment yourself. Don't worry, it's easy!

Here are the Calculations
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here is what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association: the best picture winner receives 1.5 points instead of his previous Chicago nomination point (which was 1 point). The best screenplay winners receive 0.8 points extra in the best picture category. The winning Foreign Language Film receives 0.8 points.

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point extra in column B, C and D.

BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (30.85!)
2. (2.) The King's Speech (15.49)
3. (4.) The Fighter (13.45)
4. (5.) Black Swan (12.68)
5. (6.) The Kids Are All Right (11.94)

6. (2.) Inception (3.78)
7. (9.) Winter's Bone (3.22)
8. (7.) Carlos (2.10)
9. (8.) 127 Hours (1.92)
10. (11.) The Town (1.50)

11. (10.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
12. (15.) Get Low (0.84)
13. (12.) Red (0.80)

Playtime is over
The experiment is updated with the nominations from the Screen Actors Guild and the winners from the San Diego Film Critics. And by now it's getting interesting!

The contenders in italic are locks. Which means this: by the end of this experiment, the Formula will predict those contenders as nominees. The Formula can make wrong predictions, but is right most of the time...

We all ready have six locks in the best picture race, and four locks in the best actor and best actress race. But the fight for the remaining slots seem more fun and exciting than last year.

Have a look.

BEST PICTURE

1. The Social Network (10.44) - Lock!
2. Inception (3.78)
-. The King's Speech (3.78)
4. The Fighter (2.94)
5. Black Swan (2.61)

6. The Kids Are All Right (2.14)
7. Carlos (2.10)
8. 127 Hours (1.48)
9. Winter's Bone (1.39)
10. The Ghost Writer (1.35)

11. The Town (1.06)
12. Red (0.80)

(The Globe nominations are out! Here's the result for the experiment)

BEST PICTURE

1. The Social Network (8.87)
2. Carlos (2.10)
3. Inception (1.39)
-. The King's Speech (1.39)
-. Winter's Bone (1.39)

6. The Ghost Writer (1.35)
7. The Kids Are All Right (1.07)
8. 127 Hours (1.06)
-. The Town (1.06)


10. Animal Kingdom (0.40)
--. Blue Valentine (0.40)
--. Get Low (0.40)

New Awards
This is a new update of the rankings of the experiment with the winners from LAFCA, NYFCC, the Southeastern Film Critics and the Top 10 from the BFCA.

At this stage we had three Top Tens: from NBR, Southeastern Film Critics and BFCA. Seven films were on all three of them: The Social Network, Inception, The King's Speech, Winter's Bone, The Fighter, Toy Story 3 and True Grit. Will these seven films be nominated for best picture? It's very likely at this point.

BEST PICTURE

The Experiment has begun!!!

Thanks to the Satellite Nominations and winners from the European Film Awards and the National Board of Review we have our first standings. So with no further ado... Let's take a look!

1. The Social Network (2.91)
2. The Ghost Writer (1.35)
3. Inception (0.73)
-. The King's Speech (0.73)
-. The Town (0.73)
-. Winter's Bone (0.73)

7. 127 Hours (0.40)
-. Animal Kingdom (0.40)
-. Blue Valentine (0.40)
-. Get Low (0.40)
-. The Kids Are All Right (0.40)

How to read this
First things first, for everyone new here, the experiment is no buzz-o-meter. It's more like an award-meter: if you win awards you receive points. Some critics say that this is the experiment's biggest weakness, but if you look at its prediction power, I'd call it its strength!

The Social Network received points because it won the NBR and received a Satellite nomination, The Ghost Writer won the EFA, while Inception, The King's Speech, The Town and Winter's Bone are the only films in the NBR Top 10 to be nominated for the Best Picture Satellite.

You can download the calculations (in excell) HERE!

Exactly one year ago, the future Oscar Winner was all ready on this list! (But so was Bright Star)

(Next sunday the Award Season starts for real, when in just a couple of days the real big guns like the Los Angeles Film Critics, the New York Film Critics and the Golden Globes all hand out awards, runners-up or nominations.)

Last Update

Today the last guild nominees of the season were announced: the Costume Designers Guild. It led to two minor changes in the best picture standings:

1. Avatar jumped over The Hurt Locker to second place.
2. Up sank to 14th place, and was replaced by 500 Days of Summer.

The current standings are on my site, where you can compare it with the standings from other years.

I wish you all a happy nomination day :-)

BEST PICTURE

1. Up in the Air (42.64)
2. The Hurt Locker (23.45)
3. Avatar (23.38)
4. Precious (22.60)
5. District 9 (11.00)

6. Inglorious Bastards (10.44)
7. Star Trek (5.46)
8. An Education (4.99)
9. Julie & Julia (4.39)
10. Invictus (4.20)

11. Nine (3.46)
12. A Serious Man (3.24)
13. Up (3.02)

Note
This is it! This year's Oscar Experiment is over. Now we just have to wait until Nomination Morning to see how well or how bad we have done. Or we can speculate... My speculation is that the Formula will score a decent 38 out of 45 (or 84.4%).

Let me specify that number category per category...

In the Best Picture Category there are seven locks (Avatar, Basters, The Hurt Locker, An Education, Precious, District 9, Up in the Air). I think Invictus is a safe number eight. The Formula says the remaining two spots will be taken by Star Trek and Julie & Julia. I rather expect Up and A Serious Man.

So the Formula might score a 8 out of 10 in the Best Picture Category.

BEST PICTURE

1. Up in the Air (41.62)
2. The Hurt Locker (22.58)
3. Avatar (21.92)
4. Precious (21.58)
5. District 9 (10.56)

6. Inglorious Bastards (10.44)
7. Star Trek (5.02)
8. An Education (4.57)
9. Julie & Julia (4.39)
10. Invictus (4.20)

11. Nine (3.46)
12. A Serious Man (3.24)
13. Up (3.02)

Note
The next update (22/1) will be my last. By then I want to be ready to compare the Formula's predictionw with my own. But what would be good predictions in this category? Locks: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Basterds, District 9, Precious, Up in the Air, An Education. What else? Help needed!

P.S.: Since they failed to win any Golden Globe, The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds are now official Too Early Front Runners (hence their scores are divided by 2.5).

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (43.97)
2. Up in the Air (39.78)
3. Inglorious Bastards (23.36)
4. Precious (21.58)
5. Avatar (18.74)

6. District 9 (10.56)
7. Star Trek (5.02)
8. An Education (4.57)
9. Invictus (4.20)
10. Nine (3.46)

11. Julie & Julia (3.31)
12. A Serious Man (3.24)
13. Up (3.02)

Note
I don't feel safe about these predictions at all! There is a certain rule within the Formula that states:

If a film is nominated for both the WGA and the PGA, then the producers receive 1 point, and the directors 2 points.

But that is a rule from a time when the Producers Guild had five, not ten nominations. If the PGA would have only five nominees, would Precious have been among them? Or Star Trek? Or District 9?

It's also a rule from a time when all the important screenplay contenders were eligible for the Writers Guild. If District 9, An Education, Fantastic Mr. Fox and In the Loop were eligible, would Precious have been a WGA nominee? Or Star Trek?

So I have no idea how accurate these predictions are anymore... Aaaarrgh! (might join a self-help support group soon!)

Nine Note: Since Nine failed to get a Writers Guild Nomination, it's points got divided by 2.5 again. Only if the film wins a Golden Globe, it will jump back again in the top 10. (see The Formula's Most Important Rule).

Next up: The winners from the Broadcast Film Critics (1/15) and the Golden Globes (1/17). Next update 1/18. The end is near!

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (37.15)
2. Up in the Air (33.40)
3. Inglorious Bastards (22.48)
4. Precious (18.10)
5. Avatar (11.92)
6. Nine (9.17)
7. District 9 (8.46)
8. An Education (4.89)
9. Invictus (4.20)
10. Star Trek (2.46)
--. Up (2.46)

12. A Serious Man (1.67)
13. 500 Days of Summer (1.32)
14. The White Ribbon (1.28)
15. Julie & Julia (1.24)

Note
There's one important thing: the rankings are not that important. The Formula does not predict who will WIN! Only who will be nominated. So that Avatar is on the fifth instead of first place, is not that important.

It does seem that there are eleven films vying for a place in the Top 10. If the ranking stays like this and Star Trek and Up tie for tenth place, we'll use the Tie Breaker, which means Up will be in, and Star Trek will be out. (Nine needs to win a Golden Globe to stay safe).

Next: The Writers Guild Nominations on january 11 and the American Cinema Editors on january 12! (new update january 13)

P.S. The bold ones are locks for a nomination.

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (34.19)
2. Up in the Air (30.94)
3. Inglorious Bastards (19.20)
4. Precious (15.64)
5. Nine (9.17)
6. District 9 (8.46)
7. An Education (4.89)
8. Invictus (4.20)
9. Avatar (2.86)
10. Star Trek (2.46)
--. Up (2.46)

12. A Serious Man (1.67)
13. 500 Days of Summer (1.32)
14. Julie & Julia (1.24)
15. The White Ribbon (0.94)

Note
The Producers Guild Nominations are in! And it's an exciting list full of movies I really love (The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Up, Star Trek, District 9). Maybe the Academy's move to ten best picture nominees isn't so bad after all...

But back to the Formula. What's Nine still doing there? If, and only IF Nine doesn't win any Golden Globe, it's points will be divided by 2.5 and it will leave the top 10 (see the Formula's most important rule).

Unfortunately, I still believe Nine is the frontrunner for the Best Picture - Comedy or Musical Golden Globe. So Nine is probably here to stay. (Unless the unlikely event that the Formula is wrong, but we don't have such absurd thoughts)

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (29.73)
2. Inglorious Bastards (14.74)
3. Precious (11.18)
4. Up in the Air (10.96)
5. Nine (9.17)

6. An Education (2.83)
7. Invictus (2.14)
8. A Serious Man (1.67)
9. 500 Days of Summer (1.32)
10. Julie & Julia (1.24)

11. The White Ribbon (0.94)
12. It's Complicated (0.89)
13. The Last Station (0.86)
14. The Messenger (0.84)
15. Avatar (0.80)

Note
The last update before the Producers Guild (1/5) and Directors Guild (1/7) will radically change the rankings. New awards since the last update are the National Society of Film Critics, the nominations from the Online Film Critics and the 'for your considerations' from Entertainment Weekly.

I expect this to be the last update without an Avatar in the Best Picture Top 10. (The bold titles are locks)

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (26.20)
2. Inglorious Bastards (13.72)
3. Precious (11.18)
4. Up in the Air (10.54)
5. Nine (9.17)

6. An Education (2.83)
7. Invictus (2.14)
8. 500 Days of Summer (1.32)
9. Julie & Julia (1.24)
10. The White Ribbon (0.94)

11. A Serious Man (0.91)
12. It's Complicated (0.89)
13. The Last Station (0.86)

Note
No big awards, no big changes, but I wanted to end the year with an update. The Academy published the list of eligible films. Since Summer Hours, Seraphine and A Prophet are not on that list, I deleted them from the Formula.

The awards handed out since the last update were the Satellite Awards, and the film critics from Chicago and Florida.

Enjoy!

And a happy new year!

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (24.38) - LOCK! -
2. Inglorious Bastards (13.72) - LOCK! -
3. Precious (10.36) - LOCK! -
4. Up in the Air (9.58) - LOCK! -
5. Nine (8.67) - LOCK! -

6. An Education (2.83)
7. Invictus (2.14)
8. Julie & Julia (1.24)
9. Summer Hours (1.00)
10. A Serious Man (0.91)

11 It's Complicated (0.89)
12. The Last Station (0.86)
13. The Messenger (0.84)

Note
This is an update of Sijmen's Oscar Experiment with the Dallas-Forth Worth Film Critics Winners and the nominations from the Chicago Film Critics and the Screen Actors Guild.

As you'll see, the acting races are over. Best Actress is the only category where something surprising could happen. From now on, the changes will be smaller, and the focus will be on the best picture and best director category, where nothing is for sure yet!

But it's interesting to see that Avatar is not in the Best Picture top 10 anymore. (it's currently at number 14). Not a tragedy yet, but it's not good either...

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (7.46) - LOCK! -
2. Up in the Air (6.88) - LOCK! -
3. Inglorious Bastards (2.18)
4. Invictus (1.26)
5. Precious (1.22)

6. Summer Hours (1.00)
7. It's Complicated (0.89)
8. Avatar (0.80)
-. Julie & Julia (0.80)
10. An Education (0.73)

11. Nine (0.72)
12. Fantastic Mr. Fox (0.65)
13. 500 Days of Summer (0.64)

Note
This is an update with lots of new awards: most notably the nominations from the Golden Globes, but also the runners-up from the New York Film Critics Circle, the winners from the San Diego and the Southeastern Film Critics.