BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (30.85!)
2. (2.) The King's Speech (15.49)
3. (4.) The Fighter (13.45)
4. (5.) Black Swan (12.68)
5. (6.) The Kids Are All Right (11.94)

6. (2.) Inception (3.78)
7. (9.) Winter's Bone (3.22)
8. (7.) Carlos (2.10)
9. (8.) 127 Hours (1.92)
10. (11.) The Town (1.50)

11. (10.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
12. (15.) Get Low (0.84)
13. (12.) Red (0.80)

Playtime is over
The experiment is updated with the nominations from the Screen Actors Guild and the winners from the San Diego Film Critics. And by now it's getting interesting!

The contenders in italic are locks. Which means this: by the end of this experiment, the Formula will predict those contenders as nominees. The Formula can make wrong predictions, but is right most of the time...

We all ready have six locks in the best picture race, and four locks in the best actor and best actress race. But the fight for the remaining slots seem more fun and exciting than last year.

Have a look.

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (25.90)
2. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (10.92)
3. (6.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (9.50)
4. (5.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (9.15)
5. (9.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (7.00)

6. (3.) Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
7. (4.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (2.22)
8. (6.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (1.53)
9. (8.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
10. (11.) Debra Granik, Winter's Bone (0.67)

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (17.16)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (10.33)
3. (9.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)
-. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (7.22)
5. (5.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)

Still in the running:
6. (-.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (4.00)
7. (5.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (3.11)

The race is over for:
8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)

Oscar Winners who can still sneak in*:
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

* Oscar Winners have a bigger chance to sneak into the top 5, since they can profit from the Meryl Streep Rule

Best Actress

1. (3.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (11.19)
2. (1.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (10.94)
-. (4.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (10.94)
4. (1.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (9.33)
5. (-.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)

Still in the running:
6. (9.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (3.97)
7. (5.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (3.11)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)

The race is over (unfortunatley):
9. (6.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.47)
10. (11.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)

Oscarwinners who still can sneak in:
11. (9.) Helen Mirren, The Tempest (1.00) (if eligible?)
--. (9.) Tilda Swinton, I Am Love (1.00)

Supporting Actor

1. (1.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (13.05)
2. (2.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (10.33)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
4. (5.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (7.11)
5. (-.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (5.61)

Still in the running:
6. (4.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (5.22)
7. (6.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)

Oscar winners who can still sneak in:
8. (7.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (7.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

The race is over for:
8. (7.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)

Supporting Actress

1. (2.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (11.33)
2. (3.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (9.33)
-. (1.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (9.33)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (8.22)
-. (5.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (8.22)

With a little bit of luck:
6. (7.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (5.61)

The race is over for:
7. (5.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (1.) The King's Speech (8.58)
2. (2.) The Kids Are All Right (7.27)
3. (3.) Inception (4.51)
4. (4.) Toy Story 3 (3.10)
5. (5.) Buried (3.00)

6. (6.) Carlos (2.41)
7. (-.) Four Lions (1,50)
8. (-.) I Am Love
-. (7.) Mother (1.15)
-. (7.) Of Gods and Men (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (19.22)
2. (2.) 127 Hours (4.92)
3. (3.) Winter's Bone (2.40)
4. (4.) The Town (1.70)
5. (5.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

6. (6.) Fair Game (1.00)
-. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. (6.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (24.38) - LOCK! -
2. Inglorious Bastards (13.72) - LOCK! -
3. Precious (10.36) - LOCK! -
4. Up in the Air (9.58) - LOCK! -
5. Nine (8.67) - LOCK! -

6. An Education (2.83)
7. Invictus (2.14)
8. Julie & Julia (1.24)
9. Summer Hours (1.00)
10. A Serious Man (0.91)

11 It's Complicated (0.89)
12. The Last Station (0.86)
13. The Messenger (0.84)

Note
This is an update of Sijmen's Oscar Experiment with the Dallas-Forth Worth Film Critics Winners and the nominations from the Chicago Film Critics and the Screen Actors Guild.

As you'll see, the acting races are over. Best Actress is the only category where something surprising could happen. From now on, the changes will be smaller, and the focus will be on the best picture and best director category, where nothing is for sure yet!

But it's interesting to see that Avatar is not in the Best Picture top 10 anymore. (it's currently at number 14). Not a tragedy yet, but it's not good either...

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (20.12) - LOCK! -
2. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (11.62) - LOCK! -
3. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (6.37)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (5.77)
5. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)

6. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.25)
7. Lone Scherfig, An Education (1.70)
8. Wes Anderson, Fantastic Mr. Fox (1.58)
9. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.51)
10. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (1.31)

Best Actor

LOCKS
1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (16.14)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (13.55)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (6.22)

Thanks for playing, maybe next time
6. Matt Damon, The Informant (2.34)
-. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.34)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
It's over. It's mathematically impossible for any other actor to crack into the top 5.

Best Actress

LOCKS
1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (15.16)
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (13.28)
3. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)
4. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (7.22)

Other players
5. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (6.11) - Strong Contender!
6. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11) - Game Over...
7. Tilda Swinton, Julia (2.00) - Sandra's biggest thread
9. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86) - Still Possible

Game Over
10. Penelope Cruz, Broken Embraces (1.00) - Unless a miracle happens
--. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)


Tilda Swinton and Marion Cotillard are former Oscar winners, so they could profit from the Meryl Streep Rule. They just need one more award or nomination to take Sandra Bullock's fifth spot.

Supporting Actor

LOCKS
1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (21.49)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (13.55)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)

Thanks for playing, maybe next time
6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.02)
-. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
9. James McAvoy, The Last Station (0.30)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (0.30)

Supporting Actress

LOCKS
1. Mo'nique, Precious (19.88)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (13.55)
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (11.44)
4. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (9.33)

Fighting for fifth spot
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (5.22)
6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (4.00)

Thanks for playing, maybe next time
6. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (1.50)
7. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (1.00)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (11.24) - LOCK! -
2. Inglorious Bastards (7.17)
3. A Serious Man (6.62)
4. Up (4.91)
5. Summer Hours (3.67)

6. 500 Days of Summer (3.66)
7. It's Complicated (2.35)
8. A Prophet (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)
-. Sin Nombre (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (19.63) - LOCK! -
2. In the Loop (6.22)
3. District 9 (4.92)
4. An Education (3.51)
5. Fantastic Mr. Fox (2.90)

6. Precious (2.75)
7. Julie & Julia (1.35)
8. The Informant! (1.00)
-. Where the Wild Things Are (1.00)