Supporting Actor

1. (1.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (23.60)
2. (2.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (17.99)
3. (3.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (10.44)
4. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
5. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (8.55)

6. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (7.83)
7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
8. (-.) Armie Hammer, The Social Network (1.00)
9. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)
-. (-.) Pete Postlethwaite, The Town (0.30)

This seems the most logic prediction. Hurray for two heroes of mine finally getting some Oscar recognition: Bale and Ruffalo!

Post Globes Update

This weekend, we had the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards and the nominations from the American Cinema Editors. But, due to a lack of change, I will not update these rankings until tomorrow's BAFTA Nominations.

The most important change of this weekend, happened in the best supporting actress category, where Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) climbed into the top 5 (finally!). Thanks to her Young Actress-win at the Critics Choice Awards, she climbs from number 6 to number 4.

Tomorrow we'll know The Formula's FINAL RESULTS! The following actors need a nomination from BAFTA, or they are out:
* Michelle Williams
* Andrew Garfield
* Mila Kunis
* And last but not least, Toy Story 3 needs a BAFTA nomination for best picture.

You can read the updated CALCULATIONS in excel.

Supporting Actor

1. (1.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (18.38)
2. (2.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (16.88)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
-. (3.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (9.33)
5. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (7.83)

6. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (7.44)

7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
8. (-.) Armie Hammer, The Social Network (1.00)
9. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

Supporting Actor

1. (1.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (17.27)
2. (2.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (15.27)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
-. (3.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (9.33)
5. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (7.83)

6. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (7.44)

7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
8. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

Supporting Actor

1. (1.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (16.77)
2. (2.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (15.27)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
-. (4.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (9.33)
5. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (7.83)

6. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (7.44)

7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
8. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

It's Garfield vs Hawkes in a very close race...

Supporting Actor

1. (2.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (15.16)
2. (1.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (14.16)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
4. (4.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (8.22)
5. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (6.72)

6. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (6.33)
7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)

8. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

Supporting Actor

1. (1.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (13.05)
2. (2.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (10.33)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
4. (5.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (7.11)
5. (-.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (5.61)

Still in the running:
6. (4.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (5.22)
7. (6.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)

Oscar winners who can still sneak in:
8. (7.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (7.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

The race is over for:
8. (7.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)

Supporting Actor

1. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (8.94) - Lock!
2. Christian Bale, The Fighter (6.22) - Lock!
3. Jeremy Renner, The Town (5.22)
4. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (3.11)
5. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (3.00)

6. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
7. Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (1.00)
-. Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (1.00)
-. Sean Penn, Fair Game (1.00)

Supporting Actor

1. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (6.83)
2. Christian Bale, The Fighter (4.11)
3. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (3.00)

4. Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (1.00)
-. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (1.00)
-. Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (1.00)
-. Sean Penn, Fair Game (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Town (1.00)

Supporting Actor

1. Christian Bale, The Fighter (4.11)

2. Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (1.00)
-. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (1.00)
-. Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (1.00)
-. Sean Penn, Fair Game (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Town (1.00)
-. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (1.00)

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (32.54)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (14.66)
3. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (8.33)
4. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)

6. Alfred Molina, An Education (2.11)
7. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
-. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.43)

8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
10. Alec Baldwin, It's Complicated (0.71)

Note
This category is as open as it was in early December. Waltz and Harrelson are locks. Tucci is a strong possibility. But the remaining two spots are impossible to predict. I would pick Molina for fourth place. Who is Fifth? Plummer? Mackie? Baldwin? Your guess is as good as mine.

Let's pick Mackie. That would mean the Formula would have a disastrous 3 out of 5.

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (31.43)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (14.66)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)

6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
7. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
10. Paul Schneider, Bright Star (0.45)

Note
Only two locks: Waltz and Harrelson. The other three spots are impossible to predict. I think my prediction will include Waltz, Harrelson, Mackie, Molina and... ???

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (27.32)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (14.66)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)

6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
7. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
10. Paul Schneider, Bright Star (0.45)

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (27.32)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (14.66)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)

6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
7. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
10. Paul Schneider, Bright Star (0.45)

Note
The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best supporting actor...

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (26.82)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (16.66)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)

6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
7. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
10. Paul Schneider, Bright Star (0.45)

Note
The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best supporting actor... Aaargh! How can the Formula do its work if all the awards go to the same actor over and over and over again? Sure he was fun, but was Waltz really that good?
Congrats to the National Board of Review for being the one and only year-end award not awarding Christoph Waltz (they went for Harrelson).

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (24.10)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (13.55)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)

6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.02)
-. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
9. James McAvoy, The Last Station (0.30)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (0.30)

Note
The bold ones are locks. That's our second fixed category.

Supporting Actor

LOCKS
1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (21.49)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (13.55)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)

Thanks for playing, maybe next time
6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.02)
-. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
9. James McAvoy, The Last Station (0.30)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (0.30)

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (12.55) - LOCK! -
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (8.33) - LOCK! -
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (4.11)

4. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (2.00)
-. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (2.00)
-. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (2.00)
-. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (2.00)
8. James McAvoy, The Last Station (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (1.00)

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds (7.22)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (4.11)
3. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (2.00)

4. James McAvoy, The Last Station (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (1.00)

Supporting Actor

1. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (4.11)
-. Christopher Waltz, Inglourious Basterds (4.11)
3. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (2.00)

4. James McAvoy, The Last Station (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (1.00)