BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (39.19!)
2. (2.) The King's Speech (17.66)
3. (4.) Black Swan (14.36)
4. (3.) The Fighter (13.78)
5. (5.) The Kids Are All Right (12.27)

6. (6.) Inception (5.20)
7. (7.) Winter's Bone (4.30)
8. (9.) 127 Hours (2.25)
9. (8.) Carlos (2.10)
10. (10.) The Town (1.83)

11. (11.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
12. (12.) Get Low (0.84)
13. (13.) Red (0.80)

Notes
New awards since previous edition:
* Chicago Film Critics Nominations
* Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Winners
* Satellite Awards
* Florida Film Critics Awards

The italic contenders are locks (which means: by the end of the experiment the formula will predict them as nominees).

Do it yourself
I love doing the calculations (it makes me feel like I'm working at Price Waterhouse, counting ballots), but sometimes I'm too lazy to put them up here. That's why I invite you to do this experiment yourself. Don't worry, it's easy!

Here are the Calculations
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here is what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association: the best picture winner receives 1.5 points instead of his previous Chicago nomination point (which was 1 point). The best screenplay winners receive 0.8 points extra in the best picture category. The winning Foreign Language Film receives 0.8 points.

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point extra in column B, C and D.

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (33.47)
2. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (12.94)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (10.61)
4. (4.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (9.15)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (7.00)

6. (7.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (3.16)
7. (6.) Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
8. (8.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (1.53)
9. (10.) Debra Granik, Winter's Bone (1.35)
10. (9.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

Do it yourself
Here are the Calculations
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here is what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association: the best director winner receives 1.5 points instead of his previous Chicago nomination point (which was 1 point). The directors of the best screenplay winners receive 0.8 points extra. The director of the winning Foreign Language Film receives 0.8 points.

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point.

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (20.38)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (11.44)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (9.94)
4. (6.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (7.22)
5. (3.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (7.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (4.22)
7. (5.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)

8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

Note
In the acting categories, there are only three remaining points left. So mathematically Gosling and Wahlberg still have a shot to beat Duvall and Bridges, although their chances are quiet slim...
(That 'three points left rule' also aplies to the other acting categories, so you can calculate yourself who still has a chance, and who's out)

Best Actress

1. (2.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (15.27)
2. (1.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (12.30)
3. (2.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (12.05)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (9.33)
5. (7.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)

6. (5.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
7. (6.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (3.97)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)

9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.47)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)

Supporting Actor

1. (2.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (15.16)
2. (1.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (14.16)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
4. (4.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (8.22)
5. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (6.72)

6. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (6.33)
7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)

8. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

Supporting Actress

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (15.66)
2. (2.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (10.94)
3. (2.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (10.44)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (9.33)
5. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (8.22)

6. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (6.72)

7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Do it yourself
Here are the Calculations
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here's what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association: winners receive 1.5 points instead of their previous Chicago nomination points (which was 1 point). Winners of the best promising actor and/or actress receive 1 point extra if they are also nominated in the regular best acting categories (actor/actress, leading/supporting).

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point.

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (1.) The King's Speech (10.89)
2. (2.) The Kids Are All Right (8.73)
3. (3.) Inception (7.93)
4. (-.) Black Swan (3.10)
5. (5.) Buried (3.00)

6. (7.) Four Lions (2.61)
7. (6.) Carlos (2.41)
7. (8.) I Am Love (2.41)
9. (11.) Biutiful (2.26)
10. (8.) Of Gods and Men (1.15)
--. (8.) Mother (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (25.45)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (5.27)
3. (-.) Toy Story 3 (4.91)
4. (3.) Winter's Bone (4.21)
5. (-.) True Grit (2.40)

6. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2.26)
7. (4.) The Town (2.05)
8. (5.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
9. (6.) Fair Game (1.00)
-. (-.) Rabbit Hole (1.00)
-. (6.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

Note
In the previous editions I had Toy Story 3 in the original screenplay category, which was a mistake. Sequals are always based on material previously produced or published, so they are always 'adapted screenplays'. If you see mistakes like that, always feel free to point them out to me.

Do it yourself
Here are the Calculations.
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here's what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association Awards: the winners get 1.5 points instead of their previous Chicago nomination points (which was 1 point). In the screenplay category, the winning Foreign Language Film receive 0.8 points.

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point.

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (26.20)
2. Inglorious Bastards (13.72)
3. Precious (11.18)
4. Up in the Air (10.54)
5. Nine (9.17)

6. An Education (2.83)
7. Invictus (2.14)
8. 500 Days of Summer (1.32)
9. Julie & Julia (1.24)
10. The White Ribbon (0.94)

11. A Serious Man (0.91)
12. It's Complicated (0.89)
13. The Last Station (0.86)

Note
No big awards, no big changes, but I wanted to end the year with an update. The Academy published the list of eligible films. Since Summer Hours, Seraphine and A Prophet are not on that list, I deleted them from the Formula.

The awards handed out since the last update were the Satellite Awards, and the film critics from Chicago and Florida.

Enjoy!

And a happy new year!

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (22.03)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (11.62)
3. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (7.51)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (6.68)
5. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)

6. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.25)
7. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.94)
8. Lone Scherfig, An Education (1.70)
9. Wes Anderson, Fantastic Mr. Fox (1.58)
10. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (1.31)

Note
There are no locks yet, but Bigelow, Tarantino and Reitman are very strong contenders. I expect Lee Daniels and James Cameron to join them...

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (17.75)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (13.55)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (7.22)

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
7. Matt Damon, The Informant (2.34)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
The bold ones are locks! These are the predicted best actor nominations, and it's mathematically impossible for any actor to crack into the top 5.

Best Actress

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (16.77)
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (13.71)
3. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (8.83)
4. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)
5. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (6.11)

6. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)
7. Tilda Swinton, Julia (2.00)
8. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
9. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.50)
10. Sandra Bullock, The Proposal (1.23)

Note
The bold ones are locks. Only Shohreh Aghdashloo and The Proposal's Sandra Bullock are mathematically out...

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (24.10)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (13.55)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)

6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.02)
-. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
9. James McAvoy, The Last Station (0.30)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (0.30)

Note
The bold ones are locks. That's our second fixed category.

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (22.49)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (13.55)
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (11.44)
4. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (9.33)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (5.22)

6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (4.00)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.45)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
The bold ones are locks. If I would predict the nominees myself, I would pick Samantha Morton for the fifth spot. But history learned that the Formula is better at this than me, so...

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (12.44) - LOCK! -
2. Inglorious Bastards (7.17)
3. A Serious Man (6.97)
4. 500 Days of Summer (5.77)
5. Up (5.61)

6. Sin Nombre (2.41)
7. It's Complicated (2.35)
8. The White Ribbon (1.50)
9. Broken Embraces (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)
-. The Maid (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (20.83) - LOCK! -
2. In the Loop (6.22)
3. District 9 (4.92)
4. An Education (3.51)
5. Fantastic Mr. Fox (3.25)
-. Precious (3.25)

7. Where the Wild Things Are (1.70)
8. Julie & Julia (1.35)
9. The Informant! (1.00)