BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (39.19!)
2. (2.) The King's Speech (17.66)
3. (4.) Black Swan (14.36)
4. (3.) The Fighter (13.78)
5. (5.) The Kids Are All Right (12.27)

6. (6.) Inception (5.20)
7. (7.) Winter's Bone (4.30)
8. (9.) 127 Hours (2.25)
9. (8.) Carlos (2.10)
10. (10.) The Town (1.83)

11. (11.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
12. (12.) Get Low (0.84)
13. (13.) Red (0.80)

Notes
New awards since previous edition:
* Chicago Film Critics Nominations
* Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Winners
* Satellite Awards
* Florida Film Critics Awards

The italic contenders are locks (which means: by the end of the experiment the formula will predict them as nominees).

Do it yourself
I love doing the calculations (it makes me feel like I'm working at Price Waterhouse, counting ballots), but sometimes I'm too lazy to put them up here. That's why I invite you to do this experiment yourself. Don't worry, it's easy!

Here are the Calculations
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here is what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association: the best picture winner receives 1.5 points instead of his previous Chicago nomination point (which was 1 point). The best screenplay winners receive 0.8 points extra in the best picture category. The winning Foreign Language Film receives 0.8 points.

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point extra in column B, C and D.

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (33.47)
2. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (12.94)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (10.61)
4. (4.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (9.15)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (7.00)

6. (7.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (3.16)
7. (6.) Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
8. (8.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (1.53)
9. (10.) Debra Granik, Winter's Bone (1.35)
10. (9.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

Do it yourself
Here are the Calculations
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here is what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association: the best director winner receives 1.5 points instead of his previous Chicago nomination point (which was 1 point). The directors of the best screenplay winners receive 0.8 points extra. The director of the winning Foreign Language Film receives 0.8 points.

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point.

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (20.38)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (11.44)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (9.94)
4. (6.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (7.22)
5. (3.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (7.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (4.22)
7. (5.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)

8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

Note
In the acting categories, there are only three remaining points left. So mathematically Gosling and Wahlberg still have a shot to beat Duvall and Bridges, although their chances are quiet slim...
(That 'three points left rule' also aplies to the other acting categories, so you can calculate yourself who still has a chance, and who's out)

Best Actress

1. (2.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (15.27)
2. (1.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (12.30)
3. (2.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (12.05)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (9.33)
5. (7.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)

6. (5.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
7. (6.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (3.97)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)

9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.47)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)

Supporting Actor

1. (2.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (15.16)
2. (1.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (14.16)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
4. (4.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (8.22)
5. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (6.72)

6. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (6.33)
7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)

8. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

Supporting Actress

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (15.66)
2. (2.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (10.94)
3. (2.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (10.44)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (9.33)
5. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (8.22)

6. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (6.72)

7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Do it yourself
Here are the Calculations
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here's what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association: winners receive 1.5 points instead of their previous Chicago nomination points (which was 1 point). Winners of the best promising actor and/or actress receive 1 point extra if they are also nominated in the regular best acting categories (actor/actress, leading/supporting).

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point.

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (1.) The King's Speech (10.89)
2. (2.) The Kids Are All Right (8.73)
3. (3.) Inception (7.93)
4. (-.) Black Swan (3.10)
5. (5.) Buried (3.00)

6. (7.) Four Lions (2.61)
7. (6.) Carlos (2.41)
7. (8.) I Am Love (2.41)
9. (11.) Biutiful (2.26)
10. (8.) Of Gods and Men (1.15)
--. (8.) Mother (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (25.45)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (5.27)
3. (-.) Toy Story 3 (4.91)
4. (3.) Winter's Bone (4.21)
5. (-.) True Grit (2.40)

6. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2.26)
7. (4.) The Town (2.05)
8. (5.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
9. (6.) Fair Game (1.00)
-. (-.) Rabbit Hole (1.00)
-. (6.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

Note
In the previous editions I had Toy Story 3 in the original screenplay category, which was a mistake. Sequals are always based on material previously produced or published, so they are always 'adapted screenplays'. If you see mistakes like that, always feel free to point them out to me.

Do it yourself
Here are the Calculations.
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here's what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association Awards: the winners get 1.5 points instead of their previous Chicago nomination points (which was 1 point). In the screenplay category, the winning Foreign Language Film receive 0.8 points.

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point.

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (24.38) - LOCK! -
2. Inglorious Bastards (13.72) - LOCK! -
3. Precious (10.36) - LOCK! -
4. Up in the Air (9.58) - LOCK! -
5. Nine (8.67) - LOCK! -

6. An Education (2.83)
7. Invictus (2.14)
8. Julie & Julia (1.24)
9. Summer Hours (1.00)
10. A Serious Man (0.91)

11 It's Complicated (0.89)
12. The Last Station (0.86)
13. The Messenger (0.84)

Note
This is an update of Sijmen's Oscar Experiment with the Dallas-Forth Worth Film Critics Winners and the nominations from the Chicago Film Critics and the Screen Actors Guild.

As you'll see, the acting races are over. Best Actress is the only category where something surprising could happen. From now on, the changes will be smaller, and the focus will be on the best picture and best director category, where nothing is for sure yet!

But it's interesting to see that Avatar is not in the Best Picture top 10 anymore. (it's currently at number 14). Not a tragedy yet, but it's not good either...

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (20.12) - LOCK! -
2. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (11.62) - LOCK! -
3. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (6.37)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (5.77)
5. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)

6. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.25)
7. Lone Scherfig, An Education (1.70)
8. Wes Anderson, Fantastic Mr. Fox (1.58)
9. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.51)
10. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (1.31)

Best Actor

LOCKS
1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (16.14)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (13.55)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (6.22)

Thanks for playing, maybe next time
6. Matt Damon, The Informant (2.34)
-. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.34)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
It's over. It's mathematically impossible for any other actor to crack into the top 5.

Best Actress

LOCKS
1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (15.16)
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (13.28)
3. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)
4. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (7.22)

Other players
5. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (6.11) - Strong Contender!
6. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11) - Game Over...
7. Tilda Swinton, Julia (2.00) - Sandra's biggest thread
9. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86) - Still Possible

Game Over
10. Penelope Cruz, Broken Embraces (1.00) - Unless a miracle happens
--. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)


Tilda Swinton and Marion Cotillard are former Oscar winners, so they could profit from the Meryl Streep Rule. They just need one more award or nomination to take Sandra Bullock's fifth spot.

Supporting Actor

LOCKS
1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (21.49)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (13.55)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)

Thanks for playing, maybe next time
6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.02)
-. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
9. James McAvoy, The Last Station (0.30)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (0.30)

Supporting Actress

LOCKS
1. Mo'nique, Precious (19.88)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (13.55)
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (11.44)
4. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (9.33)

Fighting for fifth spot
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (5.22)
6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (4.00)

Thanks for playing, maybe next time
6. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (1.50)
7. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (1.00)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (11.24) - LOCK! -
2. Inglorious Bastards (7.17)
3. A Serious Man (6.62)
4. Up (4.91)
5. Summer Hours (3.67)

6. 500 Days of Summer (3.66)
7. It's Complicated (2.35)
8. A Prophet (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)
-. Sin Nombre (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (19.63) - LOCK! -
2. In the Loop (6.22)
3. District 9 (4.92)
4. An Education (3.51)
5. Fantastic Mr. Fox (2.90)

6. Precious (2.75)
7. Julie & Julia (1.35)
8. The Informant! (1.00)
-. Where the Wild Things Are (1.00)