Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (28.82)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (15.27)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (12.16)
4. (4.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (9.44)
5. (5.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (6.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5.33)
7. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (5.22)
8. (7.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)
9. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
10. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
--. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
--. (12.) Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version (1.00)

Weirdly enough, this is what everybody else is predicting. Weird, because if I would predict without a Formula, I would go for Bardem instaed of Duvall. On the other hand, I use this Formula because without it, I'm a worthless Oscar predictor.

One side note. If you don't look at the performances, but just at the actors and their body of work up to now, the top 7 should be opside down: Bardem, Gosling and Duvall should be the locks, and Firth, Eisenberg and Franco should be the 'possibles'. Just a thought I had during my morning shower.

Post Globes Update

This weekend, we had the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards and the nominations from the American Cinema Editors. But, due to a lack of change, I will not update these rankings until tomorrow's BAFTA Nominations.

The most important change of this weekend, happened in the best supporting actress category, where Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) climbed into the top 5 (finally!). Thanks to her Young Actress-win at the Critics Choice Awards, she climbs from number 6 to number 4.

Tomorrow we'll know The Formula's FINAL RESULTS! The following actors need a nomination from BAFTA, or they are out:
* Michelle Williams
* Andrew Garfield
* Mila Kunis
* And last but not least, Toy Story 3 needs a BAFTA nomination for best picture.

You can read the updated CALCULATIONS in excel.

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (23.60)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (14.16)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (11.05)
4. (4.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (8.33)
5. (5.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (6.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5.33)
7. (7.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)
8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

This top 5 is final. Whatever happens, nobody else can enter it.

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (22.49)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (12.55)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (11.05)
4. (4.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (8.33)
5. (5.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (6.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5.33)

7. (7.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)
8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (21.99)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (12.55)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (11.05)
4. (4.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (8.33)
5. (4.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (6.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5.33)

7. (7.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)
8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (20.38)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (11.44)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (9.94)
4. (6.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (7.22)
5. (3.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (7.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (4.22)
7. (5.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)

8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

Note
In the acting categories, there are only three remaining points left. So mathematically Gosling and Wahlberg still have a shot to beat Duvall and Bridges, although their chances are quiet slim...
(That 'three points left rule' also aplies to the other acting categories, so you can calculate yourself who still has a chance, and who's out)

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (17.16)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (10.33)
3. (9.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)
-. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (7.22)
5. (5.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)

Still in the running:
6. (-.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (4.00)
7. (5.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (3.11)

The race is over for:
8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)

Oscar Winners who can still sneak in*:
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

* Oscar Winners have a bigger chance to sneak into the top 5, since they can profit from the Meryl Streep Rule

Best Actor

1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech (10.94) - Lock!
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (6.22)
3. James Franco, 127 Hours (3.11)
-. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (3.11)

5. Edgar Ramirez, Carlos (2.00)
-. Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (2.00)
7. Ewan McGregor, The Ghost Writer (1.50)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
-. Robert Duvall, Get Low (1.00)

(I'm surprised that Robert Duvall and Javier Bardem are doing so bad)

Best Actor

1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech (8.83)
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (4.11)
3. Edgar Ramirez, Carlos (2.00)
4. Ewan McGregor, The Ghost Writer (1.50)

5. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
-. Robert Duvall, Get Low (1.00)
-. James Franco, 127 Hours (1.00)
-. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (1.00)

Best Actor

1. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (4.11)
2. Ewan McGregor, The Ghost Writer (1.50)

3. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
-. Robert Duvall, Get Low (1.00)
-. Colin Firth, The King's Speech (1.00)
-. James Franco, 127 Hours (1.00)
-. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (1.00)

Best Actor

1. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (20.99)
2. George Clooney, Up in the Air (19.97)
3. Colin Firth, A Single Man (12.05)
4. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (11.55)
5. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)

6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
7. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)

8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
I would be very surprised if the Formula doesn't score a 5 out of 5 here!

Best Actor

1. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (19.88)
2. George Clooney, Up in the Air (18.86)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (10.44)

6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
7. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
Of all the categories, this is the one I feel the most confident about. Or what do you think?

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (18.86)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (15.77)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (10.44)

6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
7. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
No changes in the acting categories...

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (18.86)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (15.77)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (10.44)

6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best actor...

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (18.86)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (15.77)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (9.94)

6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best actor...

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (17.75)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (13.55)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (7.22)

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
7. Matt Damon, The Informant (2.34)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
The bold ones are locks! These are the predicted best actor nominations, and it's mathematically impossible for any actor to crack into the top 5.

Best Actor

LOCKS
1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (16.14)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (13.55)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (6.22)

Thanks for playing, maybe next time
6. Matt Damon, The Informant (2.34)
-. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.34)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
It's over. It's mathematically impossible for any other actor to crack into the top 5.

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (9.31) - LOCK!
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (8.33) - LOCK!
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (7.22) - LOCK!
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (6.83) - LOCK!
5. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)

6. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)
7. Tahar Rahim, A Prophet (1.50)
8. Matt Damon, The Informant (1.23)
-. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (1.23)
10. Hugh Dancy, Adam (1.00)
-. Johnny Depp, Public Enemies (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Michael Sheen, The Damned United (1.00)

Note
Clooney, Bridges, Freeman and Firth can sleep on both ears, they are in. Who will fill that last remaining spot? I expect a too close to call race betweeen Daniel Day-Lewis, Jeremy Renner and Michael Stuhlbarg. Or will Tobey Maguire conquer them all?

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (5.59) - LOCK! -
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (4.11)
3. Colin Firth, A Single Man (3.11)
4. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (3.00)

5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.00)
-. Hugh Dancy, Adam (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Lofcker (1.00)
-. Johnny Depp, Public Enemies (1.00)
-. Michael Sheen, The Damned United (1.00)

Note
George Clooney won the best actor trophy from the NYFCC, but received no points for it since it was for two films (Up in the Air and Fantastic Mr. Fox). See the Julianne Moore Rule.

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (5.59) - LOCK! -
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (4.11)
3. Colin Firth, A Single Man (3.11)
4. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (3.00)

5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.00)
-. Hugh Dancy, Adam (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Lofcker (1.00)
-. Johnny Depp, Public Enemies (1.00)
-. Michael Sheen, The Damned United (1.00)

Note:
Only one lock now, but that will change once the nominations are announced for the Golden Globes (12/15) and the Screen Actors Guild (12/17). At the end of this week we'll have four of the five nominees in all the acting categories!