BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (49.43!)
2. (6.) Inception (22.12)
3. (2.) The King's Speech (21.98)
4. (3.) Black Swan (21.96)
5. (4.) The Fighter (20.03)

6. (5.) The Kids Are All Right (8.59)
7. (8.) True Grit (6.18)
8. (9.) 127 Hours (5.50)
9. (10.) The Town (5.08)
10. (7.) Winter's Bone (4.73)

11. (11.) Toy Story 3 (4.23)
12. (12.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
13. (13.) Get Low (0.52)

New events since previous edition:
Online Film Critics Winners
Producers Guild Nominations
Writers Guild Nominations

Contenders in italic are locks.
The Kids Are All Right lost some points since its PGA nomination. The film is now an Over-estimated comedy

See the CALCULATIONS (in excell).

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (40.07)
2. (6.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (15.84)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (14.39)
4. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (13.48)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (9.66)

6. (4.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (4.73)
7. (7.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (3.51)
8. (12.) Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (2.31)
9. (13.) Ben Affleck, The Town (2.01)
10. (9.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (22.49)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (12.55)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (11.05)
4. (4.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (8.33)
5. (5.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (6.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5.33)

7. (7.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)
8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

Best Actress

1. (1.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (17.38)
2. (2.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (14.27)
3. (3.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (13.41)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (10.44)
5. (5.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)

6. (6.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
7. (7.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (3.97)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)

9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.89)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)

The race for that fifth spot is still wide open...

Supporting Actor

1. (1.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (17.27)
2. (2.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (15.27)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
-. (3.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (9.33)
5. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (7.83)

6. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (7.44)

7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
8. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

Supporting Actress

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (16.77)
2. (2.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (12.05)
3. (3.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (11.55)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (9.33)
-. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (9.33)

6. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (8.83)

7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Steinfeld is coming closer and closer

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (2.) Inception (14.85)
2. (3.) The Kids Are All Right (14.30)
3. (1.) The King's Speech (12.35)
4. (4.) Black Swan (9.02)
5. (-.) The Fighter (6.45)

6. (-.) Please Give (4.00)
7. (5.) Buried (3.00)
8. (6.) Four Lions (2.61)
9. (7.) I Am Love (2.41)
10. (8.) Biutiful (2.26)

This is the first 'locked category'. At the end of this experiment, these will be the five predicted nominees. Whatever happens.

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (32.37)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (10.84)
3. (5.) True Grit (8.32)
4. (4.) Toy Story 3 (6.66)
5. (8.) The Town (6.51)

6. (3.) Winter's Bone (5.67)

7. (-.) I Love You Philip Morris (4.00)
8. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2.26)
9. (7.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2.11)
10. (9.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (34.19)
2. Up in the Air (30.94)
3. Inglorious Bastards (19.20)
4. Precious (15.64)
5. Nine (9.17)
6. District 9 (8.46)
7. An Education (4.89)
8. Invictus (4.20)
9. Avatar (2.86)
10. Star Trek (2.46)
--. Up (2.46)

12. A Serious Man (1.67)
13. 500 Days of Summer (1.32)
14. Julie & Julia (1.24)
15. The White Ribbon (0.94)

Note
The Producers Guild Nominations are in! And it's an exciting list full of movies I really love (The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Up, Star Trek, District 9). Maybe the Academy's move to ten best picture nominees isn't so bad after all...

But back to the Formula. What's Nine still doing there? If, and only IF Nine doesn't win any Golden Globe, it's points will be divided by 2.5 and it will leave the top 10 (see the Formula's most important rule).

Unfortunately, I still believe Nine is the frontrunner for the Best Picture - Comedy or Musical Golden Globe. So Nine is probably here to stay. (Unless the unlikely event that the Formula is wrong, but we don't have such absurd thoughts)

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (27.13)
2. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (19.04)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds (14.05)
4. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (9.66)
5. Lee Daniels, Precious (8.02)

6. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)
7. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
8. Lone Scherfig, An Education (2.43)
9. James Cameron, Avatar (2.04)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.94)

Note
After the DGA nominations are announced, James Cameron will be in the top 5. Bigelow, Reitman & Tarantino will be his fellow nominees. I always felt sure that Lee Daniels would fill the fifth spot, but now I feel Blomkamp could be a spoiler... Mmmmm... I like spoilers...