BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (49.43!)
2. (6.) Inception (22.12)
3. (2.) The King's Speech (21.98)
4. (3.) Black Swan (21.96)
5. (4.) The Fighter (20.03)

6. (5.) The Kids Are All Right (8.59)
7. (8.) True Grit (6.18)
8. (9.) 127 Hours (5.50)
9. (10.) The Town (5.08)
10. (7.) Winter's Bone (4.73)

11. (11.) Toy Story 3 (4.23)
12. (12.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
13. (13.) Get Low (0.52)

New events since previous edition:
Online Film Critics Winners
Producers Guild Nominations
Writers Guild Nominations

Contenders in italic are locks.
The Kids Are All Right lost some points since its PGA nomination. The film is now an Over-estimated comedy

See the CALCULATIONS (in excell).

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (40.07)
2. (6.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (15.84)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (14.39)
4. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (13.48)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (9.66)

6. (4.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (4.73)
7. (7.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (3.51)
8. (12.) Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (2.31)
9. (13.) Ben Affleck, The Town (2.01)
10. (9.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (22.49)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (12.55)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (11.05)
4. (4.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (8.33)
5. (5.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (6.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5.33)

7. (7.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)
8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

Best Actress

1. (1.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (17.38)
2. (2.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (14.27)
3. (3.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (13.41)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (10.44)
5. (5.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)

6. (6.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
7. (7.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (3.97)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)

9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.89)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)

The race for that fifth spot is still wide open...

Supporting Actor

1. (1.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (17.27)
2. (2.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (15.27)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
-. (3.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (9.33)
5. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (7.83)

6. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (7.44)

7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
8. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

Supporting Actress

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (16.77)
2. (2.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (12.05)
3. (3.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (11.55)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (9.33)
-. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (9.33)

6. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (8.83)

7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Steinfeld is coming closer and closer

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (2.) Inception (14.85)
2. (3.) The Kids Are All Right (14.30)
3. (1.) The King's Speech (12.35)
4. (4.) Black Swan (9.02)
5. (-.) The Fighter (6.45)

6. (-.) Please Give (4.00)
7. (5.) Buried (3.00)
8. (6.) Four Lions (2.61)
9. (7.) I Am Love (2.41)
10. (8.) Biutiful (2.26)

This is the first 'locked category'. At the end of this experiment, these will be the five predicted nominees. Whatever happens.

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (32.37)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (10.84)
3. (5.) True Grit (8.32)
4. (4.) Toy Story 3 (6.66)
5. (8.) The Town (6.51)

6. (3.) Winter's Bone (5.67)

7. (-.) I Love You Philip Morris (4.00)
8. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2.26)
9. (7.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2.11)
10. (9.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (43.97)
2. Up in the Air (39.78)
3. Inglorious Bastards (23.36)
4. Precious (21.58)
5. Avatar (18.74)

6. District 9 (10.56)
7. Star Trek (5.02)
8. An Education (4.57)
9. Invictus (4.20)
10. Nine (3.46)

11. Julie & Julia (3.31)
12. A Serious Man (3.24)
13. Up (3.02)

Note
I don't feel safe about these predictions at all! There is a certain rule within the Formula that states:

If a film is nominated for both the WGA and the PGA, then the producers receive 1 point, and the directors 2 points.

But that is a rule from a time when the Producers Guild had five, not ten nominations. If the PGA would have only five nominees, would Precious have been among them? Or Star Trek? Or District 9?

It's also a rule from a time when all the important screenplay contenders were eligible for the Writers Guild. If District 9, An Education, Fantastic Mr. Fox and In the Loop were eligible, would Precious have been a WGA nominee? Or Star Trek?

So I have no idea how accurate these predictions are anymore... Aaaarrgh! (might join a self-help support group soon!)

Nine Note: Since Nine failed to get a Writers Guild Nomination, it's points got divided by 2.5 again. Only if the film wins a Golden Globe, it will jump back again in the top 10. (see The Formula's Most Important Rule).

Next up: The winners from the Broadcast Film Critics (1/15) and the Golden Globes (1/17). Next update 1/18. The end is near!

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (38.19)
2. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (29.38)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (20.65)
4. James Cameron, Avatar (17.99)
5. Lee Daniels, Precious (15.79)

6. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (11.42)
7. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
8. J.J. Abrams, Star Trek (3.11)
9. Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man (2.43)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (2.37)

Note
Many 'insiders' note that Lee Daniels is the DGA nominee that could be left out when the Oscar Nominations are announced. I think so too. But according to the Formula, the fifth spot is a showdown between Tarantino's Basterds and the Aliens from District 9.

If the Tarantino film fails to win best picture, best director or best screenplay at the Golden Globes next sunday, he's out and District 9 will take his place... Without an important Golden Globe, The Formula will consider Inglourious Basterds as a Too Early Front Runner.

Bad News Note
The last film The Formula considered a Too Early Front Runner, was Crash, a film that eventually won the best picture Oscar...

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (18.86)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (15.77)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (10.44)

6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
7. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
No changes in the acting categories...

Best Actress

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (17.88)
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (14.82)
3. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (9.94)
4. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)
5. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (6.11)

6. Tilda Swinton, Julia (5.22)
7. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)
8. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
9. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.50)
10. Sandra Bullock, The Proposal (1.23)

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (27.32)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (14.66)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)

6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
7. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
10. Paul Schneider, Bright Star (0.45)

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (25.71)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (15.77)
3. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (10.44)
4. Penelope Cruz, Nine (9.33)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)

6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
I discovered Penelope Cruz received two points too many back in december... It doesn't really matter, she stays a lock (according to the Formula)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (23.17)
2. A Serious Man (14.15)
3. Inglorious Bastards (13.94)
4. 500 Days of Summer (10.99)
5. Up (9.88)

6. Avatar (9.51)
7. The Hangover (4.35)
8. The White Ribbon (2.76)
9. Sin Nombre (2.41)
10. It's Complicated (2.35)

Note
Two spots left for three films: 500 Days of Summer, Up and Avatar. Avatar's screenplay can receive two points if Avatar wins best picture at the globes. The Bafta nominations will determine the rest...

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (31.21)
2. Precious (12.17)
3. District 9 (8.49)
4. In the Loop (7.33)
5. Star Trek (6.81)

6. An Education (5.97)
7. Julie & Julia (5.46)
8. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.86)
9. Crazy Heart (4.00)
10. Invictus (3.05)

Note
BAFTA will decide if the fifth spot goes to Star Trek or An Education...