BEST PICTURE

The Experiment has begun!!!

Thanks to the Satellite Nominations and winners from the European Film Awards and the National Board of Review we have our first standings. So with no further ado... Let's take a look!

1. The Social Network (2.91)
2. The Ghost Writer (1.35)
3. Inception (0.73)
-. The King's Speech (0.73)
-. The Town (0.73)
-. Winter's Bone (0.73)

7. 127 Hours (0.40)
-. Animal Kingdom (0.40)
-. Blue Valentine (0.40)
-. Get Low (0.40)
-. The Kids Are All Right (0.40)

How to read this
First things first, for everyone new here, the experiment is no buzz-o-meter. It's more like an award-meter: if you win awards you receive points. Some critics say that this is the experiment's biggest weakness, but if you look at its prediction power, I'd call it its strength!

The Social Network received points because it won the NBR and received a Satellite nomination, The Ghost Writer won the EFA, while Inception, The King's Speech, The Town and Winter's Bone are the only films in the NBR Top 10 to be nominated for the Best Picture Satellite.

You can download the calculations (in excell) HERE!

Exactly one year ago, the future Oscar Winner was all ready on this list! (But so was Bright Star)

(Next sunday the Award Season starts for real, when in just a couple of days the real big guns like the Los Angeles Film Critics, the New York Film Critics and the Golden Globes all hand out awards, runners-up or nominations.)

Best Director

1. David Fincher, The Social Network (3.19)
2. Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

3. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (0.40)
-. David Michod, Animal Kingdom (0.40)
-. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (0.40)
-. Christopher Nolan, Inception (0.40)
-. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (0.40)
-. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (0.40)
-. Ben Affleck, The Town (0.40)
-. Debra Granik, The Winter's Bone (0.40)

How to read this
This doesn't mean that Fincher and Polanski are surefire nominees just yet. In the Best Picture and Best Director race, you need at least a nomination from the Directors Guild, the Producers Guild or a Screen Actors Ensemble Award!

Best Actor

1. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (4.11)
2. Ewan McGregor, The Ghost Writer (1.50)

3. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
-. Robert Duvall, Get Low (1.00)
-. Colin Firth, The King's Speech (1.00)
-. James Franco, 127 Hours (1.00)
-. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (1.00)

Best Actress

1. Lesley Manville, Another Year (3.00)
2. Sylvie Testud, Lourdes (1.50)

3. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (1.00)
-. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (1.00)
-. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (1.00)
-. Helen Mirren, The Tempest (1.00)
-. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (1.00)
-. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (1.00)
-. Noomi Rapace, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Tilda Swinton, I Am Love (1.00)
-. Naomi Watts, Fair Game (1.00)
-. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (1.00)

How to read this
I have some bad news for all actors and actresses who never received an Oscar nomination before. For them to get an Oscar nomination in the Best Actor or Best Actress category, they need a nomination from the Golden Globe and/or the Screen Actors Guild (a personal nomination, an ensemble nomination is not enough!).

If they fail to get that, their points will be divided by 3.

Pop Quiz: Can you name an actor or actress who scored a first Oscar nomination (in the leading categories) without receiving a Golden Globe nomination, or a Screen Actors Guild nomination first?

Supporting Actor

1. Christian Bale, The Fighter (4.11)

2. Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (1.00)
-. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (1.00)
-. Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (1.00)
-. Sean Penn, Fair Game (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Town (1.00)
-. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (1.00)

Supporting Actress

1. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (4.11)

2. Amy Adams, The Fighter (1.00)
-. Marion Cotillard, Inception (1.00)
-. Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (1.00)
-. Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (1.00)
-. Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (1.00)

How to read this
In the supporting categories the influences of the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild are even more powerfull. It doens't matter how many Oscar nominations you received in the past, if you don't have a nomination from the Globes or SAG, you're points will be divided by 3. (Here an ensemble nomination can be enough. Remember Alan Alda?)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. Buried (3.00)
2. Toy Story 3 (1.70)
3. Inception (1.35)
-. The King's Speech (1.35)
5. Of Gods and Men (1.15)

6. Biutiful (1.00)
-. The Eclipse (1.00)
-. Get Low (1.00)
-. The Kids Are All Right (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. The Social Network (6.57)
2. The Ghost Writer (1.35)
-. The Town (1.35)
-. Winter's Bone (1.35)

5. 127 Hours (1.00)
-. Fair Game (1.00)
-. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

How to read this
It looks like we have a first lock for an Oscar nomination! Since 5 points is usually enough to end up in the final top 5 Screenplays, The Social Network's screenplay is an almost certain Oscar nominee. But we all ready knew that, didn"t we...

BEST PICTURE

1. An Education (0.40)
-. Bright Star (0.40)
-. Nine (0.40)
-. Precious (0.40)
-. The Hurt Locker (0.40)
-. The Messenger (0.40)
-. The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.40)

What is this?
This is the start of Sijmen's Oscar Experiment 2009-2010! I found myself a secret weapon to predict the Oscar nominees: a mathematical and statistical Formula, based on the relation between the Pre-Oscar Awards and the Oscarnominees in the last 13 years. And now the first award is in: the nominations from the Satellite Awards.

How to read this
What does this all mean at this point? Nothing. Anything can happen!

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, Bright Star (0.40)
-. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (0.40)
-. Lee Daniels, Precious (0.40)
-. Lone Scherfig, An Education (0.40)
-. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (0.40)
-. Rob Marshall, Nine (0.40)

How to read this
As in the best picture category: this means nothing. Yet.

Best Actor

1. Colin Firth, A Single Man (1.00)
-. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.00)
-. Hugh Dancy, Adam (1.00)
-. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Lofcker (1.00)
-. Johnny Depp, Public Enemies (1.00)
-. Michael Sheen, The Damned United (1.00)

How to read this
Leading actors who were Oscar nominated in the past, can end up in the final Top 10 with only 1 point. This happend two years ago with Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah). He received only 1 point (thanks to a nomination from the Satellites), and ended up being Oscar nominated. That's great news for Daniel Day-Lewis, Jeff Bridges and Johnny Depp.

Daniel Day-Lewis has even more reasons to party. As a former Oscar Winner he needs only one more point to profit from the Mery Streep Rule. If that happens, Day-Lewis will certainly end up in the final Top 10, even the final Top 5 is possible.

Best Actress

1. Abbie Cornish, Bright Star (1.00)
-. Carey Mulligan, An Education (1.00)
-. Catalina Saavedra, The Maid (1.00)
-. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (1.00)
-. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.00)
-. Penelope Cruz, Broken Embraces (1.00)
-. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)

How to read this
Very good news for previous Oscar winners Marion Cotillard and Penelope Cruz (see the Meryl Sreep Rule)

Previous nominated Shohreh Aghdashloo will probably end up in the final Top 10 now.

PS: From now on, Marion Cotillard's Nine performance will only receive points if it's nominated in the leading category (see the Kate Winslet Rule)

Supporting Actor

1. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
-. Christopher Waltz, Inglourious Basterds (1.00)
-. James McAvoy, The Last Station (1.00)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (1.00)
-. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (1.00)

How to read this:
In the supporting categories, an actor can end up in the final Top 10, if he's nominated for the Best Ensemble Award from the Screen Actors Guild (as happend last year with Kevin Bacon (Frost/Nixon) and James Franco (Milk)).

But which of these films will be nominated for the SAG Best Ensemble Award? Inglorious Basterds maybe? It's hard to predict...

Supporting Actress

1. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (1.00)
-. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (1.00)
-. Mo'nique, Precious (1.00)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)
-. Penelope Cruz, Nine (1.00)

How to read this
Penelope Cruz is the only Oscar Winner in this lineup, so she has the biggest chance to end up in the final Top 5 (see the Meryl Streep Rule).

I think Nine, Precious and Up in the Air are likely to get receive a SAG Best Ensemble nomination. So, besides Penelope, this has been a good day for Mo'nique and Anna Kendrick.

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. 500 Days of Summer (1.00)
-. A Serious Man (1.00)
-. Bright Star (1.00)
-. The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Up (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. An Education (1.00)
-. District 9 (1.00)
-. Julie & Julia (1.00)
-. Precious (1.00)
-. Up in the Air (1.00)

How to read this
Anything can still happen...