BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (41.86!)
2. (2.) The King's Speech (17.66)
3. (3.) Black Swan (15.71)
4. (4.) The Fighter (13.78)
5. (5.) The Kids Are All Right (12.27)

6. (6.) Inception (6.29)
7. (7.) Winter's Bone (5.05)
8. (-.) True Grit (2.93)
9. (8.) 127 Hours (2.25)
10. (10.) The Town (1.83)

11. (--.) Toy Story 3 (1.72)
12. (11.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
13. (12.) Get Low (0.84)

New events since previous edition:
Chicago Film Critics Winners
Online Film Critics Nominations
Academy's List of Eligible films
(Carlos, Mother, Of Gods and Men, A Prophet, Lourdes are ineligible)

Contenders in italic are locks.
Here are the CALCULATIONS (in excell)

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (35.99)
2. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (12.94)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (11.72)
4. (4.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (9.15)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (7.00)

6. (6.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (4.11)
7. (8.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (2.04)
8. (9.) Debra Granik, Winter's Bone (1.35)
9. (10.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
10. (11.) Luca Guadagnino, I Am Love (0.75)

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (21.99)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (12.55)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (11.05)
4. (4.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (8.33)
5. (4.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (6.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5.33)

7. (7.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)
8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

Best Actress

1. (1.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (16.88)
2. (3.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (14.27)
3. (2.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (13.41)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (10.44)
5. (5.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)

6. (6.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
7. (7.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (3.97)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)

9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.89)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)

The race for that fifth spot is still wide open...

Supporting Actor

1. (1.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (16.77)
2. (2.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (15.27)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
-. (4.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (9.33)
5. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (7.83)

6. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (7.44)

7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
8. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

It's Garfield vs Hawkes in a very close race...

Supporting Actress

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (16.77)
2. (2.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (12.05)
3. (3.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (11.55)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (9.33)
-. (5.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (9.33)

6. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (8.33)

7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Carter vs Kunis vs Steinfeld. Who will be left out?

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (1.) The King's Speech (11.65)
2. (3.) Inception (9.89)
3. (2.) The Kids Are All Right (9.84)
4. (4.) Black Swan (4.56)
5. (5.) Buried (3.00)

6. (7.) Four Lions (2.61)
7. (7.) I Am Love (2.41)
8. (9.) Biutiful (2.26)
9. (10.) Of Gods and Men (1.15)
-. (10.) Mother (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (27.41)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (6.38)
3. (4.) Winter's Bone (5.67)
4. (3.) Toy Story 3 (5.26)
5. (5.) True Grit (3.86)

6. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2.26)
7. (9.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2.11)
8. (7.) The Town (2.05)
9. (8.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
10. (9.) Fair Game (1.00)
--. (9.) Rabbit Hole (1.00)

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (26.20)
2. Inglorious Bastards (13.72)
3. Precious (11.18)
4. Up in the Air (10.54)
5. Nine (9.17)

6. An Education (2.83)
7. Invictus (2.14)
8. 500 Days of Summer (1.32)
9. Julie & Julia (1.24)
10. The White Ribbon (0.94)

11. A Serious Man (0.91)
12. It's Complicated (0.89)
13. The Last Station (0.86)

Note
No big awards, no big changes, but I wanted to end the year with an update. The Academy published the list of eligible films. Since Summer Hours, Seraphine and A Prophet are not on that list, I deleted them from the Formula.

The awards handed out since the last update were the Satellite Awards, and the film critics from Chicago and Florida.

Enjoy!

And a happy new year!

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (22.03)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (11.62)
3. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (7.51)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (6.68)
5. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)

6. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.25)
7. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.94)
8. Lone Scherfig, An Education (1.70)
9. Wes Anderson, Fantastic Mr. Fox (1.58)
10. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (1.31)

Note
There are no locks yet, but Bigelow, Tarantino and Reitman are very strong contenders. I expect Lee Daniels and James Cameron to join them...

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (17.75)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (13.55)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (7.22)

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
7. Matt Damon, The Informant (2.34)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
The bold ones are locks! These are the predicted best actor nominations, and it's mathematically impossible for any actor to crack into the top 5.

Best Actress

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (16.77)
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (13.71)
3. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (8.83)
4. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)
5. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (6.11)

6. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)
7. Tilda Swinton, Julia (2.00)
8. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
9. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.50)
10. Sandra Bullock, The Proposal (1.23)

Note
The bold ones are locks. Only Shohreh Aghdashloo and The Proposal's Sandra Bullock are mathematically out...

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (24.10)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (13.55)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)

6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.02)
-. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
9. James McAvoy, The Last Station (0.30)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (0.30)

Note
The bold ones are locks. That's our second fixed category.

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (22.49)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (13.55)
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (11.44)
4. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (9.33)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (5.22)

6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (4.00)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.45)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
The bold ones are locks. If I would predict the nominees myself, I would pick Samantha Morton for the fifth spot. But history learned that the Formula is better at this than me, so...

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (12.44) - LOCK! -
2. Inglorious Bastards (7.17)
3. A Serious Man (6.97)
4. 500 Days of Summer (5.77)
5. Up (5.61)

6. Sin Nombre (2.41)
7. It's Complicated (2.35)
8. The White Ribbon (1.50)
9. Broken Embraces (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)
-. The Maid (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (20.83) - LOCK! -
2. In the Loop (6.22)
3. District 9 (4.92)
4. An Education (3.51)
5. Fantastic Mr. Fox (3.25)
-. Precious (3.25)

7. Where the Wild Things Are (1.70)
8. Julie & Julia (1.35)
9. The Informant! (1.00)