1. Mo'nique, Precious (30.93)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (16.88)
3. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (11.55)
4. Penelope Cruz, Nine (9.33)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)
6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)
Mo'nique, Kendrick and Farmiga are locks. There are three candidates for the remaining two spots: Moore, Kruger and Morton (no matter what the Formula says, Cruz is completely out).
So another tragic 3 out of 5 is possible... But I think Moore and Morton are going to make it, so the Formula has a 4 out of 5.