Monday, January 24, 2011

BEST PICTURE

New events: Critics Choice Winners, Golden Globe Winners, Nominations from BAFTA, American Cinema Editors and Costume Designers Guild.

FINAL RANKING
1. (1.) The Social Network (67.19!)
2. (4.) The King's Speech (31.74)
3. (3.) Black Swan (31.34)
4. (2.) Inception (30.48)
5. (5.) The Fighter (26.16)

6. (6.) The Kids Are All Right (10.67)
7. (7.) True Grit (8.69)
8. (8.) 127 Hours (5.94)
9. (9.) The Town (5.52)
10. (10.) Winter's Bone (4.73)


11. (11.) Toy Story 3 (4.67)
12. (14.) Alice in Wonderland (1.63)
13. (12.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

Toy Story 3 will be nominated for sure. So the Formula made at least one mistake this year. Tomorow we'll know what the other mistakes are, and if the Formula did better than most Oscar Pundits...

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (60.54)!
2. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (24.86)
3. (4.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (24.64)
4. (2.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (24.51)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (16.77)


6. (6.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (5.31)
7. (7.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (4.75)
8. (8.) Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (3.20)
9. (9.) Ben Affleck, The Town (2.31)
10. (10.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

This is what everybody else is predicting, and I really hope this will come true. Fincher, Nolan and Aronofsky are three of the best directors of the last ten years. David O. Russel had a bad decade, but he could very well be one of the best directors of the next ten years. They all deserved this recognition at the turn of the millenium (for Fight Club, Memento, Requiem for a Dream and Three Kings respectively). Fingers crossed!

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (28.82)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (15.27)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (12.16)
4. (4.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (9.44)
5. (5.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)


6. (6.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5.33)
7. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (5.22)
8. (7.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)
9. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
10. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
--. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
--. (12.) Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version (1.00)

Weirdly enough, this is what everybody else is predicting. Weird, because if I would predict without a Formula, I would go for Bardem instaed of Duvall. On the other hand, I use this Formula because without it, I'm a worthless Oscar predictor.

One side note. If you don't look at the performances, but just at the actors and their body of work up to now, the top 7 should be opside down: Bardem, Gosling and Duvall should be the locks, and Firth, Eisenberg and Franco should be the 'possibles'. Just a thought I had during my morning shower.

Best Actress

1. (1.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (22.60)
2. (2.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (15.88)
3. (3.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (14.27)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (10.44)
5. (5.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (6.19)


6. (6.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)
7. (7.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)
9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.99)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)

Not too many people are predicting Julianne Moore (Michelle Williams seems to be the general consensus). In a perfect world Moore and Williams would both be nominated.

Supporting Actor

1. (1.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (23.60)
2. (2.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (17.99)
3. (3.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (10.44)
4. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
5. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (8.55)


6. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (7.83)
7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
8. (-.) Armie Hammer, The Social Network (1.00)
9. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)
-. (-.) Pete Postlethwaite, The Town (0.30)

This seems the most logic prediction. Hurray for two heroes of mine finally getting some Oscar recognition: Bale and Ruffalo!

Supporting Actress

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (20.88)
2. (2.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (13.77)
3. (3.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (12.05)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (10.44)
5. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (10.05)


6. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (9.33)
7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (1.17)
8. (-.) Barbara Hershey, Black Swan (1.00)
9. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (-.) Ann Guilbert, Please Give (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (-.) Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Everybody else seems to predict Mila Kunis instead of Jacki Weaver, but even without this Formula, I would still go for Weaver...

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (2.) The King's Speech (22.49)
2. (1.) Inception (20.77)
3. (3.) The Kids Are All Right (17.52)
4. (4.) Black Swan (14.94)
5. (5.) The Fighter (12.02)


6. (6.) Please Give (5.11)
7. (7.) Buried (3.00)
8. (8.) Four Lions (2.61)
9. (9.) I Am Love (2.41)
10. (10.) Biutiful (2.26)

This prediction seems solid.

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (48.58)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (14.06)
3. (3.) True Grit (11.89)
4. (4.) Toy Story 3 (10.58)
5. (5.) The Town (8.62)


6. (6.) Winter's Bone (5.67)
7. (8.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (5.63)
8. (7.) I Love You Philip Morris (5.11)
9. (9.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2.11)
10. (10.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

I would be very surprised if Winter's Bone failed to score a nomination in this category. That would be the Formula's second certain mistake.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

We'll do this later

The final update is coming later, somewhere this weekend.

But you can read The Experiment's FINAL Oscar Prediction HERE (without the rankings and the points for now, those don't really matter anymore)

Monday, January 17, 2011

Post Globes Update

This weekend, we had the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards and the nominations from the American Cinema Editors. But, due to a lack of change, I will not update these rankings until tomorrow's BAFTA Nominations.

The most important change of this weekend, happened in the best supporting actress category, where Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) climbed into the top 5 (finally!). Thanks to her Young Actress-win at the Critics Choice Awards, she climbs from number 6 to number 4.

Tomorrow we'll know The Formula's FINAL RESULTS! The following actors need a nomination from BAFTA, or they are out:
* Michelle Williams
* Andrew Garfield
* Mila Kunis
* And last but not least, Toy Story 3 needs a BAFTA nomination for best picture.

You can read the updated CALCULATIONS in excel.

Monday, January 10, 2011

BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (55.39!)
2. (2.) Inception (26.23)
3. (4.) Black Swan (26.07)
4. (3.) The King's Speech (25.65)
5. (5.) The Fighter (23.26)

6. (6.) The Kids Are All Right (8.59)
7. (7.) True Grit (7.50)
8. (8.) 127 Hours (5.94)
9. (9.) The Town (5.52)

10. (10.) Winter's Bone (4.73)

11. (11.) Toy Story 3 (4.23)
12. (12.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
13. (13.) Get Low (0.96)

New events since previous edition:
Directors Guild Nominations
American Society of Cinematographers Nominations
Art Directors Guild Nominations
Cinema Audio Society Nominations
National Society of Film Critics (winners and first runners-up)
Entertainment Weekly's For Your Considerations

Contenders in italic are locks.

In the best picture race it's Toy Story 3 versus Winter's Bone. Both films would probably have done better if they were eligible for the WGA... *sigh* Yes, the Formula has its flaws...

See the CALCULATIONS (in excell).

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (47.73)
2. (2.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (20.84)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (19.39)
4. (4.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (18.25)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (14.22)


6. (6.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (4.73)
7. (7.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (3.73)
8. (12.) Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (2.98)
9. (13.) Ben Affleck, The Town (2.31)
10. (9.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

This top 5 is final. Whatever happens, nobody else can enter it.

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (23.60)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (14.16)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (11.05)
4. (4.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (8.33)
5. (5.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)


6. (6.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5.33)
7. (7.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)
8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

This top 5 is final. Whatever happens, nobody else can enter it.

Best Actress

1. (1.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (17.38)
2. (3.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (14.52)
3. (2.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (14.27)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (10.44)

5. (7.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (5.08)

6. (5.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)

7. (6.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)
9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.89)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)

Supporting Actor

1. (1.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (18.38)
2. (2.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (16.88)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
-. (3.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (9.33)

5. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (7.83)

6. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (7.44)

7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
8. (-.) Armie Hammer, The Social Network (1.00)
9. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

Supporting Actress

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (16.77)
2. (3.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (12.66)
3. (2.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (12.05)

4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (9.33)
-. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (9.33)

6. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (8.83)

7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (1.17)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (-.) Ann Guilbert, Please Give (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Steinfeld has one last chance: she must min something at the British Choice Awards, either best supporting actress or best new actress. Otherwise, she's out.

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (1.) Inception (19.31)
2. (3.) The King's Speech (17.92)
3. (2.) The Kids Are All Right (16.41)
4. (4.) Black Swan (13.48)
5. (5.) The Fighter (10.91)


6. (6.) Please Give (4.00)
7. (7.) Buried (3.00)
8. (8.) Four Lions (2.61)
9. (9.) I Am Love (2.41)
10. (10.) Biutiful (2.26)

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (38.79)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (12.95)
3. (3.) True Grit (10.43)
4. (4.) Toy Story 3 (8.77)
5. (5.) The Town (8.62)


6. (6.) Winter's Bone (5.67)
7. (7.) I Love You Philip Morris (4.00)
8. (8.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2.26)
9. (9.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2.11)
10. (10.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

These two top 5's are final.

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (49.43!)
2. (6.) Inception (22.12)
3. (2.) The King's Speech (21.98)
4. (3.) Black Swan (21.96)
5. (4.) The Fighter (20.03)

6. (5.) The Kids Are All Right (8.59)

7. (8.) True Grit (6.18)
8. (9.) 127 Hours (5.50)
9. (10.) The Town (5.08)
10. (7.) Winter's Bone (4.73)

11. (11.) Toy Story 3 (4.23)
12. (12.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
13. (13.) Get Low (0.52)

New events since previous edition:
Online Film Critics Winners
Producers Guild Nominations
Writers Guild Nominations

Contenders in italic are locks.
The Kids Are All Right lost some points since its PGA nomination. The film is now an Over-estimated comedy

See the CALCULATIONS (in excell).

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (40.07)
2. (6.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (15.84)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (14.39)
4. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (13.48)

5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (9.66)

6. (4.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (4.73)
7. (7.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (3.51)
8. (12.) Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (2.31)
9. (13.) Ben Affleck, The Town (2.01)
10. (9.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (22.49)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (12.55)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (11.05)
4. (4.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (8.33)

5. (5.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (6.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5.33)

7. (7.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)
8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

Best Actress

1. (1.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (17.38)
2. (2.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (14.27)
3. (3.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (13.41)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (10.44)

5. (5.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)

6. (6.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
7. (7.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (3.97)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)

9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.89)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)

The race for that fifth spot is still wide open...

Supporting Actor

1. (1.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (17.27)
2. (2.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (15.27)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
-. (3.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (9.33)

5. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (7.83)

6. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (7.44)

7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
8. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

Supporting Actress

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (16.77)
2. (2.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (12.05)
3. (3.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (11.55)

4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (9.33)
-. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (9.33)

6. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (8.83)

7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Steinfeld is coming closer and closer

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (2.) Inception (14.85)
2. (3.) The Kids Are All Right (14.30)
3. (1.) The King's Speech (12.35)
4. (4.) Black Swan (9.02)
5. (-.) The Fighter (6.45)


6. (-.) Please Give (4.00)
7. (5.) Buried (3.00)
8. (6.) Four Lions (2.61)
9. (7.) I Am Love (2.41)
10. (8.) Biutiful (2.26)

This is the first 'locked category'. At the end of this experiment, these will be the five predicted nominees. Whatever happens.

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (32.37)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (10.84)
3. (5.) True Grit (8.32)

4. (4.) Toy Story 3 (6.66)
5. (8.) The Town (6.51)

6. (3.) Winter's Bone (5.67)

7. (-.) I Love You Philip Morris (4.00)
8. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2.26)
9. (7.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2.11)
10. (9.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)