Thursday, December 30, 2010

BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (41.86!)
2. (2.) The King's Speech (17.66)
3. (3.) Black Swan (15.71)
4. (4.) The Fighter (13.78)
5. (5.) The Kids Are All Right (12.27)

6. (6.) Inception (6.29)

7. (7.) Winter's Bone (5.05)
8. (-.) True Grit (2.93)
9. (8.) 127 Hours (2.25)
10. (10.) The Town (1.83)

11. (--.) Toy Story 3 (1.72)
12. (11.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
13. (12.) Get Low (0.84)

New events since previous edition:
Chicago Film Critics Winners
Online Film Critics Nominations
Academy's List of Eligible films
(Carlos, Mother, Of Gods and Men, A Prophet, Lourdes are ineligible)

Contenders in italic are locks.
Here are the CALCULATIONS (in excell)

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (35.99)
2. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (12.94)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (11.72)

4. (4.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (9.15)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (7.00)

6. (6.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (4.11)
7. (8.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (2.04)
8. (9.) Debra Granik, Winter's Bone (1.35)
9. (10.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
10. (11.) Luca Guadagnino, I Am Love (0.75)

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (21.99)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (12.55)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (11.05)
4. (4.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (8.33)

5. (4.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (6.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5.33)

7. (7.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)
8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Best Actress

1. (1.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (16.88)
2. (3.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (14.27)
3. (2.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (13.41)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (10.44)

5. (5.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)

6. (6.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
7. (7.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (3.97)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)

9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.89)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)

The race for that fifth spot is still wide open...

Supporting Actor

1. (1.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (16.77)
2. (2.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (15.27)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
-. (4.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (9.33)

5. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (7.83)

6. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (7.44)

7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
8. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

It's Garfield vs Hawkes in a very close race...

Supporting Actress

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (16.77)
2. (2.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (12.05)
3. (3.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (11.55)

4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (9.33)
-. (5.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (9.33)

6. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (8.33)

7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Carter vs Kunis vs Steinfeld. Who will be left out?

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (1.) The King's Speech (11.65)
2. (3.) Inception (9.89)
3. (2.) The Kids Are All Right (9.84)

4. (4.) Black Swan (4.56)
5. (5.) Buried (3.00)

6. (7.) Four Lions (2.61)
7. (7.) I Am Love (2.41)
8. (9.) Biutiful (2.26)
9. (10.) Of Gods and Men (1.15)
-. (10.) Mother (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (27.41)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (6.38)
3. (4.) Winter's Bone (5.67)
4. (3.) Toy Story 3 (5.26)
5. (5.) True Grit (3.86)

6. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2.26)
7. (9.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2.11)
8. (7.) The Town (2.05)
9. (8.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
10. (9.) Fair Game (1.00)
--. (9.) Rabbit Hole (1.00)

Monday, December 20, 2010

BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (39.19!)
2. (2.) The King's Speech (17.66)
3. (4.) Black Swan (14.36)
4. (3.) The Fighter (13.78)
5. (5.) The Kids Are All Right (12.27)

6. (6.) Inception (5.20)

7. (7.) Winter's Bone (4.30)
8. (9.) 127 Hours (2.25)
9. (8.) Carlos (2.10)
10. (10.) The Town (1.83)

11. (11.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
12. (12.) Get Low (0.84)
13. (13.) Red (0.80)

Notes
New awards since previous edition:
* Chicago Film Critics Nominations
* Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Winners
* Satellite Awards
* Florida Film Critics Awards

The italic contenders are locks (which means: by the end of the experiment the formula will predict them as nominees).

Do it yourself
I love doing the calculations (it makes me feel like I'm working at Price Waterhouse, counting ballots), but sometimes I'm too lazy to put them up here. That's why I invite you to do this experiment yourself. Don't worry, it's easy!

Here are the Calculations
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here is what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association: the best picture winner receives 1.5 points instead of his previous Chicago nomination point (which was 1 point). The best screenplay winners receive 0.8 points extra in the best picture category. The winning Foreign Language Film receives 0.8 points.

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point extra in column B, C and D.

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (33.47)
2. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (12.94)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (10.61)

4. (4.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (9.15)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (7.00)

6. (7.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (3.16)
7. (6.) Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
8. (8.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (1.53)
9. (10.) Debra Granik, Winter's Bone (1.35)
10. (9.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

Do it yourself
Here are the Calculations
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here is what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association: the best director winner receives 1.5 points instead of his previous Chicago nomination point (which was 1 point). The directors of the best screenplay winners receive 0.8 points extra. The director of the winning Foreign Language Film receives 0.8 points.

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point.

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (20.38)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (11.44)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (9.94)

4. (6.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (7.22)
5. (3.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (7.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (4.22)
7. (5.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)

8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

Note
In the acting categories, there are only three remaining points left. So mathematically Gosling and Wahlberg still have a shot to beat Duvall and Bridges, although their chances are quiet slim...
(That 'three points left rule' also aplies to the other acting categories, so you can calculate yourself who still has a chance, and who's out)

Best Actress

1. (2.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (15.27)
2. (1.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (12.30)
3. (2.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (12.05)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (9.33)

5. (7.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)

6. (5.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
7. (6.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (3.97)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)

9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.47)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)

Supporting Actor

1. (2.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (15.16)
2. (1.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (14.16)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
4. (4.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (8.22)

5. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (6.72)

6. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (6.33)
7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)

8. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

Supporting Actress

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (15.66)
2. (2.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (10.94)
3. (2.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (10.44)

4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (9.33)
5. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (8.22)

6. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (6.72)

7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Do it yourself
Here are the Calculations
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here's what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association: winners receive 1.5 points instead of their previous Chicago nomination points (which was 1 point). Winners of the best promising actor and/or actress receive 1 point extra if they are also nominated in the regular best acting categories (actor/actress, leading/supporting).

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point.

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (1.) The King's Speech (10.89)
2. (2.) The Kids Are All Right (8.73)
3. (3.) Inception (7.93)

4. (-.) Black Swan (3.10)
5. (5.) Buried (3.00)

6. (7.) Four Lions (2.61)
7. (6.) Carlos (2.41)
7. (8.) I Am Love (2.41)
9. (11.) Biutiful (2.26)
10. (8.) Of Gods and Men (1.15)
--. (8.) Mother (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (25.45)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (5.27)
3. (-.) Toy Story 3 (4.91)
4. (3.) Winter's Bone (4.21)
5. (-.) True Grit (2.40)

6. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2.26)
7. (4.) The Town (2.05)
8. (5.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
9. (6.) Fair Game (1.00)
-. (-.) Rabbit Hole (1.00)
-. (6.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

Note
In the previous editions I had Toy Story 3 in the original screenplay category, which was a mistake. Sequals are always based on material previously produced or published, so they are always 'adapted screenplays'. If you see mistakes like that, always feel free to point them out to me.

Do it yourself
Here are the Calculations.
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here's what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association Awards: the winners get 1.5 points instead of their previous Chicago nomination points (which was 1 point). In the screenplay category, the winning Foreign Language Film receive 0.8 points.

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (30.85!)
2. (2.) The King's Speech (15.49)
3. (4.) The Fighter (13.45)
4. (5.) Black Swan (12.68)
5. (6.) The Kids Are All Right (11.94)

6. (2.) Inception (3.78)

7. (9.) Winter's Bone (3.22)
8. (7.) Carlos (2.10)
9. (8.) 127 Hours (1.92)
10. (11.) The Town (1.50)

11. (10.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
12. (15.) Get Low (0.84)
13. (12.) Red (0.80)

Playtime is over
The experiment is updated with the nominations from the Screen Actors Guild and the winners from the San Diego Film Critics. And by now it's getting interesting!

The contenders in italic are locks. Which means this: by the end of this experiment, the Formula will predict those contenders as nominees. The Formula can make wrong predictions, but is right most of the time...

We all ready have six locks in the best picture race, and four locks in the best actor and best actress race. But the fight for the remaining slots seem more fun and exciting than last year.

Have a look.

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (25.90)
2. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (10.92)

3. (6.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (9.50)
4. (5.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (9.15)
5. (9.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (7.00)

6. (3.) Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
7. (4.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (2.22)
8. (6.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (1.53)
9. (8.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
10. (11.) Debra Granik, Winter's Bone (0.67)

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (17.16)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (10.33)
3. (9.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)
-. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (7.22)

5. (5.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)

Still in the running:
6. (-.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (4.00)
7. (5.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (3.11)

The race is over for:
8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)

Oscar Winners who can still sneak in*:
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

* Oscar Winners have a bigger chance to sneak into the top 5, since they can profit from the Meryl Streep Rule

Best Actress

1. (3.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (11.19)
2. (1.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (10.94)
-. (4.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (10.94)
4. (1.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (9.33)

5. (-.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)

Still in the running:
6. (9.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (3.97)
7. (5.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (3.11)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)

The race is over (unfortunatley):
9. (6.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.47)
10. (11.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)

Oscarwinners who still can sneak in:
11. (9.) Helen Mirren, The Tempest (1.00) (if eligible?)
--. (9.) Tilda Swinton, I Am Love (1.00)

Supporting Actor

1. (1.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (13.05)
2. (2.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (10.33)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)

4. (5.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (7.11)
5. (-.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (5.61)

Still in the running:
6. (4.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (5.22)
7. (6.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)

Oscar winners who can still sneak in:
8. (7.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (7.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

The race is over for:
8. (7.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)

Supporting Actress

1. (2.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (11.33)
2. (3.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (9.33)
-. (1.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (9.33)

4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (8.22)
-. (5.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (8.22)

With a little bit of luck:
6. (7.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (5.61)

The race is over for:
7. (5.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (1.) The King's Speech (8.58)
2. (2.) The Kids Are All Right (7.27)

3. (3.) Inception (4.51)
4. (4.) Toy Story 3 (3.10)
5. (5.) Buried (3.00)

6. (6.) Carlos (2.41)
7. (-.) Four Lions (1,50)
8. (-.) I Am Love
-. (7.) Mother (1.15)
-. (7.) Of Gods and Men (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (19.22)
2. (2.) 127 Hours (4.92)

3. (3.) Winter's Bone (2.40)
4. (4.) The Town (1.70)
5. (5.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

6. (6.) Fair Game (1.00)
-. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. (6.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

BEST PICTURE

1. The Social Network (10.44) - Lock!
2. Inception (3.78)
-. The King's Speech (3.78)
4. The Fighter (2.94)
5. Black Swan (2.61)

6. The Kids Are All Right (2.14)
7. Carlos (2.10)
8. 127 Hours (1.48)
9. Winter's Bone (1.39)
10. The Ghost Writer (1.35)

11. The Town (1.06)
12. Red (0.80)

(The Globe nominations are out! Here's the result for the experiment)

Best Director

1. David Fincher, The Social Network (10.18) - Lock!
2. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (2.92)
3. Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
4. Christopher Nolan, Inception (2.22)
5. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (2.09)

6. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (1.31)
-. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (1.31)
8. Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
9. David O. Russell, The Fighter (1.11)
10. Bong Joon-Ho, Mother (0.67)

Best Actor

1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech (10.94) - Lock!
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (6.22)
3. James Franco, 127 Hours (3.11)
-. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (3.11)

5. Edgar Ramirez, Carlos (2.00)
-. Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (2.00)
7. Ewan McGregor, The Ghost Writer (1.50)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
-. Robert Duvall, Get Low (1.00)

(I'm surprised that Robert Duvall and Javier Bardem are doing so bad)

Best Actress

1. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (5.22)
-. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (5.22)
3. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (4.97)
4. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (4.72)
5. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (3.11)

6. Kim Hye-Ja, Mother (3.00)
-. Lesley Manville, Another Year (3.00)
8. Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)
9. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (1.86)
10. Sylvie Testud, Lourdes (1.50)

(No locks here)

Supporting Actor

1. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (8.94) - Lock!
2. Christian Bale, The Fighter (6.22) - Lock!

3. Jeremy Renner, The Town (5.22)
4. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (3.11)
5. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (3.00)

6. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
7. Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (1.00)
-. Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (1.00)
-. Sean Penn, Fair Game (1.00)

Supporting Actress

1. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (9.33) - Lock!
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (7.22) - Lock!

3. Amy Adams, The Fighter (5.22)
4. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (4.11)

5. Mila Kunis, Black Swan (2.00)
-. Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (2.00)
7. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (1.50)
8. Marion Cotillard, Inception (1.00)
-. Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (1.00)
-. Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (1.00)
-. Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (1.00)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The King's Speech (8.23) - lock!
2. The Kids Are All Right (6.92)
3. Inception (4.51)
4. Toy Story 3 (3.10)
5. Buried (3.00)

6. Carlos (2.41)
7. Mother (1.15)
-. Of Gods and Men (1.15)
9. Biutiful (1.00)
-. The Eclipse (1.00)
-. Get Low (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. The Social Network (17.26) - lock!
2. 127 Hours (4.92)
3. Winter's Bone (2.05)
4. The Town (1.70)
5. The Ghost Writer (1.35)

6. Fair Game (1.00)
-. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

Monday, December 13, 2010

BEST PICTURE

1. The Social Network (8.87)
2. Carlos (2.10)
3. Inception (1.39)
-. The King's Speech (1.39)
-. Winter's Bone (1.39)

6. The Ghost Writer (1.35)
7. The Kids Are All Right (1.07)
8. 127 Hours (1.06)
-. The Town (1.06)


10. Animal Kingdom (0.40)
--. Blue Valentine (0.40)
--. Get Low (0.40)

New Awards
This is a new update of the rankings of the experiment with the winners from LAFCA, NYFCC, the Southeastern Film Critics and the Top 10 from the BFCA.

At this stage we had three Top Tens: from NBR, Southeastern Film Critics and BFCA. Seven films were on all three of them: The Social Network, Inception, The King's Speech, Winter's Bone, The Fighter, Toy Story 3 and True Grit. Will these seven films be nominated for best picture? It's very likely at this point.

Best Director

1. David Fincher, The Social Network (8.35)
2. Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
3. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (1.18)
4. Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
5. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (1.10)

6. Bong Joon-Ho, Mother (0.67)
7. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (0.40)
-. David Michod, Animal Kingdom (0.40)
-. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (0.40)
-. Christopher Nolan, Inception (0.40)
-. Ben Affleck, The Town (0.40)
-. Debra Granik, The Winter's Bone (0.40)

Best Actor

1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech (8.83)
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (4.11)
3. Edgar Ramirez, Carlos (2.00)
4. Ewan McGregor, The Ghost Writer (1.50)

5. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
-. Robert Duvall, Get Low (1.00)
-. James Franco, 127 Hours (1.00)
-. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (1.00)

Best Actress

1. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (4.11)
2. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (3.11)
3. Kim Hye-Ja, Mother (3.00)
-. Lesley Manville, Another Year (3.00)
5. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (2.61)

6. Sylvie Testud, Lourdes (1.50)
-. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (1.00)
-. Helen Mirren, The Tempest (1.00)
-. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (1.00)
-. Noomi Rapace, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Tilda Swinton, I Am Love (1.00)
-. Naomi Watts, Fair Game (1.00)
-. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (1.00)

Supporting Actor

1. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (6.83)
2. Christian Bale, The Fighter (4.11)
3. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (3.00)

4. Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (1.00)
-. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (1.00)
-. Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (1.00)
-. Sean Penn, Fair Game (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Town (1.00)

Supporting Actress

1. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (7.22)
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (3.00)
3. Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (2.00)
4. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (1.50)

5. Amy Adams, The Fighter (1.00)
-. Marion Cotillard, Inception (1.00)
-. Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (1.00)
-. Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (1.00)
-. Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (1.00)

About the acting categories:
The only lock so far is Colin Firth (and probably Geoffrey Rush). But we'll have many more lock tomorow, after the Golden Globe nominations! Stay tuned!

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The King's Speech (5.77)
2. The Kids Are All Right (4.46)
3. Toy Story 3 (3.10)
4. Buried (3.00)
5. Carlos (2.41)

6. Inception (2.05)
7. Mother (1.15)
-. Of Gods and Men (1.15)
9. Biutiful (1.00)
-. The Eclipse (1.00)
-. Get Low (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. The Social Network (14.80)
2. Winter's Bone (2.05)
3. 127 Hours (1.70)
-. The Town (1.70)
5. The Ghost Writer (1.35)

6. Fair Game (1.00)
-. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

Look at those top five adapted screenplays! Wouldn't it be cool if those were the final nominees?

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

BEST PICTURE

The Experiment has begun!!!

Thanks to the Satellite Nominations and winners from the European Film Awards and the National Board of Review we have our first standings. So with no further ado... Let's take a look!

1. The Social Network (2.91)
2. The Ghost Writer (1.35)
3. Inception (0.73)
-. The King's Speech (0.73)
-. The Town (0.73)
-. Winter's Bone (0.73)

7. 127 Hours (0.40)
-. Animal Kingdom (0.40)
-. Blue Valentine (0.40)
-. Get Low (0.40)
-. The Kids Are All Right (0.40)

How to read this
First things first, for everyone new here, the experiment is no buzz-o-meter. It's more like an award-meter: if you win awards you receive points. Some critics say that this is the experiment's biggest weakness, but if you look at its prediction power, I'd call it its strength!

The Social Network received points because it won the NBR and received a Satellite nomination, The Ghost Writer won the EFA, while Inception, The King's Speech, The Town and Winter's Bone are the only films in the NBR Top 10 to be nominated for the Best Picture Satellite.

You can download the calculations (in excell) HERE!

Exactly one year ago, the future Oscar Winner was all ready on this list! (But so was Bright Star)

(Next sunday the Award Season starts for real, when in just a couple of days the real big guns like the Los Angeles Film Critics, the New York Film Critics and the Golden Globes all hand out awards, runners-up or nominations.)

Best Director

1. David Fincher, The Social Network (3.19)
2. Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

3. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (0.40)
-. David Michod, Animal Kingdom (0.40)
-. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (0.40)
-. Christopher Nolan, Inception (0.40)
-. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (0.40)
-. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (0.40)
-. Ben Affleck, The Town (0.40)
-. Debra Granik, The Winter's Bone (0.40)

How to read this
This doesn't mean that Fincher and Polanski are surefire nominees just yet. In the Best Picture and Best Director race, you need at least a nomination from the Directors Guild, the Producers Guild or a Screen Actors Ensemble Award!

Best Actor

1. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (4.11)
2. Ewan McGregor, The Ghost Writer (1.50)

3. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
-. Robert Duvall, Get Low (1.00)
-. Colin Firth, The King's Speech (1.00)
-. James Franco, 127 Hours (1.00)
-. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (1.00)

Best Actress

1. Lesley Manville, Another Year (3.00)
2. Sylvie Testud, Lourdes (1.50)

3. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (1.00)
-. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (1.00)
-. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (1.00)
-. Helen Mirren, The Tempest (1.00)
-. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (1.00)
-. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (1.00)
-. Noomi Rapace, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Tilda Swinton, I Am Love (1.00)
-. Naomi Watts, Fair Game (1.00)
-. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (1.00)

How to read this
I have some bad news for all actors and actresses who never received an Oscar nomination before. For them to get an Oscar nomination in the Best Actor or Best Actress category, they need a nomination from the Golden Globe and/or the Screen Actors Guild (a personal nomination, an ensemble nomination is not enough!).

If they fail to get that, their points will be divided by 3.

Pop Quiz: Can you name an actor or actress who scored a first Oscar nomination (in the leading categories) without receiving a Golden Globe nomination, or a Screen Actors Guild nomination first?

Supporting Actor

1. Christian Bale, The Fighter (4.11)

2. Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (1.00)
-. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (1.00)
-. Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (1.00)
-. Sean Penn, Fair Game (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Town (1.00)
-. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (1.00)

Supporting Actress

1. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (4.11)

2. Amy Adams, The Fighter (1.00)
-. Marion Cotillard, Inception (1.00)
-. Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (1.00)
-. Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (1.00)
-. Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (1.00)

How to read this
In the supporting categories the influences of the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild are even more powerfull. It doens't matter how many Oscar nominations you received in the past, if you don't have a nomination from the Globes or SAG, you're points will be divided by 3. (Here an ensemble nomination can be enough. Remember Alan Alda?)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. Buried (3.00)
2. Toy Story 3 (1.70)
3. Inception (1.35)
-. The King's Speech (1.35)
5. Of Gods and Men (1.15)

6. Biutiful (1.00)
-. The Eclipse (1.00)
-. Get Low (1.00)
-. The Kids Are All Right (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. The Social Network (6.57)
2. The Ghost Writer (1.35)
-. The Town (1.35)
-. Winter's Bone (1.35)

5. 127 Hours (1.00)
-. Fair Game (1.00)
-. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

How to read this
It looks like we have a first lock for an Oscar nomination! Since 5 points is usually enough to end up in the final top 5 Screenplays, The Social Network's screenplay is an almost certain Oscar nominee. But we all ready knew that, didn"t we...

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Another Year...

We're back and ready for the new edition of the world famous Oscar Experiment!!!

To recap: last year we had only one mistake in the acting categories (Maggie Gyllenhaal) and one wrong prediction in the writing categories (The Messenger), but unlike most Oscar pundits we did predict In the Loop!

In the last couple of weeks we improved the formula in the best picture and best director category, so that we'll do even better this year!

You can find out everything about The New Formula!

And find out the Awards Calendar!


I wish you all a happy award season!
Sijmen

Monday, February 22, 2010

It's over and done...

The experiment 2010 is over. And what a year it was! The Formula was the year's best predictor of the acting and writing nominations!

Take a look!

However, the best picture and best director categories need some adjustments. I'm sure we'll think of something before the experiment starts again in december 2010.

See you then!

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Last Update

Today the last guild nominees of the season were announced: the Costume Designers Guild. It led to two minor changes in the best picture standings:

1. Avatar jumped over The Hurt Locker to second place.
2. Up sank to 14th place, and was replaced by 500 Days of Summer.

The current standings are on my site, where you can compare it with the standings from other years.

I wish you all a happy nomination day :-)

Thursday, January 21, 2010

BEST PICTURE

1. Up in the Air (42.64)
2. The Hurt Locker (23.45)
3. Avatar (23.38)
4. Precious (22.60)
5. District 9 (11.00)

6. Inglorious Bastards (10.44)
7. Star Trek (5.46)
8. An Education (4.99)
9. Julie & Julia (4.39)
10. Invictus (4.20)


11. Nine (3.46)
12. A Serious Man (3.24)
13. Up (3.02)

Note
This is it! This year's Oscar Experiment is over. Now we just have to wait until Nomination Morning to see how well or how bad we have done. Or we can speculate... My speculation is that the Formula will score a decent 38 out of 45 (or 84.4%).

Let me specify that number category per category...

In the Best Picture Category there are seven locks (Avatar, Basters, The Hurt Locker, An Education, Precious, District 9, Up in the Air). I think Invictus is a safe number eight. The Formula says the remaining two spots will be taken by Star Trek and Julie & Julia. I rather expect Up and A Serious Man.

So the Formula might score a 8 out of 10 in the Best Picture Category.

Best Director

1. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (31.40)
2. James Cameron, Avatar (22.64)
3. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (20.35)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (15.79)
5. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (13.86)

6. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (9.53)
7. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)

8. J.J. Abrams, Star Trek (3.33)
9. Lone Scherfig, An Education (3.14)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (2.70)

Note
I would be very surprised if Tarantino wouldn't get a nomination. He is the reason why people like Inglourious Basterds. This is more the kind of film that would get snubbed in the Best Picture Category (back in the old days, I mean, when there were only five Best Picture Nominees).

I still think that both Daniels and Blomkamp will get nominated. My guess is that Reitman will be the surprise snub.

If so, the Formula will score a 4 out of 5 in this category.

Best Actor

1. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (20.99)
2. George Clooney, Up in the Air (19.97)
3. Colin Firth, A Single Man (12.05)
4. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (11.55)
5. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)


6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
7. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)

8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
I would be very surprised if the Formula doesn't score a 5 out of 5 here!

Best Actress

1. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (19.29)
2. Carey Mulligan, An Education (18.99)
3. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (11.05)
4. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (10.22)
5. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)


6. Tilda Swinton, Julia (5.22)
7. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)

8. Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones (2.11)
9. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
10. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.50)

Note
Streep, Mulligan, Sidibe and Bullock are locks. Fifth spot could offer a surprise, but Mirren is the safest bet. So the Formula could score yet another 5 out of 5 (though I still root for Swinton)

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (32.54)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (14.66)
3. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (8.33)
4. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)


6. Alfred Molina, An Education (2.11)
7. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
-. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.43)

8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
10. Alec Baldwin, It's Complicated (0.71)

Note
This category is as open as it was in early December. Waltz and Harrelson are locks. Tucci is a strong possibility. But the remaining two spots are impossible to predict. I would pick Molina for fourth place. Who is Fifth? Plummer? Mackie? Baldwin? Your guess is as good as mine.

Let's pick Mackie. That would mean the Formula would have a disastrous 3 out of 5.

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (30.93)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (16.88)
3. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (11.55)
4. Penelope Cruz, Nine (9.33)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)


6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)

8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
Mo'nique, Kendrick and Farmiga are locks. There are three candidates for the remaining two spots: Moore, Kruger and Morton (no matter what the Formula says, Cruz is completely out).

So another tragic 3 out of 5 is possible... But I think Moore and Morton are going to make it, so the Formula has a 4 out of 5.

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (26.74)
2. Inglorious Bastards (18.51)
3. A Serious Man (15.26)
4. Avatar (12.32)
5. Up (11.69)


6. 500 Days of Summer (10.99)
7. The Hangover (5.46)

8. The White Ribbon (4.02)
9. Sin Nombre (2.41)
-. Broken Embraces (2.41)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (36.78)
2. Precious (13.63)
3. District 9 (9.60)
4. In the Loop (8.44)
5. An Education (7.43)


6. Star Trek (6.81)
7. Julie & Julia (5.46)

8. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.86)
9. Crazy Heart (4.00)
10. Invictus (3.05)

Note
The Hurt Locker, Basterds, A Serious Man and Up are locks for Original Screenplay. There are 3 possibilities for that fifth spot: Avatar, 500 Days of Summer and The White Ribbon. My guess is The White Ribbon over Avatar.

The Adapted Screenplay provides one question mark: In the Loop. Is that film too obscure for the Academy? If so, it might get replaced by Crazy Heart (or Fantastic Mr. Fox). My guess is that Loop gets in.

So I expect the Formula to score a splendid 9 out of 10 at the screenplay categories.

So the overall prediction rate will be 38 out of 45 (or 84.4%). Or are my speculations nothing but wishfull thinking? We'll know on February 2. See you then!

Sunday, January 17, 2010

BEST PICTURE

1. Up in the Air (41.62)
2. The Hurt Locker (22.58)
3. Avatar (21.92)
4. Precious (21.58)
5. District 9 (10.56)

6. Inglorious Bastards (10.44)
7. Star Trek (5.02)
8. An Education (4.57)
9. Julie & Julia (4.39)

10. Invictus (4.20)

11. Nine (3.46)
12. A Serious Man (3.24)
13. Up (3.02)

Note
The next update (22/1) will be my last. By then I want to be ready to compare the Formula's predictionw with my own. But what would be good predictions in this category? Locks: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Basterds, District 9, Precious, Up in the Air, An Education. What else? Help needed!

P.S.: Since they failed to win any Golden Globe, The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds are now official Too Early Front Runners (hence their scores are divided by 2.5).

Best Director

1. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (31.40)
2. James Cameron, Avatar (21.31)
3. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (19.62)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (15.79)
5. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (11.42)


6. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (9.02)
7. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
8. J.J. Abrams, Star Trek (3.11)
9. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (2.70)
10. Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man (2.43)

Note
This is the Formula's boldes prediction of the year: no Tarantino for best director. The most logic prediction would be Reitman, Cameron, Bigelow, Tarantino and Blomkamp, no?

Best Actor

1. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (19.88)
2. George Clooney, Up in the Air (18.86)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (10.44)


6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
7. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
Of all the categories, this is the one I feel the most confident about. Or what do you think?

Best Actress

1. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (18.18)
2. Carey Mulligan, An Education (17.88)
3. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (10.22)
4. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (9.94)
5. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)


6. Tilda Swinton, Julia (5.22)
7. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)
8. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
9. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.50)
10. Sandra Bullock, The Proposal (1.23)

Note
Streep, Mulligan, Bullock and Sibide seem locks. But who will be the fifth nominee? What's your guess?

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (31.43)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (14.66)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)


6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
7. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
10. Paul Schneider, Bright Star (0.45)

Note
Only two locks: Waltz and Harrelson. The other three spots are impossible to predict. I think my prediction will include Waltz, Harrelson, Mackie, Molina and... ???

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (29.82)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (15.77)
3. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (10.44)
4. Penelope Cruz, Nine (9.33)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)


6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
Penelope Cruz won't be nominated. Samantha Morton is bound to take her place. Agree?

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (25.28)
2. Inglorious Bastards (17.40)
3. A Serious Man (14.15)
4. Avatar (11.97)

5. 500 Days of Summer (10.99)

6. Up (10.58)
7. The Hangover (4.35)
8. The White Ribbon (4.02)
9. Sin Nombre (2.41)
-. Broken Embraces (2.41)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (35.32)
2. Precious (12.17)
3. District 9 (8.49)
4. In the Loop (7.33)

5. Star Trek (6.81)

6. An Education (5.97)
7. Julie & Julia (5.46)
8. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.86)
9. Crazy Heart (4.00)
10. Invictus (3.05)

Note
I think everyone agrees here, no?
Original: The Hurt Locker, Basterds, Up, A Serious Man and 500 Days of Summer, with Avatar and The White Ribbon as possible spoilers?
Adapted: Up in the Air, Precious, District 9, In the Loop and An Education?

Anyone out there with a different view?

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (43.97)
2. Up in the Air (39.78)
3. Inglorious Bastards (23.36)
4. Precious (21.58)
5. Avatar (18.74)

6. District 9 (10.56)
7. Star Trek (5.02)
8. An Education (4.57)

9. Invictus (4.20)
10. Nine (3.46)

11. Julie & Julia (3.31)
12. A Serious Man (3.24)
13. Up (3.02)

Note
I don't feel safe about these predictions at all! There is a certain rule within the Formula that states:
If a film is nominated for both the WGA and the PGA, then the producers receive 1 point, and the directors 2 points.

But that is a rule from a time when the Producers Guild had five, not ten nominations. If the PGA would have only five nominees, would Precious have been among them? Or Star Trek? Or District 9?

It's also a rule from a time when all the important screenplay contenders were eligible for the Writers Guild. If District 9, An Education, Fantastic Mr. Fox and In the Loop were eligible, would Precious have been a WGA nominee? Or Star Trek?

So I have no idea how accurate these predictions are anymore... Aaaarrgh! (might join a self-help support group soon!)

Nine Note: Since Nine failed to get a Writers Guild Nomination, it's points got divided by 2.5 again. Only if the film wins a Golden Globe, it will jump back again in the top 10. (see The Formula's Most Important Rule).

Next up: The winners from the Broadcast Film Critics (1/15) and the Golden Globes (1/17). Next update 1/18. The end is near!

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (38.19)
2. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (29.38)

3. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (20.65)
4. James Cameron, Avatar (17.99)
5. Lee Daniels, Precious (15.79)


6. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (11.42)
7. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
8. J.J. Abrams, Star Trek (3.11)
9. Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man (2.43)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (2.37)

Note
Many 'insiders' note that Lee Daniels is the DGA nominee that could be left out when the Oscar Nominations are announced. I think so too. But according to the Formula, the fifth spot is a showdown between Tarantino's Basterds and the Aliens from District 9.

If the Tarantino film fails to win best picture, best director or best screenplay at the Golden Globes next sunday, he's out and District 9 will take his place... Without an important Golden Globe, The Formula will consider Inglourious Basterds as a Too Early Front Runner.

Bad News Note
The last film The Formula considered a Too Early Front Runner, was Crash, a film that eventually won the best picture Oscar...

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (18.86)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (15.77)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (10.44)


6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
7. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
No changes in the acting categories...

Best Actress

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (17.88)
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (14.82)
3. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (9.94)
4. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)
5. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (6.11)


6. Tilda Swinton, Julia (5.22)
7. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)
8. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
9. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.50)
10. Sandra Bullock, The Proposal (1.23)

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (27.32)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (14.66)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)


6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
7. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
10. Paul Schneider, Bright Star (0.45)

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (25.71)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (15.77)
3. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (10.44)
4. Penelope Cruz, Nine (9.33)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)


6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
I discovered Penelope Cruz received two points too many back in december... It doesn't really matter, she stays a lock (according to the Formula)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (23.17)
2. A Serious Man (14.15)
3. Inglorious Bastards (13.94)

4. 500 Days of Summer (10.99)
5. Up (9.88)

6. Avatar (9.51)
7. The Hangover (4.35)
8. The White Ribbon (2.76)
9. Sin Nombre (2.41)
10. It's Complicated (2.35)

Note
Two spots left for three films: 500 Days of Summer, Up and Avatar. Avatar's screenplay can receive two points if Avatar wins best picture at the globes. The Bafta nominations will determine the rest...

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (31.21)
2. Precious (12.17)
3. District 9 (8.49)
4. In the Loop (7.33)

5. Star Trek (6.81)

6. An Education (5.97)
7. Julie & Julia (5.46)
8. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.86)
9. Crazy Heart (4.00)
10. Invictus (3.05)

Note
BAFTA will decide if the fifth spot goes to Star Trek or An Education...

Friday, January 8, 2010

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (37.15)
2. Up in the Air (33.40)
3. Inglorious Bastards (22.48)
4. Precious (18.10)
5. Avatar (11.92)

6. Nine (9.17)
7. District 9 (8.46)
8. An Education (4.89)
9. Invictus (4.20)

10. Star Trek (2.46)
--. Up (2.46)

12. A Serious Man (1.67)
13. 500 Days of Summer (1.32)
14. The White Ribbon (1.28)
15. Julie & Julia (1.24)

Note
There's one important thing: the rankings are not that important. The Formula does not predict who will WIN! Only who will be nominated. So that Avatar is on the fifth instead of first place, is not that important.

It does seem that there are eleven films vying for a place in the Top 10. If the ranking stays like this and Star Trek and Up tie for tenth place, we'll use the Tie Breaker, which means Up will be in, and Star Trek will be out. (Nine needs to win a Golden Globe to stay safe).

Next: The Writers Guild Nominations on january 11 and the American Cinema Editors on january 12! (new update january 13)

P.S. The bold ones are locks for a nomination.

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (31.97)
2. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (23.38)

3. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (20.21)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (12.35)
5. James Cameron, Avatar (11.77)

6. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (9.66)
7. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)
8. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
9. Lone Scherfig, An Education (2.43)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (2.37)

Note
To my own suprise there are only two locks. The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air and Inglourious Basterds must win an important Golden Globe (picture, director, actor, actress or screenplay) otherwise they will be this year's Too Early Front Runner. And that's especially bad news for Basterds. If the Tarantino film fails to win one of these, its score will be divided by 2.5 and it'll leave the top 5, in favor of District 9.

The chances for District 9 to crack into the top 5, are almost diminished by its ineligibility for the Writers Guild Award. In fact Inglourious Basterds, An Education, Up, In the Loop, A Single Man, The Road and Fantastic Mr. Fox are all ineligible for the Writers Guild. That and the new rule by the Producers Guild to nominate ten instead of five films, will have a bad effect on the Formula's prediction rate, I'm afraid, and especially in the best director category.

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (18.86)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (15.77)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (10.44)


6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best actor...

Best Actress

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (17.88)
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (14.82)
3. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (9.94)
4. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)
5. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (6.11)


6. Tilda Swinton, Julia (5.22)
7. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)
8. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
9. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.50)
10. Sandra Bullock, The Proposal (1.23)

Note
The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best actress...

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (27.32)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (14.66)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)


6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
7. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
10. Paul Schneider, Bright Star (0.45)

Note
The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best supporting actor...

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (25.71)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (15.77)
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (11.44)
4. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (10.44)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)


6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
Moore is the only difference with the SAG nominations (they went for Kruger instead).

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (19.06)
2. Inglorious Bastards (13.94)
3. A Serious Man (10.04)
4. Up (9.88)

5. 500 Days of Summer (6.88)

6. Avatar (5.40)
7. The White Ribbon (2.76)
8. Sin Nombre (2.41)
9. It's Complicated (2.35)
10. Broken Embraces (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)
-. The Maid (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (27.10)
2. District 9 (8.49)
3. Precious (8.06)

4. In the Loop (7.33)
5. An Education (5.97)

6. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.86)
7. Invictus (3.05)
8. Where the Wild Things Are (3.05)
9. Star Trek (2.70)
10. Julie & Julia (1.35)

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (34.19)
2. Up in the Air (30.94)
3. Inglorious Bastards (19.20)
4. Precious (15.64)

5. Nine (9.17)
6. District 9 (8.46)
7. An Education (4.89)
8. Invictus (4.20)
9. Avatar (2.86)
10. Star Trek (2.46)
--. Up (2.46)

12. A Serious Man (1.67)
13. 500 Days of Summer (1.32)
14. Julie & Julia (1.24)
15. The White Ribbon (0.94)

Note
The Producers Guild Nominations are in! And it's an exciting list full of movies I really love (The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Up, Star Trek, District 9). Maybe the Academy's move to ten best picture nominees isn't so bad after all...

But back to the Formula. What's Nine still doing there? If, and only IF Nine doesn't win any Golden Globe, it's points will be divided by 2.5 and it will leave the top 10 (see the Formula's most important rule).

Unfortunately, I still believe Nine is the frontrunner for the Best Picture - Comedy or Musical Golden Globe. So Nine is probably here to stay. (Unless the unlikely event that the Formula is wrong, but we don't have such absurd thoughts)

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (27.13)
2. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (19.04)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds (14.05)

4. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (9.66)
5. Lee Daniels, Precious (8.02)

6. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)
7. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
8. Lone Scherfig, An Education (2.43)
9. James Cameron, Avatar (2.04)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.94)

Note
After the DGA nominations are announced, James Cameron will be in the top 5. Bigelow, Reitman & Tarantino will be his fellow nominees. I always felt sure that Lee Daniels would fill the fifth spot, but now I feel Blomkamp could be a spoiler... Mmmmm... I like spoilers...

Monday, January 4, 2010

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (29.73)
2. Inglorious Bastards (14.74)
3. Precious (11.18)
4. Up in the Air (10.96)

5. Nine (9.17)

6. An Education (2.83)
7. Invictus (2.14)
8. A Serious Man (1.67)
9. 500 Days of Summer (1.32)
10. Julie & Julia (1.24)

11. The White Ribbon (0.94)
12. It's Complicated (0.89)
13. The Last Station (0.86)
14. The Messenger (0.84)
15. Avatar (0.80)

Note
The last update before the Producers Guild (1/5) and Directors Guild (1/7) will radically change the rankings. New awards since the last update are the National Society of Film Critics, the nominations from the Online Film Critics and the 'for your considerations' from Entertainment Weekly.

I expect this to be the last update without an Avatar in the Best Picture Top 10. (The bold titles are locks)

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (25.80)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (12.72)
3. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (7.51)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (6.68)
5. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)

6. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.25)
7. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (2.33)
8. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.94)
9. Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man (1.77)
10. Lone Scherfig, An Education (1.70)

Note
Just one lock, but that will change very soon...

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (18.86)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (15.77)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (9.94)


6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best actor...

Best Actress

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (17.88)
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (14.82)
3. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (9.94)
4. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)
5. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (6.11)


6. Tilda Swinton, Julia (5.22)
7. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)
8. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
9. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.50)
10. Sandra Bullock, The Proposal (1.23)

Note
Since Julia is ineligible for the BAFTA's, Swinton can't get any more points to crack into the top 5. The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best actress...

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (26.82)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (16.66)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)


6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
7. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
10. Paul Schneider, Bright Star (0.45)

Note
The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best supporting actor... Aaargh! How can the Formula do its work if all the awards go to the same actor over and over and over again? Sure he was fun, but was Waltz really that good?
Congrats to the National Board of Review for being the one and only year-end award not awarding Christoph Waltz (they went for Harrelson).

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (25.21)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (15.77)
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (11.44)
4. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (10.44)

5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)

6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
Diane Kruger can only defeat Jullianne Moore if she wins the best supporting actress award of the Online Film Critics and receives a nomination from BAFTA. But the idea of any supporting actress award not going to Mo'Nique is so unlikely these days. Which is good news for Julianne Moore. Moore is the only difference with the SAG nominations (they went for Kruger instead).

I don't feel confident about this category at all. Are Kruger and Morton not stronger contenders than Cruz and Moore? Formula, I fear you're making two mistakes here...

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (14.25)
2. A Serious Man (10.04)
3. Inglorious Bastards (8.63)

4. Up (7.07)
5. 500 Days of Summer (6.88)

6. Sin Nombre (2.41)
7. It's Complicated (2.35)
8. The White Ribbon (1.50)
9. Broken Embraces (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)
-. The Maid (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (22.29)

2. In the Loop (7.33)
3. District 9 (6.03)
4. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.36)
5. An Education (3.51)

6. Precious (3.25)
7. Where the Wild Things Are (2.81)
8. Julie & Julia (1.35)
9. The Informant! (1.00)