1. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (31.40)
2. James Cameron, Avatar (22.64)
3. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (20.35)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (15.79)
5. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (13.86)
6. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (9.53)
7. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
8. J.J. Abrams, Star Trek (3.33)
9. Lone Scherfig, An Education (3.14)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (2.70)
I would be very surprised if Tarantino wouldn't get a nomination. He is the reason why people like Inglourious Basterds. This is more the kind of film that would get snubbed in the Best Picture Category (back in the old days, I mean, when there were only five Best Picture Nominees).
I still think that both Daniels and Blomkamp will get nominated. My guess is that Reitman will be the surprise snub.
If so, the Formula will score a 4 out of 5 in this category.