Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Last Update

Today the last guild nominees of the season were announced: the Costume Designers Guild. It led to two minor changes in the best picture standings:

1. Avatar jumped over The Hurt Locker to second place.
2. Up sank to 14th place, and was replaced by 500 Days of Summer.

The current standings are on my site, where you can compare it with the standings from other years.

I wish you all a happy nomination day :-)

Thursday, January 21, 2010

BEST PICTURE

1. Up in the Air (42.64)
2. The Hurt Locker (23.45)
3. Avatar (23.38)
4. Precious (22.60)
5. District 9 (11.00)

6. Inglorious Bastards (10.44)
7. Star Trek (5.46)
8. An Education (4.99)
9. Julie & Julia (4.39)
10. Invictus (4.20)


11. Nine (3.46)
12. A Serious Man (3.24)
13. Up (3.02)

Note
This is it! This year's Oscar Experiment is over. Now we just have to wait until Nomination Morning to see how well or how bad we have done. Or we can speculate... My speculation is that the Formula will score a decent 38 out of 45 (or 84.4%).

Let me specify that number category per category...

In the Best Picture Category there are seven locks (Avatar, Basters, The Hurt Locker, An Education, Precious, District 9, Up in the Air). I think Invictus is a safe number eight. The Formula says the remaining two spots will be taken by Star Trek and Julie & Julia. I rather expect Up and A Serious Man.

So the Formula might score a 8 out of 10 in the Best Picture Category.

Best Director

1. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (31.40)
2. James Cameron, Avatar (22.64)
3. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (20.35)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (15.79)
5. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (13.86)

6. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (9.53)
7. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)

8. J.J. Abrams, Star Trek (3.33)
9. Lone Scherfig, An Education (3.14)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (2.70)

Note
I would be very surprised if Tarantino wouldn't get a nomination. He is the reason why people like Inglourious Basterds. This is more the kind of film that would get snubbed in the Best Picture Category (back in the old days, I mean, when there were only five Best Picture Nominees).

I still think that both Daniels and Blomkamp will get nominated. My guess is that Reitman will be the surprise snub.

If so, the Formula will score a 4 out of 5 in this category.

Best Actor

1. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (20.99)
2. George Clooney, Up in the Air (19.97)
3. Colin Firth, A Single Man (12.05)
4. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (11.55)
5. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)


6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
7. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)

8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
I would be very surprised if the Formula doesn't score a 5 out of 5 here!

Best Actress

1. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (19.29)
2. Carey Mulligan, An Education (18.99)
3. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (11.05)
4. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (10.22)
5. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)


6. Tilda Swinton, Julia (5.22)
7. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)

8. Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones (2.11)
9. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
10. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.50)

Note
Streep, Mulligan, Sidibe and Bullock are locks. Fifth spot could offer a surprise, but Mirren is the safest bet. So the Formula could score yet another 5 out of 5 (though I still root for Swinton)

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (32.54)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (14.66)
3. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (8.33)
4. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)


6. Alfred Molina, An Education (2.11)
7. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
-. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.43)

8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
10. Alec Baldwin, It's Complicated (0.71)

Note
This category is as open as it was in early December. Waltz and Harrelson are locks. Tucci is a strong possibility. But the remaining two spots are impossible to predict. I would pick Molina for fourth place. Who is Fifth? Plummer? Mackie? Baldwin? Your guess is as good as mine.

Let's pick Mackie. That would mean the Formula would have a disastrous 3 out of 5.

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (30.93)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (16.88)
3. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (11.55)
4. Penelope Cruz, Nine (9.33)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)


6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)

8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
Mo'nique, Kendrick and Farmiga are locks. There are three candidates for the remaining two spots: Moore, Kruger and Morton (no matter what the Formula says, Cruz is completely out).

So another tragic 3 out of 5 is possible... But I think Moore and Morton are going to make it, so the Formula has a 4 out of 5.

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (26.74)
2. Inglorious Bastards (18.51)
3. A Serious Man (15.26)
4. Avatar (12.32)
5. Up (11.69)


6. 500 Days of Summer (10.99)
7. The Hangover (5.46)

8. The White Ribbon (4.02)
9. Sin Nombre (2.41)
-. Broken Embraces (2.41)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (36.78)
2. Precious (13.63)
3. District 9 (9.60)
4. In the Loop (8.44)
5. An Education (7.43)


6. Star Trek (6.81)
7. Julie & Julia (5.46)

8. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.86)
9. Crazy Heart (4.00)
10. Invictus (3.05)

Note
The Hurt Locker, Basterds, A Serious Man and Up are locks for Original Screenplay. There are 3 possibilities for that fifth spot: Avatar, 500 Days of Summer and The White Ribbon. My guess is The White Ribbon over Avatar.

The Adapted Screenplay provides one question mark: In the Loop. Is that film too obscure for the Academy? If so, it might get replaced by Crazy Heart (or Fantastic Mr. Fox). My guess is that Loop gets in.

So I expect the Formula to score a splendid 9 out of 10 at the screenplay categories.

So the overall prediction rate will be 38 out of 45 (or 84.4%). Or are my speculations nothing but wishfull thinking? We'll know on February 2. See you then!

Sunday, January 17, 2010

BEST PICTURE

1. Up in the Air (41.62)
2. The Hurt Locker (22.58)
3. Avatar (21.92)
4. Precious (21.58)
5. District 9 (10.56)

6. Inglorious Bastards (10.44)
7. Star Trek (5.02)
8. An Education (4.57)
9. Julie & Julia (4.39)

10. Invictus (4.20)

11. Nine (3.46)
12. A Serious Man (3.24)
13. Up (3.02)

Note
The next update (22/1) will be my last. By then I want to be ready to compare the Formula's predictionw with my own. But what would be good predictions in this category? Locks: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Basterds, District 9, Precious, Up in the Air, An Education. What else? Help needed!

P.S.: Since they failed to win any Golden Globe, The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds are now official Too Early Front Runners (hence their scores are divided by 2.5).

Best Director

1. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (31.40)
2. James Cameron, Avatar (21.31)
3. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (19.62)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (15.79)
5. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (11.42)


6. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (9.02)
7. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
8. J.J. Abrams, Star Trek (3.11)
9. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (2.70)
10. Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man (2.43)

Note
This is the Formula's boldes prediction of the year: no Tarantino for best director. The most logic prediction would be Reitman, Cameron, Bigelow, Tarantino and Blomkamp, no?

Best Actor

1. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (19.88)
2. George Clooney, Up in the Air (18.86)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (10.44)


6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
7. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
Of all the categories, this is the one I feel the most confident about. Or what do you think?

Best Actress

1. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (18.18)
2. Carey Mulligan, An Education (17.88)
3. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (10.22)
4. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (9.94)
5. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)


6. Tilda Swinton, Julia (5.22)
7. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)
8. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
9. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.50)
10. Sandra Bullock, The Proposal (1.23)

Note
Streep, Mulligan, Bullock and Sibide seem locks. But who will be the fifth nominee? What's your guess?

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (31.43)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (14.66)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)


6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
7. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
10. Paul Schneider, Bright Star (0.45)

Note
Only two locks: Waltz and Harrelson. The other three spots are impossible to predict. I think my prediction will include Waltz, Harrelson, Mackie, Molina and... ???

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (29.82)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (15.77)
3. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (10.44)
4. Penelope Cruz, Nine (9.33)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)


6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
Penelope Cruz won't be nominated. Samantha Morton is bound to take her place. Agree?

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (25.28)
2. Inglorious Bastards (17.40)
3. A Serious Man (14.15)
4. Avatar (11.97)

5. 500 Days of Summer (10.99)

6. Up (10.58)
7. The Hangover (4.35)
8. The White Ribbon (4.02)
9. Sin Nombre (2.41)
-. Broken Embraces (2.41)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (35.32)
2. Precious (12.17)
3. District 9 (8.49)
4. In the Loop (7.33)

5. Star Trek (6.81)

6. An Education (5.97)
7. Julie & Julia (5.46)
8. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.86)
9. Crazy Heart (4.00)
10. Invictus (3.05)

Note
I think everyone agrees here, no?
Original: The Hurt Locker, Basterds, Up, A Serious Man and 500 Days of Summer, with Avatar and The White Ribbon as possible spoilers?
Adapted: Up in the Air, Precious, District 9, In the Loop and An Education?

Anyone out there with a different view?

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (43.97)
2. Up in the Air (39.78)
3. Inglorious Bastards (23.36)
4. Precious (21.58)
5. Avatar (18.74)

6. District 9 (10.56)
7. Star Trek (5.02)
8. An Education (4.57)

9. Invictus (4.20)
10. Nine (3.46)

11. Julie & Julia (3.31)
12. A Serious Man (3.24)
13. Up (3.02)

Note
I don't feel safe about these predictions at all! There is a certain rule within the Formula that states:
If a film is nominated for both the WGA and the PGA, then the producers receive 1 point, and the directors 2 points.

But that is a rule from a time when the Producers Guild had five, not ten nominations. If the PGA would have only five nominees, would Precious have been among them? Or Star Trek? Or District 9?

It's also a rule from a time when all the important screenplay contenders were eligible for the Writers Guild. If District 9, An Education, Fantastic Mr. Fox and In the Loop were eligible, would Precious have been a WGA nominee? Or Star Trek?

So I have no idea how accurate these predictions are anymore... Aaaarrgh! (might join a self-help support group soon!)

Nine Note: Since Nine failed to get a Writers Guild Nomination, it's points got divided by 2.5 again. Only if the film wins a Golden Globe, it will jump back again in the top 10. (see The Formula's Most Important Rule).

Next up: The winners from the Broadcast Film Critics (1/15) and the Golden Globes (1/17). Next update 1/18. The end is near!

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (38.19)
2. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (29.38)

3. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (20.65)
4. James Cameron, Avatar (17.99)
5. Lee Daniels, Precious (15.79)


6. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (11.42)
7. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
8. J.J. Abrams, Star Trek (3.11)
9. Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man (2.43)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (2.37)

Note
Many 'insiders' note that Lee Daniels is the DGA nominee that could be left out when the Oscar Nominations are announced. I think so too. But according to the Formula, the fifth spot is a showdown between Tarantino's Basterds and the Aliens from District 9.

If the Tarantino film fails to win best picture, best director or best screenplay at the Golden Globes next sunday, he's out and District 9 will take his place... Without an important Golden Globe, The Formula will consider Inglourious Basterds as a Too Early Front Runner.

Bad News Note
The last film The Formula considered a Too Early Front Runner, was Crash, a film that eventually won the best picture Oscar...

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (18.86)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (15.77)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (10.44)


6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
7. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
No changes in the acting categories...

Best Actress

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (17.88)
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (14.82)
3. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (9.94)
4. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)
5. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (6.11)


6. Tilda Swinton, Julia (5.22)
7. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)
8. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
9. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.50)
10. Sandra Bullock, The Proposal (1.23)

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (27.32)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (14.66)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)


6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
7. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
10. Paul Schneider, Bright Star (0.45)

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (25.71)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (15.77)
3. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (10.44)
4. Penelope Cruz, Nine (9.33)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)


6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
I discovered Penelope Cruz received two points too many back in december... It doesn't really matter, she stays a lock (according to the Formula)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (23.17)
2. A Serious Man (14.15)
3. Inglorious Bastards (13.94)

4. 500 Days of Summer (10.99)
5. Up (9.88)

6. Avatar (9.51)
7. The Hangover (4.35)
8. The White Ribbon (2.76)
9. Sin Nombre (2.41)
10. It's Complicated (2.35)

Note
Two spots left for three films: 500 Days of Summer, Up and Avatar. Avatar's screenplay can receive two points if Avatar wins best picture at the globes. The Bafta nominations will determine the rest...

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (31.21)
2. Precious (12.17)
3. District 9 (8.49)
4. In the Loop (7.33)

5. Star Trek (6.81)

6. An Education (5.97)
7. Julie & Julia (5.46)
8. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.86)
9. Crazy Heart (4.00)
10. Invictus (3.05)

Note
BAFTA will decide if the fifth spot goes to Star Trek or An Education...

Friday, January 8, 2010

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (37.15)
2. Up in the Air (33.40)
3. Inglorious Bastards (22.48)
4. Precious (18.10)
5. Avatar (11.92)

6. Nine (9.17)
7. District 9 (8.46)
8. An Education (4.89)
9. Invictus (4.20)

10. Star Trek (2.46)
--. Up (2.46)

12. A Serious Man (1.67)
13. 500 Days of Summer (1.32)
14. The White Ribbon (1.28)
15. Julie & Julia (1.24)

Note
There's one important thing: the rankings are not that important. The Formula does not predict who will WIN! Only who will be nominated. So that Avatar is on the fifth instead of first place, is not that important.

It does seem that there are eleven films vying for a place in the Top 10. If the ranking stays like this and Star Trek and Up tie for tenth place, we'll use the Tie Breaker, which means Up will be in, and Star Trek will be out. (Nine needs to win a Golden Globe to stay safe).

Next: The Writers Guild Nominations on january 11 and the American Cinema Editors on january 12! (new update january 13)

P.S. The bold ones are locks for a nomination.

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (31.97)
2. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (23.38)

3. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (20.21)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (12.35)
5. James Cameron, Avatar (11.77)

6. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (9.66)
7. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)
8. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
9. Lone Scherfig, An Education (2.43)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (2.37)

Note
To my own suprise there are only two locks. The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air and Inglourious Basterds must win an important Golden Globe (picture, director, actor, actress or screenplay) otherwise they will be this year's Too Early Front Runner. And that's especially bad news for Basterds. If the Tarantino film fails to win one of these, its score will be divided by 2.5 and it'll leave the top 5, in favor of District 9.

The chances for District 9 to crack into the top 5, are almost diminished by its ineligibility for the Writers Guild Award. In fact Inglourious Basterds, An Education, Up, In the Loop, A Single Man, The Road and Fantastic Mr. Fox are all ineligible for the Writers Guild. That and the new rule by the Producers Guild to nominate ten instead of five films, will have a bad effect on the Formula's prediction rate, I'm afraid, and especially in the best director category.

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (18.86)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (15.77)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (10.44)


6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best actor...

Best Actress

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (17.88)
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (14.82)
3. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (9.94)
4. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)
5. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (6.11)


6. Tilda Swinton, Julia (5.22)
7. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)
8. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
9. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.50)
10. Sandra Bullock, The Proposal (1.23)

Note
The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best actress...

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (27.32)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (14.66)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)


6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
7. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
10. Paul Schneider, Bright Star (0.45)

Note
The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best supporting actor...

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (25.71)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (15.77)
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (11.44)
4. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (10.44)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)


6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
Moore is the only difference with the SAG nominations (they went for Kruger instead).

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (19.06)
2. Inglorious Bastards (13.94)
3. A Serious Man (10.04)
4. Up (9.88)

5. 500 Days of Summer (6.88)

6. Avatar (5.40)
7. The White Ribbon (2.76)
8. Sin Nombre (2.41)
9. It's Complicated (2.35)
10. Broken Embraces (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)
-. The Maid (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (27.10)
2. District 9 (8.49)
3. Precious (8.06)

4. In the Loop (7.33)
5. An Education (5.97)

6. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.86)
7. Invictus (3.05)
8. Where the Wild Things Are (3.05)
9. Star Trek (2.70)
10. Julie & Julia (1.35)

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (34.19)
2. Up in the Air (30.94)
3. Inglorious Bastards (19.20)
4. Precious (15.64)

5. Nine (9.17)
6. District 9 (8.46)
7. An Education (4.89)
8. Invictus (4.20)
9. Avatar (2.86)
10. Star Trek (2.46)
--. Up (2.46)

12. A Serious Man (1.67)
13. 500 Days of Summer (1.32)
14. Julie & Julia (1.24)
15. The White Ribbon (0.94)

Note
The Producers Guild Nominations are in! And it's an exciting list full of movies I really love (The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Up, Star Trek, District 9). Maybe the Academy's move to ten best picture nominees isn't so bad after all...

But back to the Formula. What's Nine still doing there? If, and only IF Nine doesn't win any Golden Globe, it's points will be divided by 2.5 and it will leave the top 10 (see the Formula's most important rule).

Unfortunately, I still believe Nine is the frontrunner for the Best Picture - Comedy or Musical Golden Globe. So Nine is probably here to stay. (Unless the unlikely event that the Formula is wrong, but we don't have such absurd thoughts)

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (27.13)
2. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (19.04)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds (14.05)

4. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (9.66)
5. Lee Daniels, Precious (8.02)

6. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)
7. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
8. Lone Scherfig, An Education (2.43)
9. James Cameron, Avatar (2.04)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.94)

Note
After the DGA nominations are announced, James Cameron will be in the top 5. Bigelow, Reitman & Tarantino will be his fellow nominees. I always felt sure that Lee Daniels would fill the fifth spot, but now I feel Blomkamp could be a spoiler... Mmmmm... I like spoilers...

Monday, January 4, 2010

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (29.73)
2. Inglorious Bastards (14.74)
3. Precious (11.18)
4. Up in the Air (10.96)

5. Nine (9.17)

6. An Education (2.83)
7. Invictus (2.14)
8. A Serious Man (1.67)
9. 500 Days of Summer (1.32)
10. Julie & Julia (1.24)

11. The White Ribbon (0.94)
12. It's Complicated (0.89)
13. The Last Station (0.86)
14. The Messenger (0.84)
15. Avatar (0.80)

Note
The last update before the Producers Guild (1/5) and Directors Guild (1/7) will radically change the rankings. New awards since the last update are the National Society of Film Critics, the nominations from the Online Film Critics and the 'for your considerations' from Entertainment Weekly.

I expect this to be the last update without an Avatar in the Best Picture Top 10. (The bold titles are locks)

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (25.80)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (12.72)
3. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (7.51)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (6.68)
5. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)

6. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.25)
7. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (2.33)
8. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.94)
9. Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man (1.77)
10. Lone Scherfig, An Education (1.70)

Note
Just one lock, but that will change very soon...

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (18.86)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (15.77)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (9.94)


6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best actor...

Best Actress

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (17.88)
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (14.82)
3. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (9.94)
4. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)
5. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (6.11)


6. Tilda Swinton, Julia (5.22)
7. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)
8. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
9. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.50)
10. Sandra Bullock, The Proposal (1.23)

Note
Since Julia is ineligible for the BAFTA's, Swinton can't get any more points to crack into the top 5. The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best actress...

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (26.82)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (16.66)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)


6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
7. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
10. Paul Schneider, Bright Star (0.45)

Note
The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best supporting actor... Aaargh! How can the Formula do its work if all the awards go to the same actor over and over and over again? Sure he was fun, but was Waltz really that good?
Congrats to the National Board of Review for being the one and only year-end award not awarding Christoph Waltz (they went for Harrelson).

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (25.21)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (15.77)
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (11.44)
4. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (10.44)

5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)

6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
Diane Kruger can only defeat Jullianne Moore if she wins the best supporting actress award of the Online Film Critics and receives a nomination from BAFTA. But the idea of any supporting actress award not going to Mo'Nique is so unlikely these days. Which is good news for Julianne Moore. Moore is the only difference with the SAG nominations (they went for Kruger instead).

I don't feel confident about this category at all. Are Kruger and Morton not stronger contenders than Cruz and Moore? Formula, I fear you're making two mistakes here...

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (14.25)
2. A Serious Man (10.04)
3. Inglorious Bastards (8.63)

4. Up (7.07)
5. 500 Days of Summer (6.88)

6. Sin Nombre (2.41)
7. It's Complicated (2.35)
8. The White Ribbon (1.50)
9. Broken Embraces (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)
-. The Maid (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (22.29)

2. In the Loop (7.33)
3. District 9 (6.03)
4. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.36)
5. An Education (3.51)

6. Precious (3.25)
7. Where the Wild Things Are (2.81)
8. Julie & Julia (1.35)
9. The Informant! (1.00)