Thursday, January 21, 2010

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (26.74)
2. Inglorious Bastards (18.51)
3. A Serious Man (15.26)
4. Avatar (12.32)
5. Up (11.69)


6. 500 Days of Summer (10.99)
7. The Hangover (5.46)

8. The White Ribbon (4.02)
9. Sin Nombre (2.41)
-. Broken Embraces (2.41)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (36.78)
2. Precious (13.63)
3. District 9 (9.60)
4. In the Loop (8.44)
5. An Education (7.43)


6. Star Trek (6.81)
7. Julie & Julia (5.46)

8. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.86)
9. Crazy Heart (4.00)
10. Invictus (3.05)

Note
The Hurt Locker, Basterds, A Serious Man and Up are locks for Original Screenplay. There are 3 possibilities for that fifth spot: Avatar, 500 Days of Summer and The White Ribbon. My guess is The White Ribbon over Avatar.

The Adapted Screenplay provides one question mark: In the Loop. Is that film too obscure for the Academy? If so, it might get replaced by Crazy Heart (or Fantastic Mr. Fox). My guess is that Loop gets in.

So I expect the Formula to score a splendid 9 out of 10 at the screenplay categories.

So the overall prediction rate will be 38 out of 45 (or 84.4%). Or are my speculations nothing but wishfull thinking? We'll know on February 2. See you then!

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