BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (41.86!)
2. (2.) The King's Speech (17.66)
3. (3.) Black Swan (15.71)
4. (4.) The Fighter (13.78)
5. (5.) The Kids Are All Right (12.27)

6. (6.) Inception (6.29)
7. (7.) Winter's Bone (5.05)
8. (-.) True Grit (2.93)
9. (8.) 127 Hours (2.25)
10. (10.) The Town (1.83)

11. (--.) Toy Story 3 (1.72)
12. (11.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
13. (12.) Get Low (0.84)

New events since previous edition:
Chicago Film Critics Winners
Online Film Critics Nominations
Academy's List of Eligible films
(Carlos, Mother, Of Gods and Men, A Prophet, Lourdes are ineligible)

Contenders in italic are locks.
Here are the CALCULATIONS (in excell)

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (35.99)
2. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (12.94)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (11.72)
4. (4.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (9.15)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (7.00)

6. (6.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (4.11)
7. (8.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (2.04)
8. (9.) Debra Granik, Winter's Bone (1.35)
9. (10.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
10. (11.) Luca Guadagnino, I Am Love (0.75)

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (21.99)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (12.55)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (11.05)
4. (4.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (8.33)
5. (4.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (6.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5.33)

7. (7.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)
8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

Best Actress

1. (1.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (16.88)
2. (3.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (14.27)
3. (2.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (13.41)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (10.44)
5. (5.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)

6. (6.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
7. (7.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (3.97)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)

9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.89)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)

The race for that fifth spot is still wide open...

Supporting Actor

1. (1.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (16.77)
2. (2.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (15.27)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
-. (4.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (9.33)
5. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (7.83)

6. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (7.44)

7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
8. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

It's Garfield vs Hawkes in a very close race...

Supporting Actress

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (16.77)
2. (2.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (12.05)
3. (3.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (11.55)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (9.33)
-. (5.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (9.33)

6. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (8.33)

7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Carter vs Kunis vs Steinfeld. Who will be left out?

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (1.) The King's Speech (11.65)
2. (3.) Inception (9.89)
3. (2.) The Kids Are All Right (9.84)
4. (4.) Black Swan (4.56)
5. (5.) Buried (3.00)

6. (7.) Four Lions (2.61)
7. (7.) I Am Love (2.41)
8. (9.) Biutiful (2.26)
9. (10.) Of Gods and Men (1.15)
-. (10.) Mother (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (27.41)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (6.38)
3. (4.) Winter's Bone (5.67)
4. (3.) Toy Story 3 (5.26)
5. (5.) True Grit (3.86)

6. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2.26)
7. (9.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2.11)
8. (7.) The Town (2.05)
9. (8.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
10. (9.) Fair Game (1.00)
--. (9.) Rabbit Hole (1.00)

BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (39.19!)
2. (2.) The King's Speech (17.66)
3. (4.) Black Swan (14.36)
4. (3.) The Fighter (13.78)
5. (5.) The Kids Are All Right (12.27)

6. (6.) Inception (5.20)
7. (7.) Winter's Bone (4.30)
8. (9.) 127 Hours (2.25)
9. (8.) Carlos (2.10)
10. (10.) The Town (1.83)

11. (11.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
12. (12.) Get Low (0.84)
13. (13.) Red (0.80)

Notes
New awards since previous edition:
* Chicago Film Critics Nominations
* Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Winners
* Satellite Awards
* Florida Film Critics Awards

The italic contenders are locks (which means: by the end of the experiment the formula will predict them as nominees).

Do it yourself
I love doing the calculations (it makes me feel like I'm working at Price Waterhouse, counting ballots), but sometimes I'm too lazy to put them up here. That's why I invite you to do this experiment yourself. Don't worry, it's easy!

Here are the Calculations
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here is what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association: the best picture winner receives 1.5 points instead of his previous Chicago nomination point (which was 1 point). The best screenplay winners receive 0.8 points extra in the best picture category. The winning Foreign Language Film receives 0.8 points.

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point extra in column B, C and D.

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (33.47)
2. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (12.94)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (10.61)
4. (4.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (9.15)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (7.00)

6. (7.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (3.16)
7. (6.) Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
8. (8.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (1.53)
9. (10.) Debra Granik, Winter's Bone (1.35)
10. (9.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

Do it yourself
Here are the Calculations
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here is what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association: the best director winner receives 1.5 points instead of his previous Chicago nomination point (which was 1 point). The directors of the best screenplay winners receive 0.8 points extra. The director of the winning Foreign Language Film receives 0.8 points.

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point.

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (20.38)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (11.44)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (9.94)
4. (6.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (7.22)
5. (3.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (7.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (4.22)
7. (5.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)

8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

Note
In the acting categories, there are only three remaining points left. So mathematically Gosling and Wahlberg still have a shot to beat Duvall and Bridges, although their chances are quiet slim...
(That 'three points left rule' also aplies to the other acting categories, so you can calculate yourself who still has a chance, and who's out)

Best Actress

1. (2.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (15.27)
2. (1.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (12.30)
3. (2.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (12.05)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (9.33)
5. (7.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)

6. (5.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
7. (6.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (3.97)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)

9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.47)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)

Supporting Actor

1. (2.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (15.16)
2. (1.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (14.16)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
4. (4.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (8.22)
5. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (6.72)

6. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (6.33)
7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)

8. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

Supporting Actress

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (15.66)
2. (2.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (10.94)
3. (2.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (10.44)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (9.33)
5. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (8.22)

6. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (6.72)

7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Do it yourself
Here are the Calculations
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here's what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association: winners receive 1.5 points instead of their previous Chicago nomination points (which was 1 point). Winners of the best promising actor and/or actress receive 1 point extra if they are also nominated in the regular best acting categories (actor/actress, leading/supporting).

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point.

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (1.) The King's Speech (10.89)
2. (2.) The Kids Are All Right (8.73)
3. (3.) Inception (7.93)
4. (-.) Black Swan (3.10)
5. (5.) Buried (3.00)

6. (7.) Four Lions (2.61)
7. (6.) Carlos (2.41)
7. (8.) I Am Love (2.41)
9. (11.) Biutiful (2.26)
10. (8.) Of Gods and Men (1.15)
--. (8.) Mother (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (25.45)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (5.27)
3. (-.) Toy Story 3 (4.91)
4. (3.) Winter's Bone (4.21)
5. (-.) True Grit (2.40)

6. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2.26)
7. (4.) The Town (2.05)
8. (5.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
9. (6.) Fair Game (1.00)
-. (-.) Rabbit Hole (1.00)
-. (6.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

Note
In the previous editions I had Toy Story 3 in the original screenplay category, which was a mistake. Sequals are always based on material previously produced or published, so they are always 'adapted screenplays'. If you see mistakes like that, always feel free to point them out to me.

Do it yourself
Here are the Calculations.
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here's what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association Awards: the winners get 1.5 points instead of their previous Chicago nomination points (which was 1 point). In the screenplay category, the winning Foreign Language Film receive 0.8 points.

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point.

BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (30.85!)
2. (2.) The King's Speech (15.49)
3. (4.) The Fighter (13.45)
4. (5.) Black Swan (12.68)
5. (6.) The Kids Are All Right (11.94)

6. (2.) Inception (3.78)
7. (9.) Winter's Bone (3.22)
8. (7.) Carlos (2.10)
9. (8.) 127 Hours (1.92)
10. (11.) The Town (1.50)

11. (10.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
12. (15.) Get Low (0.84)
13. (12.) Red (0.80)

Playtime is over
The experiment is updated with the nominations from the Screen Actors Guild and the winners from the San Diego Film Critics. And by now it's getting interesting!

The contenders in italic are locks. Which means this: by the end of this experiment, the Formula will predict those contenders as nominees. The Formula can make wrong predictions, but is right most of the time...

We all ready have six locks in the best picture race, and four locks in the best actor and best actress race. But the fight for the remaining slots seem more fun and exciting than last year.

Have a look.

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (25.90)
2. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (10.92)
3. (6.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (9.50)
4. (5.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (9.15)
5. (9.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (7.00)

6. (3.) Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
7. (4.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (2.22)
8. (6.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (1.53)
9. (8.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
10. (11.) Debra Granik, Winter's Bone (0.67)

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (17.16)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (10.33)
3. (9.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)
-. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (7.22)
5. (5.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)

Still in the running:
6. (-.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (4.00)
7. (5.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (3.11)

The race is over for:
8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)

Oscar Winners who can still sneak in*:
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

* Oscar Winners have a bigger chance to sneak into the top 5, since they can profit from the Meryl Streep Rule

Best Actress

1. (3.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (11.19)
2. (1.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (10.94)
-. (4.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (10.94)
4. (1.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (9.33)
5. (-.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)

Still in the running:
6. (9.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (3.97)
7. (5.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (3.11)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)

The race is over (unfortunatley):
9. (6.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.47)
10. (11.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)

Oscarwinners who still can sneak in:
11. (9.) Helen Mirren, The Tempest (1.00) (if eligible?)
--. (9.) Tilda Swinton, I Am Love (1.00)

Supporting Actor

1. (1.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (13.05)
2. (2.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (10.33)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
4. (5.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (7.11)
5. (-.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (5.61)

Still in the running:
6. (4.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (5.22)
7. (6.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)

Oscar winners who can still sneak in:
8. (7.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (7.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

The race is over for:
8. (7.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)

Supporting Actress

1. (2.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (11.33)
2. (3.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (9.33)
-. (1.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (9.33)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (8.22)
-. (5.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (8.22)

With a little bit of luck:
6. (7.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (5.61)

The race is over for:
7. (5.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (1.) The King's Speech (8.58)
2. (2.) The Kids Are All Right (7.27)
3. (3.) Inception (4.51)
4. (4.) Toy Story 3 (3.10)
5. (5.) Buried (3.00)

6. (6.) Carlos (2.41)
7. (-.) Four Lions (1,50)
8. (-.) I Am Love
-. (7.) Mother (1.15)
-. (7.) Of Gods and Men (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (19.22)
2. (2.) 127 Hours (4.92)
3. (3.) Winter's Bone (2.40)
4. (4.) The Town (1.70)
5. (5.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

6. (6.) Fair Game (1.00)
-. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. (6.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

BEST PICTURE

1. The Social Network (10.44) - Lock!
2. Inception (3.78)
-. The King's Speech (3.78)
4. The Fighter (2.94)
5. Black Swan (2.61)

6. The Kids Are All Right (2.14)
7. Carlos (2.10)
8. 127 Hours (1.48)
9. Winter's Bone (1.39)
10. The Ghost Writer (1.35)

11. The Town (1.06)
12. Red (0.80)

(The Globe nominations are out! Here's the result for the experiment)

Best Director

1. David Fincher, The Social Network (10.18) - Lock!
2. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (2.92)
3. Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
4. Christopher Nolan, Inception (2.22)
5. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (2.09)

6. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (1.31)
-. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (1.31)
8. Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
9. David O. Russell, The Fighter (1.11)
10. Bong Joon-Ho, Mother (0.67)

Best Actor

1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech (10.94) - Lock!
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (6.22)
3. James Franco, 127 Hours (3.11)
-. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (3.11)

5. Edgar Ramirez, Carlos (2.00)
-. Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (2.00)
7. Ewan McGregor, The Ghost Writer (1.50)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
-. Robert Duvall, Get Low (1.00)

(I'm surprised that Robert Duvall and Javier Bardem are doing so bad)

Best Actress

1. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (5.22)
-. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (5.22)
3. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (4.97)
4. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (4.72)
5. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (3.11)

6. Kim Hye-Ja, Mother (3.00)
-. Lesley Manville, Another Year (3.00)
8. Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)
9. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (1.86)
10. Sylvie Testud, Lourdes (1.50)

(No locks here)

Supporting Actor

1. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (8.94) - Lock!
2. Christian Bale, The Fighter (6.22) - Lock!
3. Jeremy Renner, The Town (5.22)
4. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (3.11)
5. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (3.00)

6. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
7. Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (1.00)
-. Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (1.00)
-. Sean Penn, Fair Game (1.00)

Supporting Actress

1. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (9.33) - Lock!
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (7.22) - Lock!
3. Amy Adams, The Fighter (5.22)
4. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (4.11)

5. Mila Kunis, Black Swan (2.00)
-. Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (2.00)
7. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (1.50)
8. Marion Cotillard, Inception (1.00)
-. Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (1.00)
-. Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (1.00)
-. Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (1.00)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The King's Speech (8.23) - lock!
2. The Kids Are All Right (6.92)
3. Inception (4.51)
4. Toy Story 3 (3.10)
5. Buried (3.00)

6. Carlos (2.41)
7. Mother (1.15)
-. Of Gods and Men (1.15)
9. Biutiful (1.00)
-. The Eclipse (1.00)
-. Get Low (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. The Social Network (17.26) - lock!
2. 127 Hours (4.92)
3. Winter's Bone (2.05)
4. The Town (1.70)
5. The Ghost Writer (1.35)

6. Fair Game (1.00)
-. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

BEST PICTURE

1. The Social Network (8.87)
2. Carlos (2.10)
3. Inception (1.39)
-. The King's Speech (1.39)
-. Winter's Bone (1.39)

6. The Ghost Writer (1.35)
7. The Kids Are All Right (1.07)
8. 127 Hours (1.06)
-. The Town (1.06)


10. Animal Kingdom (0.40)
--. Blue Valentine (0.40)
--. Get Low (0.40)

New Awards
This is a new update of the rankings of the experiment with the winners from LAFCA, NYFCC, the Southeastern Film Critics and the Top 10 from the BFCA.

At this stage we had three Top Tens: from NBR, Southeastern Film Critics and BFCA. Seven films were on all three of them: The Social Network, Inception, The King's Speech, Winter's Bone, The Fighter, Toy Story 3 and True Grit. Will these seven films be nominated for best picture? It's very likely at this point.

Best Director

1. David Fincher, The Social Network (8.35)
2. Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
3. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (1.18)
4. Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
5. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (1.10)

6. Bong Joon-Ho, Mother (0.67)
7. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (0.40)
-. David Michod, Animal Kingdom (0.40)
-. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (0.40)
-. Christopher Nolan, Inception (0.40)
-. Ben Affleck, The Town (0.40)
-. Debra Granik, The Winter's Bone (0.40)

Best Actor

1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech (8.83)
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (4.11)
3. Edgar Ramirez, Carlos (2.00)
4. Ewan McGregor, The Ghost Writer (1.50)

5. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
-. Robert Duvall, Get Low (1.00)
-. James Franco, 127 Hours (1.00)
-. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (1.00)

Best Actress

1. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (4.11)
2. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (3.11)
3. Kim Hye-Ja, Mother (3.00)
-. Lesley Manville, Another Year (3.00)
5. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (2.61)

6. Sylvie Testud, Lourdes (1.50)
-. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (1.00)
-. Helen Mirren, The Tempest (1.00)
-. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (1.00)
-. Noomi Rapace, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Tilda Swinton, I Am Love (1.00)
-. Naomi Watts, Fair Game (1.00)
-. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (1.00)

Supporting Actor

1. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (6.83)
2. Christian Bale, The Fighter (4.11)
3. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (3.00)

4. Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (1.00)
-. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (1.00)
-. Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (1.00)
-. Sean Penn, Fair Game (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Town (1.00)

Supporting Actress

1. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (7.22)
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (3.00)
3. Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (2.00)
4. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (1.50)

5. Amy Adams, The Fighter (1.00)
-. Marion Cotillard, Inception (1.00)
-. Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (1.00)
-. Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (1.00)
-. Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (1.00)

About the acting categories:
The only lock so far is Colin Firth (and probably Geoffrey Rush). But we'll have many more lock tomorow, after the Golden Globe nominations! Stay tuned!

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The King's Speech (5.77)
2. The Kids Are All Right (4.46)
3. Toy Story 3 (3.10)
4. Buried (3.00)
5. Carlos (2.41)

6. Inception (2.05)
7. Mother (1.15)
-. Of Gods and Men (1.15)
9. Biutiful (1.00)
-. The Eclipse (1.00)
-. Get Low (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. The Social Network (14.80)
2. Winter's Bone (2.05)
3. 127 Hours (1.70)
-. The Town (1.70)
5. The Ghost Writer (1.35)

6. Fair Game (1.00)
-. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

Look at those top five adapted screenplays! Wouldn't it be cool if those were the final nominees?

BEST PICTURE

The Experiment has begun!!!

Thanks to the Satellite Nominations and winners from the European Film Awards and the National Board of Review we have our first standings. So with no further ado... Let's take a look!

1. The Social Network (2.91)
2. The Ghost Writer (1.35)
3. Inception (0.73)
-. The King's Speech (0.73)
-. The Town (0.73)
-. Winter's Bone (0.73)

7. 127 Hours (0.40)
-. Animal Kingdom (0.40)
-. Blue Valentine (0.40)
-. Get Low (0.40)
-. The Kids Are All Right (0.40)

How to read this
First things first, for everyone new here, the experiment is no buzz-o-meter. It's more like an award-meter: if you win awards you receive points. Some critics say that this is the experiment's biggest weakness, but if you look at its prediction power, I'd call it its strength!

The Social Network received points because it won the NBR and received a Satellite nomination, The Ghost Writer won the EFA, while Inception, The King's Speech, The Town and Winter's Bone are the only films in the NBR Top 10 to be nominated for the Best Picture Satellite.

You can download the calculations (in excell) HERE!

Exactly one year ago, the future Oscar Winner was all ready on this list! (But so was Bright Star)

(Next sunday the Award Season starts for real, when in just a couple of days the real big guns like the Los Angeles Film Critics, the New York Film Critics and the Golden Globes all hand out awards, runners-up or nominations.)

Best Director

1. David Fincher, The Social Network (3.19)
2. Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

3. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (0.40)
-. David Michod, Animal Kingdom (0.40)
-. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (0.40)
-. Christopher Nolan, Inception (0.40)
-. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (0.40)
-. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (0.40)
-. Ben Affleck, The Town (0.40)
-. Debra Granik, The Winter's Bone (0.40)

How to read this
This doesn't mean that Fincher and Polanski are surefire nominees just yet. In the Best Picture and Best Director race, you need at least a nomination from the Directors Guild, the Producers Guild or a Screen Actors Ensemble Award!

Best Actor

1. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (4.11)
2. Ewan McGregor, The Ghost Writer (1.50)

3. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
-. Robert Duvall, Get Low (1.00)
-. Colin Firth, The King's Speech (1.00)
-. James Franco, 127 Hours (1.00)
-. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (1.00)

Best Actress

1. Lesley Manville, Another Year (3.00)
2. Sylvie Testud, Lourdes (1.50)

3. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (1.00)
-. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (1.00)
-. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (1.00)
-. Helen Mirren, The Tempest (1.00)
-. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (1.00)
-. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (1.00)
-. Noomi Rapace, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Tilda Swinton, I Am Love (1.00)
-. Naomi Watts, Fair Game (1.00)
-. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (1.00)

How to read this
I have some bad news for all actors and actresses who never received an Oscar nomination before. For them to get an Oscar nomination in the Best Actor or Best Actress category, they need a nomination from the Golden Globe and/or the Screen Actors Guild (a personal nomination, an ensemble nomination is not enough!).

If they fail to get that, their points will be divided by 3.

Pop Quiz: Can you name an actor or actress who scored a first Oscar nomination (in the leading categories) without receiving a Golden Globe nomination, or a Screen Actors Guild nomination first?

Supporting Actor

1. Christian Bale, The Fighter (4.11)

2. Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (1.00)
-. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (1.00)
-. Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (1.00)
-. Sean Penn, Fair Game (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Town (1.00)
-. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (1.00)

Supporting Actress

1. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (4.11)

2. Amy Adams, The Fighter (1.00)
-. Marion Cotillard, Inception (1.00)
-. Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (1.00)
-. Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (1.00)
-. Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (1.00)

How to read this
In the supporting categories the influences of the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild are even more powerfull. It doens't matter how many Oscar nominations you received in the past, if you don't have a nomination from the Globes or SAG, you're points will be divided by 3. (Here an ensemble nomination can be enough. Remember Alan Alda?)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. Buried (3.00)
2. Toy Story 3 (1.70)
3. Inception (1.35)
-. The King's Speech (1.35)
5. Of Gods and Men (1.15)

6. Biutiful (1.00)
-. The Eclipse (1.00)
-. Get Low (1.00)
-. The Kids Are All Right (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. The Social Network (6.57)
2. The Ghost Writer (1.35)
-. The Town (1.35)
-. Winter's Bone (1.35)

5. 127 Hours (1.00)
-. Fair Game (1.00)
-. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

How to read this
It looks like we have a first lock for an Oscar nomination! Since 5 points is usually enough to end up in the final top 5 Screenplays, The Social Network's screenplay is an almost certain Oscar nominee. But we all ready knew that, didn"t we...