Sunday, December 16, 2012

Oscar Experiment 2012-2013

This year, the Oscar noms will be announced before the Globes are handed out, even before we'll know the DGA nominees. So there will be no experiment this year. That's okay. The real Oscar nominations are much more fun than the Experiment's predictions; anyway.

But that shouldn't stop you from seeing how the standing would be today. With the nominations from the Golden Globes and the SAG behind us, the acting races are all ready boiled down to 6 or 7 contenders. So it's very intersting indeed!

FYI, these are the current leader in every category:

Best Picture: Argo
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor (TIE): Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) and Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Best Supporting Actress
: Sally Field, Lincoln
Best Original Screenplay: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo

But that doesn't mean shit. This experiment does NOT predict the winners, only who will be nominated. It's simple: if you're in the top 5 you will be nominated.

Here it is:

BEST PICTURE
1. Argo - 10,18
2. Zero Dark Thirty - 9,37
3. Lincoln - 7,58
4. Silver Linings Playbook - 6,66
5. Les Miserables - 5,57

6. The Master - 3,83
7. Amour - 3,82
8. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel - 3,5
9. Django Unchained - 3,2
10. Beasts of the Southern Wild - 2,8

11. Life of Pi - 2,54
12. Moonrise Kingdom - 2,04

(Note: Unfortunately, the Experiment does not predict how many films will be nominated.)

--------------------------------------------------

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty - 8,238
2. Ben Affleck, Argo - 5,261
3. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln - 4,913
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master - 3,847
5. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook - 3,841


6. Michael Haneke, Amour - 2,162
7. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained - 1,711
8. Tom Hooper, Les Miserables - 1,066
9. John Madden, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel - 0,844
-. Ben Lewin, The Sessions - 0,844

-----------------------------------------------------

BEST ACTOR
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln - 15,16 (LOCKED)
2. Denzel Washington, Flight - 10,44 (LOCKED)
3. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook - 9,08 (LOCKED)
4. John Hawkes, The Sessions - 8,33 (LOCKED)

5. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master - 6,33

Still has a shot:
6. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables - 5,97

Out of the race:
7. Jack Black, Bernie - 2,86
8. Richard Gere, Arbitrage - 2
9. Denis Lavant, Holy Motors - 1,02
10. Ewan McGregor, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen - 0,75
--. Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson - 0,75

-----------------------------------------------------

BEST ACTRESS
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook - 12,3 (LOCKED)
2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty - 11,44 (LOCKED)
3. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock - 8,22
-. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone - 8,22

5. Naomie Watts, The Impossible - 7,22
-. Rachel Weisz, Deep Blue Sea - 7,22


Out of the race:
7. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour - 2,30
8. Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz - 1,5
9. Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina - 1
-. Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson - 1

-----------------------------------------------------

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln - 10,44
-. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master - 10,44
3. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained - 9,94
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained - 8,33
5. Alan Arkin, Argo - 8,22


Still have a shot:
6. Javier Bardem, Skyfall - 7,22
-. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook - 7,22

Out of the race:
8. Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild - 1,32
9. Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables - 1
10. John Goodman, Flight - 0,3
--. Jason Clarke, Zero Dark Thirty - 0,3

-----------------------------------------------------

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Sally Field, Lincoln - 12,44 (LOCKED)

2. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables - 10,44
3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions - 9,44
-. Amy Adams, The Master - 9,44
5. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy - 8,22

Still have a chance:
6. Judi Dench, Skyfall - 4,22
7. Maggie Smith, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel - 4

Out of the race:
8. Samantha Barks, Les Miserables - 1
9. Ann Dowd, Compliance - 0,91
10. Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower - 0,45

-----------------------------------------------------

BEST ORGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Zero Dark Thirty - 10,19 (LOCKED)
2. Amour - 5,22
3. Looper - 4,46
4. The Master - 4,42
5. Django Unchained - 3,46

6. Moonrise Kingdom - 2,81
7. Holy Motors - 1,15
8. Flight - 1
-. The Intouchables - 1

-----------------------------------------------------

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Argo - 10,69 (LOCKED)
2. Silver Linings Playbook - 10,49 (LOCKED)
3. Lincoln - 8,73 (LOCKED)
4. Beasts of the Southern Wild - 2,05
5. Life of Pi - 1,7

6. Anna Karenina - 1
-. The Sessions - 1
-. The Perks of Being a Wallflower - 1

That's it!

You can donwload the Excell pages HERE.

If you want to know how the formula works, read these pages:
  • Best Picture Category

  • Best Director Category

  • The Acting Categories

  • The Writing Category


  • Have a nice award season!

    Tuesday, January 17, 2012

    The Oscar Experiment 2012: The Results

    Well, it's not completely over, but not that much is going to change anymore.

    So here is the (somewhat weird) result of this year's experiment:
    http://oscarsijmen.freehostia.com/11oscpik.htm

    Some weird things:
    * No Hugo for Best Picture (unless there are 8 nominees)
    * Moneyball for best picture and best director
    * Michael Shannon for best actor instead of Leonardo DiCaprio (My guess would be Gary Oldman)
    * Bridesmaids for best original screenplay, and not for best supporting actress.

    Now starts the wait until the Oscar nominations...

    Thanks Richard, Snowweisz and Karol for your input (and showing my mistakes :-)