Monday, December 28, 2009

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (26.20)
2. Inglorious Bastards (13.72)
3. Precious (11.18)
4. Up in the Air (10.54)
5. Nine (9.17)

6. An Education (2.83)
7. Invictus (2.14)
8. 500 Days of Summer (1.32)
9. Julie & Julia (1.24)
10. The White Ribbon (0.94)

11. A Serious Man (0.91)
12. It's Complicated (0.89)
13. The Last Station (0.86)

Note
No big awards, no big changes, but I wanted to end the year with an update. The Academy published the list of eligible films. Since Summer Hours, Seraphine and A Prophet are not on that list, I deleted them from the Formula.

The awards handed out since the last update were the Satellite Awards, and the film critics from Chicago and Florida.

Enjoy!

And a happy new year!

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (22.03)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (11.62)
3. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (7.51)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (6.68)
5. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)

6. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.25)
7. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.94)
8. Lone Scherfig, An Education (1.70)
9. Wes Anderson, Fantastic Mr. Fox (1.58)
10. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (1.31)

Note
There are no locks yet, but Bigelow, Tarantino and Reitman are very strong contenders. I expect Lee Daniels and James Cameron to join them...

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (17.75)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (13.55)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (7.22)


6. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
7. Matt Damon, The Informant (2.34)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
The bold ones are locks! These are the predicted best actor nominations, and it's mathematically impossible for any actor to crack into the top 5.

Best Actress

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (16.77)
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (13.71)
3. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (8.83)
4. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)

5. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (6.11)

6. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)
7. Tilda Swinton, Julia (2.00)
8. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
9. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.50)
10. Sandra Bullock, The Proposal (1.23)

Note
The bold ones are locks. Only Shohreh Aghdashloo and The Proposal's Sandra Bullock are mathematically out...

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (24.10)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (13.55)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)


6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.02)
-. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
9. James McAvoy, The Last Station (0.30)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (0.30)

Note
The bold ones are locks. That's our second fixed category.

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (22.49)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (13.55)
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (11.44)
4. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (9.33)

5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (5.22)

6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (4.00)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.45)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
The bold ones are locks. If I would predict the nominees myself, I would pick Samantha Morton for the fifth spot. But history learned that the Formula is better at this than me, so...

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (12.44) - LOCK! -
2. Inglorious Bastards (7.17)
3. A Serious Man (6.97)
4. 500 Days of Summer (5.77)
5. Up (5.61)

6. Sin Nombre (2.41)
7. It's Complicated (2.35)
8. The White Ribbon (1.50)
9. Broken Embraces (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)
-. The Maid (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (20.83) - LOCK! -
2. In the Loop (6.22)
3. District 9 (4.92)
4. An Education (3.51)
5. Fantastic Mr. Fox (3.25)
-. Precious (3.25)

7. Where the Wild Things Are (1.70)
8. Julie & Julia (1.35)
9. The Informant! (1.00)

Thursday, December 17, 2009

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (24.38) - LOCK! -
2. Inglorious Bastards (13.72) - LOCK! -
3. Precious (10.36) - LOCK! -
4. Up in the Air (9.58) - LOCK! -
5. Nine (8.67) - LOCK! -

6. An Education (2.83)
7. Invictus (2.14)
8. Julie & Julia (1.24)
9. Summer Hours (1.00)
10. A Serious Man (0.91)

11 It's Complicated (0.89)
12. The Last Station (0.86)
13. The Messenger (0.84)

Note
This is an update of Sijmen's Oscar Experiment with the Dallas-Forth Worth Film Critics Winners and the nominations from the Chicago Film Critics and the Screen Actors Guild.

As you'll see, the acting races are over. Best Actress is the only category where something surprising could happen. From now on, the changes will be smaller, and the focus will be on the best picture and best director category, where nothing is for sure yet!

But it's interesting to see that Avatar is not in the Best Picture top 10 anymore. (it's currently at number 14). Not a tragedy yet, but it's not good either...

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (20.12) - LOCK! -
2. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (11.62) - LOCK! -
3. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (6.37)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (5.77)
5. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)

6. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.25)
7. Lone Scherfig, An Education (1.70)
8. Wes Anderson, Fantastic Mr. Fox (1.58)
9. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.51)
10. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (1.31)

Best Actor

LOCKS
1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (16.14)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (13.55)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (6.22)

Thanks for playing, maybe next time

6. Matt Damon, The Informant (2.34)
-. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.34)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
It's over. It's mathematically impossible for any other actor to crack into the top 5.

Best Actress

LOCKS
1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (15.16)
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (13.28)
3. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)
4. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (7.22)

Other players

5. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (6.11) - Strong Contender!
6. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11) - Game Over...
7. Tilda Swinton, Julia (2.00) - Sandra's biggest thread
9. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86) - Still Possible

Game Over
10. Penelope Cruz, Broken Embraces (1.00) - Unless a miracle happens
--. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)


Tilda Swinton and Marion Cotillard are former Oscar winners, so they could profit from the Meryl Streep Rule. They just need one more award or nomination to take Sandra Bullock's fifth spot.

Supporting Actor

LOCKS
1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (21.49)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (13.55)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)

Thanks for playing, maybe next time

6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.02)
-. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
9. James McAvoy, The Last Station (0.30)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (0.30)

Supporting Actress

LOCKS
1. Mo'nique, Precious (19.88)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (13.55)
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (11.44)
4. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (9.33)


Fighting for fifth spot
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (5.22)
6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (4.00)

Thanks for playing, maybe next time
6. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (1.50)
7. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (1.00)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (11.24) - LOCK! -
2. Inglorious Bastards (7.17)
3. A Serious Man (6.62)
4. Up (4.91)
5. Summer Hours (3.67)

6. 500 Days of Summer (3.66)
7. It's Complicated (2.35)
8. A Prophet (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)
-. Sin Nombre (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (19.63) - LOCK! -
2. In the Loop (6.22)
3. District 9 (4.92)
4. An Education (3.51)
5. Fantastic Mr. Fox (2.90)

6. Precious (2.75)
7. Julie & Julia (1.35)
8. The Informant! (1.00)
-. Where the Wild Things Are (1.00)

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (7.46) - LOCK! -
2. Up in the Air (6.88) - LOCK! -
3. Inglorious Bastards (2.18)
4. Invictus (1.26)
5. Precious (1.22)

6. Summer Hours (1.00)
7. It's Complicated (0.89)
8. Avatar (0.80)
-. Julie & Julia (0.80)
10. An Education (0.73)

11. Nine (0.72)
12. Fantastic Mr. Fox (0.65)
13. 500 Days of Summer (0.64)

Note
This is an update with lots of new awards: most notably the nominations from the Golden Globes, but also the runners-up from the New York Film Critics Circle, the winners from the San Diego and the Southeastern Film Critics.

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (6.95)
2. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (4.05)
3. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (2.81)
4. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (2.42)
5. Wes Anderson, Fantastic Mr. Fox (1.58)

6. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.51)
7. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (1.31)
8. Olivier Assayas, Summer Hours (1.18)
9. James Cameron, Avatar (0.80)
-. Nancy Meyers, It's Complicated (0.80)

Note
It's too soon to talk about locks, but this top 10 shows where this race is going...

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (9.31) - LOCK!
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (8.33) - LOCK!
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (7.22) - LOCK!
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (6.83) - LOCK!
5. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)

6. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)
7. Tahar Rahim, A Prophet (1.50)
8. Matt Damon, The Informant (1.23)
-. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (1.23)
10. Hugh Dancy, Adam (1.00)
-. Johnny Depp, Public Enemies (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Michael Sheen, The Damned United (1.00)

Note
Clooney, Bridges, Freeman and Firth can sleep on both ears, they are in. Who will fill that last remaining spot? I expect a too close to call race betweeen Daniel Day-Lewis, Jeremy Renner and Michael Stuhlbarg. Or will Tobey Maguire conquer them all?

Best Actress

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (8.33) - LOCK! -
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (8.06) - LOCK! -
3. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)
4. Yolande Moreau, Séraphine (3.00)

5. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (2.00)
-. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (2.00)
-. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (2.00)
-. Tilda Swinton, Julia (2.00)
9. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
10. Michelle Monaghan, Trucker (1.50)

Note
Emily Blunt at number three??? In this stage of the race??? Who would have expected that?! Anyway, thanks to her runnerup position at the NYFCC, Tilda Swinton has a good shot at a place in the final top 5, which I'm pretty excited about!

While the best actor race is a closed case, this race is still wide open. I'm curious to see the Screen Actors choices tomorrow. Will they bring Abbie Cornish back to life?

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (12.55) - LOCK! -
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (8.33) - LOCK! -
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (4.11)

4. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (2.00)
-. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (2.00)
-. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (2.00)
-. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (2.00)
8. James McAvoy, The Last Station (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (1.00)

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (10.94) - LOCK!
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (8.33) - LOCK
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (5.22)
4. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (4.22)
-. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (4.22)

6. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (1.50)
7. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (1.00)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (9.43) - LOCK! -
2. Inglorious Bastards (5.36)
3. A Serious Man (5.16)
4. In the Loop (5.11)
5. Summer Hours (3.67)

6. 500 Days of Summer (3.66)
7. Up (3.10)
8. It's Complicated (2.35)
9. A Prophet (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (16.56) - LOCK! -
2. District 9 (4.57)
3. Fantastic Mr. Fox (2.55)
4. Precious (2.05)
5. An Education (1.70)

6. Julie & Julia (1.00)

Monday, December 14, 2009

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (5.40) - LOCK! -
2. Up in the Air (3.53) - LOCK! -
3. Invictus (1.26)
4. An Education (0.73)
5. Summer Hours (0.66)
6. The White Ribbon (0.60)
7. A Serious Man (0.49)
8. Julie & Julia (0.48)

9. Bright Star (0.40)
-. Nine (0.40)
-. Precious (0.40)
-. The Messenger (0.40)
-. The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.40)

Note
Here's an update with the winners from the New York Film Critics Circle (without the runners-up, which I don't have at this time).

In a normal year, you don't have Best Picture locks this early in the game. But now that there are 10 Best Picture nominees, I expect that once you have 4 points, you're a sure thing. After just three awards, both The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air are all ready there.

I'm not wondering where Nine is (didn't see it, I'm just not interested), but if you are, I have good news: I expect it to be back with a vengeance when the Golden Globe nominations are announced tomorrow. So stay tuned!

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (4.42)
2. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (1.90)
3. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (1.80)
4. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.51)
5. Olivier Assayas, Summer Hours (0.751)

6. Lone Scherfig, An Education (0.75)
7. Jane Campion, Bright Star (0.40)
-. Lee Daniels, Precious (0.40)
-. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (0.40)
-. Rob Marshall, Nine (0.40)

Note
Olivier Assayas??? I expected The White Ribbon to sweep the foreign film awards...

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (5.59) - LOCK! -
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (4.11)
3. Colin Firth, A Single Man (3.11)
4. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (3.00)

5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.00)
-. Hugh Dancy, Adam (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Lofcker (1.00)
-. Johnny Depp, Public Enemies (1.00)
-. Michael Sheen, The Damned United (1.00)

Note
George Clooney won the best actor trophy from the NYFCC, but received no points for it since it was for two films (Up in the Air and Fantastic Mr. Fox). See the Julianne Moore Rule.

Best Actress

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (6.22)
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (5.59)
3. Yolande Moreau, Séraphine (3.00)

4. Abbie Cornish, Bright Star (1.00)
-. Catalina Saavedra, The Maid (1.00)
-. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (1.00)
-. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.00)
-. Penelope Cruz, Broken Embraces (1.00)
-. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds (7.22)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (4.11)
3. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (2.00)

4. James McAvoy, The Last Station (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (1.00)

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (7.22)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (6.22)
3. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (1.00)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)
-. Penelope Cruz, Nine (1.00)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (6.62) - LOCK! -
2. In the Loop (5.11)
3. A Serious Man (4.81)
4. Summer Hours (2.41)
5. Up (2.05)

6. 500 Days of Summer (1.35)
7. A Prophet (1.15)
8. Bright Star (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (10.03) - LOCK! -
2. An Education (1.70)
3. Precious (1.35)
4. District 9 (1.00)
-. Julie & Julia (1.00)

BEST PICTURE

1. Up in the Air (3.53) - LOCK! -
2. The Hurt Locker (2.90)
3. Invictus (1.26)
4. An Education (0.73)
5. The White Ribbon (0.60)
6. A Serious Man (0.49)

7. Bright Star (0.40)
-. Nine (0.40)
-. Precious (0.40)
-. The Messenger (0.40)
-. The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.40)

Note
These are the new rankings of the Experiment after this weekend's awards from the European Film Academy and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association.

Note that there are only three locks for now, and all three are for the same film: Up in the Air for best picture, best actor and best screenplay.

Most of you know that the coming days are the most important of award season with winners from New York Film Critics (12/14), Golden Globe Nominations (12/15) and the Screen Actors Guild (12/17).

By the end of the week, we have much more locks. And... we'll have the first game overs.

I can't wait!

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (2.41)
2. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (1.90)
3. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.51)
4. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (1.45)
5. Lone Scherfig, An Education (0.75)

6. Jane Campion, Bright Star (0.40)
-. Lee Daniels, Precious (0.40)
-. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (0.40)
-. Rob Marshall, Nine (0.40)
10. Olivier Assayas, Summer Hours (0.32)
--. Jacques Audiard, A Prophet (0.32)
--. Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man (0.32)

Note
That's a pretty cool Top 5. Could these be the five nominations? That Michael Haneke is doing well, might be a surprise to some, but I expected him to do better. He still has to win his first critic's award for best foreign film.

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (5.59) - LOCK! -
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (4.11)
3. Colin Firth, A Single Man (3.11)
4. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (3.00)

5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.00)
-. Hugh Dancy, Adam (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Lofcker (1.00)
-. Johnny Depp, Public Enemies (1.00)
-. Michael Sheen, The Damned United (1.00)

Note:
Only one lock now, but that will change once the nominations are announced for the Golden Globes (12/15) and the Screen Actors Guild (12/17). At the end of this week we'll have four of the five nominees in all the acting categories!

Best Actress

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (6.22)
2. Yolande Moreau, Séraphine (3.00)

3. Abbie Cornish, Bright Star (1.00)
-. Catalina Saavedra, The Maid (1.00)
-. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (1.00)
-. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.00)
-. Penelope Cruz, Broken Embraces (1.00)
-. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)

Note
Congratulations to Mrs. Moreau for winning the LAFCA Best Actress Award, but - since she was never before nominated for an Oscar - she needs a nomination from the Golden Globes or the Screen Actors Guild to stay in the running. (This is also true for Carey Mulligan, Abbie Cornish, Catalina Saavedra and Emily Blunt.)

Supporting Actor

1. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (4.11)
-. Christopher Waltz, Inglourious Basterds (4.11)
3. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (2.00)

4. James McAvoy, The Last Station (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (1.00)

Supporting Actress

1. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (6.22)
2. Mo'nique, Precious (4.11)
3. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (1.00)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)
-. Penelope Cruz, Nine (1.00)

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. A Serious Man (4.46)
2. The Hurt Locker (3.81)
3. In the Loop (2.00)
4. Up (1.70)
5. 500 Days of Summer (1.35)

6. A Prophet (1.15)
-. Summer Hours (1.15)
8. Bright Star (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (9.69) - LOCK! -
2. An Education (1.35)
3. District 9 (1.00)
-. Julie & Julia (1.00)
-. Precious (1.00)

Thursday, December 3, 2009

BEST PICTURE

1. Up in the Air (2.37)
2. Invictus (1.26)
3. An Education (0.73)
4. A Serious Man (0.49)

5. Bright Star (0.40)
-. Nine (0.40)
-. Precious (0.40)
-. The Hurt Locker (0.40)
-. The Messenger (0.40)
-. The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.40)

How to read this
Up in the Air might have scored the first award of the season, but mathematically it doens't mean a thing. Yet.

Best Director

1. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (1.90)
2. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (1.37)
3. Lone Scherfig, An Education (0.75)

4. Jane Campion, Bright Star (0.40)
-. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (0.40)
-. Lee Daniels, Precious (0.40)
-. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (0.40)
-. Rob Marshall, Nine (0.40)
9. Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man (0.32)
-. Jacques Audiard, A Prophet (0.32)

How to read this
As in the best picture category: this means nothing yet.

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (5.56)
2. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (3.00)
3. Colin Firth, A Single Man (1.00)
-. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.00)
-. Hugh Dancy, Adam (1.00)
-. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Lofcker (1.00)
-. Johnny Depp, Public Enemies (1.00)
-. Michael Sheen, The Damned United (1.00)

How to read this
Oscarwinner George Clooney is the first to profit from the Meryl Streep Rule. And Freeman will soon follow. This means that there are only three spots left. Let the cat fight begin (and oh yes, there will be blood)!

Best Actress

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (4.11)
2. Abbie Cornish, Bright Star (1.00)
-. Catalina Saavedra, The Maid (1.00)
-. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (1.00)
-. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.00)
-. Penelope Cruz, Broken Embraces (1.00)
-. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)

How to read this
Don't cry victory yet, Mrs. Mulligan! You need a nomination from the Golden Globes or the Screen Actors Guild to stay in the race (which seems likely at this point)

Supporting Actor

1. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (4.11)
2. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
-. Christopher Waltz, Inglourious Basterds (1.00)
-. James McAvoy, The Last Station (1.00)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (1.00)

How to read this
The same to you, Mr. Harrelson: no Globe (or SAG), no glory!

Supporting Actress

1. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (4.11)
2. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (1.00)
-. Mo'nique, Precious (1.00)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)
-. Penelope Cruz, Nine (1.00)

How to read this
That Anna Kendrick will be nominated at the Globes and/or the Sag seems likely, so I would count her in. Four spots left.

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. A Serious Man (4.46)
2. Up (1.70)
3. 500 Days of Summer (1.35)
-. The Hurt Locker (1.35)
5. A Prophet (1.15)

6. Bright Star (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (6.22)
2. An Education (1.35)
3. District 9 (1.00)
-. Julie & Julia (1.00)
-. Precious (1.00)

How to read this
Up in the Air is probably in. To the others: no worries, anything can still happen... (but wouldn't it be fun if the current top original screenplays would be the actual Oscar nominees?)

Sunday, November 29, 2009

BEST PICTURE

1. An Education (0.40)
-. Bright Star (0.40)
-. Nine (0.40)
-. Precious (0.40)
-. The Hurt Locker (0.40)
-. The Messenger (0.40)
-. The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.40)

What is this?
This is the start of Sijmen's Oscar Experiment 2009-2010! I found myself a secret weapon to predict the Oscar nominees: a mathematical and statistical Formula, based on the relation between the Pre-Oscar Awards and the Oscarnominees in the last 13 years. And now the first award is in: the nominations from the Satellite Awards.

How to read this
What does this all mean at this point? Nothing. Anything can happen!

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, Bright Star (0.40)
-. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (0.40)
-. Lee Daniels, Precious (0.40)
-. Lone Scherfig, An Education (0.40)
-. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (0.40)
-. Rob Marshall, Nine (0.40)

How to read this
As in the best picture category: this means nothing. Yet.

Best Actor

1. Colin Firth, A Single Man (1.00)
-. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.00)
-. Hugh Dancy, Adam (1.00)
-. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Lofcker (1.00)
-. Johnny Depp, Public Enemies (1.00)
-. Michael Sheen, The Damned United (1.00)

How to read this
Leading actors who were Oscar nominated in the past, can end up in the final Top 10 with only 1 point. This happend two years ago with Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah). He received only 1 point (thanks to a nomination from the Satellites), and ended up being Oscar nominated. That's great news for Daniel Day-Lewis, Jeff Bridges and Johnny Depp.

Daniel Day-Lewis has even more reasons to party. As a former Oscar Winner he needs only one more point to profit from the Mery Streep Rule. If that happens, Day-Lewis will certainly end up in the final Top 10, even the final Top 5 is possible.

Best Actress

1. Abbie Cornish, Bright Star (1.00)
-. Carey Mulligan, An Education (1.00)
-. Catalina Saavedra, The Maid (1.00)
-. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (1.00)
-. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.00)
-. Penelope Cruz, Broken Embraces (1.00)
-. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)

How to read this
Very good news for previous Oscar winners Marion Cotillard and Penelope Cruz (see the Meryl Sreep Rule)

Previous nominated Shohreh Aghdashloo will probably end up in the final Top 10 now.

PS: From now on, Marion Cotillard's Nine performance will only receive points if it's nominated in the leading category (see the Kate Winslet Rule)

Supporting Actor

1. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
-. Christopher Waltz, Inglourious Basterds (1.00)
-. James McAvoy, The Last Station (1.00)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (1.00)
-. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (1.00)

How to read this:
In the supporting categories, an actor can end up in the final Top 10, if he's nominated for the Best Ensemble Award from the Screen Actors Guild (as happend last year with Kevin Bacon (Frost/Nixon) and James Franco (Milk)).

But which of these films will be nominated for the SAG Best Ensemble Award? Inglorious Basterds maybe? It's hard to predict...

Supporting Actress

1. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (1.00)
-. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (1.00)
-. Mo'nique, Precious (1.00)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)
-. Penelope Cruz, Nine (1.00)

How to read this
Penelope Cruz is the only Oscar Winner in this lineup, so she has the biggest chance to end up in the final Top 5 (see the Meryl Streep Rule).

I think Nine, Precious and Up in the Air are likely to get receive a SAG Best Ensemble nomination. So, besides Penelope, this has been a good day for Mo'nique and Anna Kendrick.

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. 500 Days of Summer (1.00)
-. A Serious Man (1.00)
-. Bright Star (1.00)
-. The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Up (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. An Education (1.00)
-. District 9 (1.00)
-. Julie & Julia (1.00)
-. Precious (1.00)
-. Up in the Air (1.00)

How to read this
Anything can still happen...

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

New URL

The legendary geocities is gone.

So the legendary Sijmen's Oscar Experiment has moved!

New url is http://oscarsijmen.freehostia.com/

Take a look!

See you all on december 3, with the award winners from the National Board of Review!