1. The Hurt Locker (5.40) - LOCK! -
2. Up in the Air (3.53) - LOCK! -
3. Invictus (1.26)
4. An Education (0.73)
5. Summer Hours (0.66)
6. The White Ribbon (0.60)
7. A Serious Man (0.49)
8. Julie & Julia (0.48)
9. Bright Star (0.40)
-. Nine (0.40)
-. Precious (0.40)
-. The Messenger (0.40)
-. The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.40)
Here's an update with the winners from the New York Film Critics Circle (without the runners-up, which I don't have at this time).
In a normal year, you don't have Best Picture locks this early in the game. But now that there are 10 Best Picture nominees, I expect that once you have 4 points, you're a sure thing. After just three awards, both The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air are all ready there.
I'm not wondering where Nine is (didn't see it, I'm just not interested), but if you are, I have good news: I expect it to be back with a vengeance when the Golden Globe nominations are announced tomorrow. So stay tuned!