Sunday, November 29, 2009


1. An Education (0.40)
-. Bright Star (0.40)
-. Nine (0.40)
-. Precious (0.40)
-. The Hurt Locker (0.40)
-. The Messenger (0.40)
-. The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.40)

What is this?
This is the start of Sijmen's Oscar Experiment 2009-2010! I found myself a secret weapon to predict the Oscar nominees: a mathematical and statistical Formula, based on the relation between the Pre-Oscar Awards and the Oscarnominees in the last 13 years. And now the first award is in: the nominations from the Satellite Awards.

How to read this
What does this all mean at this point? Nothing. Anything can happen!

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, Bright Star (0.40)
-. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (0.40)
-. Lee Daniels, Precious (0.40)
-. Lone Scherfig, An Education (0.40)
-. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (0.40)
-. Rob Marshall, Nine (0.40)

How to read this
As in the best picture category: this means nothing. Yet.

Best Actor

1. Colin Firth, A Single Man (1.00)
-. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.00)
-. Hugh Dancy, Adam (1.00)
-. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Lofcker (1.00)
-. Johnny Depp, Public Enemies (1.00)
-. Michael Sheen, The Damned United (1.00)

How to read this
Leading actors who were Oscar nominated in the past, can end up in the final Top 10 with only 1 point. This happend two years ago with Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah). He received only 1 point (thanks to a nomination from the Satellites), and ended up being Oscar nominated. That's great news for Daniel Day-Lewis, Jeff Bridges and Johnny Depp.

Daniel Day-Lewis has even more reasons to party. As a former Oscar Winner he needs only one more point to profit from the Mery Streep Rule. If that happens, Day-Lewis will certainly end up in the final Top 10, even the final Top 5 is possible.

Best Actress

1. Abbie Cornish, Bright Star (1.00)
-. Carey Mulligan, An Education (1.00)
-. Catalina Saavedra, The Maid (1.00)
-. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (1.00)
-. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.00)
-. Penelope Cruz, Broken Embraces (1.00)
-. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)

How to read this
Very good news for previous Oscar winners Marion Cotillard and Penelope Cruz (see the Meryl Sreep Rule)

Previous nominated Shohreh Aghdashloo will probably end up in the final Top 10 now.

PS: From now on, Marion Cotillard's Nine performance will only receive points if it's nominated in the leading category (see the Kate Winslet Rule)

Supporting Actor

1. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
-. Christopher Waltz, Inglourious Basterds (1.00)
-. James McAvoy, The Last Station (1.00)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (1.00)
-. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (1.00)

How to read this:
In the supporting categories, an actor can end up in the final Top 10, if he's nominated for the Best Ensemble Award from the Screen Actors Guild (as happend last year with Kevin Bacon (Frost/Nixon) and James Franco (Milk)).

But which of these films will be nominated for the SAG Best Ensemble Award? Inglorious Basterds maybe? It's hard to predict...

Supporting Actress

1. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (1.00)
-. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (1.00)
-. Mo'nique, Precious (1.00)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.00)
-. Penelope Cruz, Nine (1.00)

How to read this
Penelope Cruz is the only Oscar Winner in this lineup, so she has the biggest chance to end up in the final Top 5 (see the Meryl Streep Rule).

I think Nine, Precious and Up in the Air are likely to get receive a SAG Best Ensemble nomination. So, besides Penelope, this has been a good day for Mo'nique and Anna Kendrick.


Original Screenplay
1. 500 Days of Summer (1.00)
-. A Serious Man (1.00)
-. Bright Star (1.00)
-. The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Up (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. An Education (1.00)
-. District 9 (1.00)
-. Julie & Julia (1.00)
-. Precious (1.00)
-. Up in the Air (1.00)

How to read this
Anything can still happen...