1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (31.97)
2. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (23.38)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (20.21)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (12.35)
5. James Cameron, Avatar (11.77)
6. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (9.66)
7. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)
8. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
9. Lone Scherfig, An Education (2.43)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (2.37)
To my own suprise there are only two locks. The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air and Inglourious Basterds must win an important Golden Globe (picture, director, actor, actress or screenplay) otherwise they will be this year's Too Early Front Runner. And that's especially bad news for Basterds. If the Tarantino film fails to win one of these, its score will be divided by 2.5 and it'll leave the top 5, in favor of District 9.
The chances for District 9 to crack into the top 5, are almost diminished by its ineligibility for the Writers Guild Award. In fact Inglourious Basterds, An Education, Up, In the Loop, A Single Man, The Road and Fantastic Mr. Fox are all ineligible for the Writers Guild. That and the new rule by the Producers Guild to nominate ten instead of five films, will have a bad effect on the Formula's prediction rate, I'm afraid, and especially in the best director category.