1. Mo'nique, Precious (25.21)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (15.77)
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (11.44)
4. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (10.44)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)
6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)
Diane Kruger can only defeat Jullianne Moore if she wins the best supporting actress award of the Online Film Critics and receives a nomination from BAFTA. But the idea of any supporting actress award not going to Mo'Nique is so unlikely these days. Which is good news for Julianne Moore. Moore is the only difference with the SAG nominations (they went for Kruger instead).
I don't feel confident about this category at all. Are Kruger and Morton not stronger contenders than Cruz and Moore? Formula, I fear you're making two mistakes here...