BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (26.20)
2. Inglorious Bastards (13.72)
3. Precious (11.18)
4. Up in the Air (10.54)
5. Nine (9.17)

6. An Education (2.83)
7. Invictus (2.14)
8. 500 Days of Summer (1.32)
9. Julie & Julia (1.24)
10. The White Ribbon (0.94)

11. A Serious Man (0.91)
12. It's Complicated (0.89)
13. The Last Station (0.86)

Note
No big awards, no big changes, but I wanted to end the year with an update. The Academy published the list of eligible films. Since Summer Hours, Seraphine and A Prophet are not on that list, I deleted them from the Formula.

The awards handed out since the last update were the Satellite Awards, and the film critics from Chicago and Florida.

Enjoy!

And a happy new year!

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (22.03)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (11.62)
3. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (7.51)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (6.68)
5. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)

6. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.25)
7. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.94)
8. Lone Scherfig, An Education (1.70)
9. Wes Anderson, Fantastic Mr. Fox (1.58)
10. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (1.31)

Note
There are no locks yet, but Bigelow, Tarantino and Reitman are very strong contenders. I expect Lee Daniels and James Cameron to join them...

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (17.75)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (13.55)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (7.22)

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
7. Matt Damon, The Informant (2.34)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
The bold ones are locks! These are the predicted best actor nominations, and it's mathematically impossible for any actor to crack into the top 5.

Best Actress

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (16.77)
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (13.71)
3. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (8.83)
4. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)
5. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (6.11)

6. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)
7. Tilda Swinton, Julia (2.00)
8. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
9. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.50)
10. Sandra Bullock, The Proposal (1.23)

Note
The bold ones are locks. Only Shohreh Aghdashloo and The Proposal's Sandra Bullock are mathematically out...

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (24.10)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (13.55)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)

6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.02)
-. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
9. James McAvoy, The Last Station (0.30)
-. Timothy Spall, The Damned United (0.30)

Note
The bold ones are locks. That's our second fixed category.

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (22.49)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (13.55)
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (11.44)
4. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (9.33)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (5.22)

6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (4.00)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.45)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
The bold ones are locks. If I would predict the nominees myself, I would pick Samantha Morton for the fifth spot. But history learned that the Formula is better at this than me, so...

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (12.44) - LOCK! -
2. Inglorious Bastards (7.17)
3. A Serious Man (6.97)
4. 500 Days of Summer (5.77)
5. Up (5.61)

6. Sin Nombre (2.41)
7. It's Complicated (2.35)
8. The White Ribbon (1.50)
9. Broken Embraces (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)
-. The Maid (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (20.83) - LOCK! -
2. In the Loop (6.22)
3. District 9 (4.92)
4. An Education (3.51)
5. Fantastic Mr. Fox (3.25)
-. Precious (3.25)

7. Where the Wild Things Are (1.70)
8. Julie & Julia (1.35)
9. The Informant! (1.00)

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (24.38) - LOCK! -
2. Inglorious Bastards (13.72) - LOCK! -
3. Precious (10.36) - LOCK! -
4. Up in the Air (9.58) - LOCK! -
5. Nine (8.67) - LOCK! -

6. An Education (2.83)
7. Invictus (2.14)
8. Julie & Julia (1.24)
9. Summer Hours (1.00)
10. A Serious Man (0.91)

11 It's Complicated (0.89)
12. The Last Station (0.86)
13. The Messenger (0.84)

Note
This is an update of Sijmen's Oscar Experiment with the Dallas-Forth Worth Film Critics Winners and the nominations from the Chicago Film Critics and the Screen Actors Guild.

As you'll see, the acting races are over. Best Actress is the only category where something surprising could happen. From now on, the changes will be smaller, and the focus will be on the best picture and best director category, where nothing is for sure yet!

But it's interesting to see that Avatar is not in the Best Picture top 10 anymore. (it's currently at number 14). Not a tragedy yet, but it's not good either...