Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (27.13)
2. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (19.04)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds (14.05)
4. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (9.66)
5. Lee Daniels, Precious (8.02)

6. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)
7. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
8. Lone Scherfig, An Education (2.43)
9. James Cameron, Avatar (2.04)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.94)

Note
After the DGA nominations are announced, James Cameron will be in the top 5. Bigelow, Reitman & Tarantino will be his fellow nominees. I always felt sure that Lee Daniels would fill the fifth spot, but now I feel Blomkamp could be a spoiler... Mmmmm... I like spoilers...

BEST PICTURE

1. The Hurt Locker (29.73)
2. Inglorious Bastards (14.74)
3. Precious (11.18)
4. Up in the Air (10.96)
5. Nine (9.17)

6. An Education (2.83)
7. Invictus (2.14)
8. A Serious Man (1.67)
9. 500 Days of Summer (1.32)
10. Julie & Julia (1.24)

11. The White Ribbon (0.94)
12. It's Complicated (0.89)
13. The Last Station (0.86)
14. The Messenger (0.84)
15. Avatar (0.80)

Note
The last update before the Producers Guild (1/5) and Directors Guild (1/7) will radically change the rankings. New awards since the last update are the National Society of Film Critics, the nominations from the Online Film Critics and the 'for your considerations' from Entertainment Weekly.

I expect this to be the last update without an Avatar in the Best Picture Top 10. (The bold titles are locks)

Best Director

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (25.80)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (12.72)
3. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (7.51)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (6.68)
5. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)

6. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.25)
7. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (2.33)
8. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (1.94)
9. Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man (1.77)
10. Lone Scherfig, An Education (1.70)

Note
Just one lock, but that will change very soon...

Best Actor

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (18.86)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (15.77)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (9.94)

6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best actor...

Best Actress

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (17.88)
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (14.82)
3. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (9.94)
4. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)
5. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (6.11)

6. Tilda Swinton, Julia (5.22)
7. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)
8. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
9. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.50)
10. Sandra Bullock, The Proposal (1.23)

Note
Since Julia is ineligible for the BAFTA's, Swinton can't get any more points to crack into the top 5. The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best actress...

Supporting Actor

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (26.82)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (16.66)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)

6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
7. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
10. Paul Schneider, Bright Star (0.45)

Note
The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best supporting actor... Aaargh! How can the Formula do its work if all the awards go to the same actor over and over and over again? Sure he was fun, but was Waltz really that good?
Congrats to the National Board of Review for being the one and only year-end award not awarding Christoph Waltz (they went for Harrelson).

Supporting Actress

1. Mo'nique, Precious (25.21)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (15.77)
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (11.44)
4. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (10.44)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)

6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
Diane Kruger can only defeat Jullianne Moore if she wins the best supporting actress award of the Online Film Critics and receives a nomination from BAFTA. But the idea of any supporting actress award not going to Mo'Nique is so unlikely these days. Which is good news for Julianne Moore. Moore is the only difference with the SAG nominations (they went for Kruger instead).

I don't feel confident about this category at all. Are Kruger and Morton not stronger contenders than Cruz and Moore? Formula, I fear you're making two mistakes here...

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (14.25)
2. A Serious Man (10.04)
3. Inglorious Bastards (8.63)
4. Up (7.07)
5. 500 Days of Summer (6.88)

6. Sin Nombre (2.41)
7. It's Complicated (2.35)
8. The White Ribbon (1.50)
9. Broken Embraces (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)
-. The Maid (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (22.29)
2. In the Loop (7.33)
3. District 9 (6.03)
4. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.36)
5. An Education (3.51)

6. Precious (3.25)
7. Where the Wild Things Are (2.81)
8. Julie & Julia (1.35)
9. The Informant! (1.00)