I normally don't do any winner predictions, since (1) I don't have a formula for it, (2) I'm not the best predictor in the world and (3) my predictions usually just look just like yours.
This year my predictions are quiet diffrent from the others. So I decided to put them up anyway (so I can say 'I told you so' if my predictions turn out to be right :-)
So here they are:
Picture: The King's Speech
Director: Tom Hooper
Actor: Colin Firth
Actress: Natalie Portman
Sup. Actor: Geoffrey Rush
Sup. Actress: Helena Bonham Carter
Original Screenplay: The King's Speech
Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Cinematography: True Grit
Editing: The Social Network
Art Direction: Inception
Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
Score: The King's Speech
Song: Toy Story 3
Make up: Barney's Version
Sound Editing: Inception
Sound Mixing: Inception
Visual Effects: Inception
Foreign Language Film: Dogtooth (the conventional voters will split their votes over the other four nominees, while all the cool guys will vote for this film. I would love that to happen)
Documentary: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Animation: Toy Story 3
Short Film: Na Wewe
Short Animation: Day & Night
Short Doc: Poster Girl
Friday, February 25, 2011
Monday, January 24, 2011
BEST PICTURE
New events: Critics Choice Winners, Golden Globe Winners, Nominations from BAFTA, American Cinema Editors and Costume Designers Guild.
FINAL RANKING
1. (1.) The Social Network (67.19!)
2. (4.) The King's Speech (31.74)
3. (3.) Black Swan (31.34)
4. (2.) Inception (30.48)
5. (5.) The Fighter (26.16)
6. (6.) The Kids Are All Right (10.67)
7. (7.) True Grit (8.69)
8. (8.) 127 Hours (5.94)
9. (9.) The Town (5.52)
10. (10.) Winter's Bone (4.73)
11. (11.) Toy Story 3 (4.67)
12. (14.) Alice in Wonderland (1.63)
13. (12.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
Toy Story 3 will be nominated for sure. So the Formula made at least one mistake this year. Tomorow we'll know what the other mistakes are, and if the Formula did better than most Oscar Pundits...
FINAL RANKING
1. (1.) The Social Network (67.19!)
2. (4.) The King's Speech (31.74)
3. (3.) Black Swan (31.34)
4. (2.) Inception (30.48)
5. (5.) The Fighter (26.16)
6. (6.) The Kids Are All Right (10.67)
7. (7.) True Grit (8.69)
8. (8.) 127 Hours (5.94)
9. (9.) The Town (5.52)
10. (10.) Winter's Bone (4.73)
11. (11.) Toy Story 3 (4.67)
12. (14.) Alice in Wonderland (1.63)
13. (12.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
Toy Story 3 will be nominated for sure. So the Formula made at least one mistake this year. Tomorow we'll know what the other mistakes are, and if the Formula did better than most Oscar Pundits...
Best Director
1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (60.54)!
2. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (24.86)
3. (4.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (24.64)
4. (2.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (24.51)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (16.77)
6. (6.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (5.31)
7. (7.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (4.75)
8. (8.) Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (3.20)
9. (9.) Ben Affleck, The Town (2.31)
10. (10.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
This is what everybody else is predicting, and I really hope this will come true. Fincher, Nolan and Aronofsky are three of the best directors of the last ten years. David O. Russel had a bad decade, but he could very well be one of the best directors of the next ten years. They all deserved this recognition at the turn of the millenium (for Fight Club, Memento, Requiem for a Dream and Three Kings respectively). Fingers crossed!
2. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (24.86)
3. (4.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (24.64)
4. (2.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (24.51)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (16.77)
6. (6.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (5.31)
7. (7.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (4.75)
8. (8.) Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (3.20)
9. (9.) Ben Affleck, The Town (2.31)
10. (10.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
This is what everybody else is predicting, and I really hope this will come true. Fincher, Nolan and Aronofsky are three of the best directors of the last ten years. David O. Russel had a bad decade, but he could very well be one of the best directors of the next ten years. They all deserved this recognition at the turn of the millenium (for Fight Club, Memento, Requiem for a Dream and Three Kings respectively). Fingers crossed!
Best Actor
1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (28.82)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (15.27)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (12.16)
4. (4.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (9.44)
5. (5.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)
6. (6.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5.33)
7. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (5.22)
8. (7.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)
9. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
10. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
--. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
--. (12.) Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version (1.00)
Weirdly enough, this is what everybody else is predicting. Weird, because if I would predict without a Formula, I would go for Bardem instaed of Duvall. On the other hand, I use this Formula because without it, I'm a worthless Oscar predictor.
One side note. If you don't look at the performances, but just at the actors and their body of work up to now, the top 7 should be opside down: Bardem, Gosling and Duvall should be the locks, and Firth, Eisenberg and Franco should be the 'possibles'. Just a thought I had during my morning shower.
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (15.27)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (12.16)
4. (4.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (9.44)
5. (5.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)
6. (6.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5.33)
7. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (5.22)
8. (7.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)
9. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
10. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
--. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
--. (12.) Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version (1.00)
Weirdly enough, this is what everybody else is predicting. Weird, because if I would predict without a Formula, I would go for Bardem instaed of Duvall. On the other hand, I use this Formula because without it, I'm a worthless Oscar predictor.
One side note. If you don't look at the performances, but just at the actors and their body of work up to now, the top 7 should be opside down: Bardem, Gosling and Duvall should be the locks, and Firth, Eisenberg and Franco should be the 'possibles'. Just a thought I had during my morning shower.
Best Actress
1. (1.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (22.60)
2. (2.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (15.88)
3. (3.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (14.27)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (10.44)
5. (5.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (6.19)
6. (6.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)
7. (7.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)
9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.99)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)
Not too many people are predicting Julianne Moore (Michelle Williams seems to be the general consensus). In a perfect world Moore and Williams would both be nominated.
2. (2.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (15.88)
3. (3.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (14.27)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (10.44)
5. (5.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (6.19)
6. (6.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)
7. (7.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)
9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.99)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)
Not too many people are predicting Julianne Moore (Michelle Williams seems to be the general consensus). In a perfect world Moore and Williams would both be nominated.
Supporting Actor
1. (1.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (23.60)
2. (2.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (17.99)
3. (3.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (10.44)
4. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
5. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (8.55)
6. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (7.83)
7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
8. (-.) Armie Hammer, The Social Network (1.00)
9. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)
-. (-.) Pete Postlethwaite, The Town (0.30)
This seems the most logic prediction. Hurray for two heroes of mine finally getting some Oscar recognition: Bale and Ruffalo!
2. (2.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (17.99)
3. (3.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (10.44)
4. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
5. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (8.55)
6. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (7.83)
7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
8. (-.) Armie Hammer, The Social Network (1.00)
9. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)
-. (-.) Pete Postlethwaite, The Town (0.30)
This seems the most logic prediction. Hurray for two heroes of mine finally getting some Oscar recognition: Bale and Ruffalo!
Supporting Actress
1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (20.88)
2. (2.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (13.77)
3. (3.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (12.05)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (10.44)
5. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (10.05)
6. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (9.33)
7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (1.17)
8. (-.) Barbara Hershey, Black Swan (1.00)
9. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (-.) Ann Guilbert, Please Give (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (-.) Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)
Everybody else seems to predict Mila Kunis instead of Jacki Weaver, but even without this Formula, I would still go for Weaver...
2. (2.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (13.77)
3. (3.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (12.05)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (10.44)
5. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (10.05)
6. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (9.33)
7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (1.17)
8. (-.) Barbara Hershey, Black Swan (1.00)
9. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (-.) Ann Guilbert, Please Give (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (-.) Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)
Everybody else seems to predict Mila Kunis instead of Jacki Weaver, but even without this Formula, I would still go for Weaver...
Screenplays
Original Screenplay
1. (2.) The King's Speech (22.49)
2. (1.) Inception (20.77)
3. (3.) The Kids Are All Right (17.52)
4. (4.) Black Swan (14.94)
5. (5.) The Fighter (12.02)
6. (6.) Please Give (5.11)
7. (7.) Buried (3.00)
8. (8.) Four Lions (2.61)
9. (9.) I Am Love (2.41)
10. (10.) Biutiful (2.26)
This prediction seems solid.
Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (48.58)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (14.06)
3. (3.) True Grit (11.89)
4. (4.) Toy Story 3 (10.58)
5. (5.) The Town (8.62)
6. (6.) Winter's Bone (5.67)
7. (8.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (5.63)
8. (7.) I Love You Philip Morris (5.11)
9. (9.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2.11)
10. (10.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
I would be very surprised if Winter's Bone failed to score a nomination in this category. That would be the Formula's second certain mistake.
1. (2.) The King's Speech (22.49)
2. (1.) Inception (20.77)
3. (3.) The Kids Are All Right (17.52)
4. (4.) Black Swan (14.94)
5. (5.) The Fighter (12.02)
6. (6.) Please Give (5.11)
7. (7.) Buried (3.00)
8. (8.) Four Lions (2.61)
9. (9.) I Am Love (2.41)
10. (10.) Biutiful (2.26)
This prediction seems solid.
Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (48.58)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (14.06)
3. (3.) True Grit (11.89)
4. (4.) Toy Story 3 (10.58)
5. (5.) The Town (8.62)
6. (6.) Winter's Bone (5.67)
7. (8.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (5.63)
8. (7.) I Love You Philip Morris (5.11)
9. (9.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2.11)
10. (10.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
I would be very surprised if Winter's Bone failed to score a nomination in this category. That would be the Formula's second certain mistake.
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