Best Actress

1. (1.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (22.60)
2. (2.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (15.88)
3. (3.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (14.27)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (10.44)
5. (5.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (6.19)

6. (6.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)
7. (7.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)
9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.99)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)

Not too many people are predicting Julianne Moore (Michelle Williams seems to be the general consensus). In a perfect world Moore and Williams would both be nominated.

Supporting Actor

1. (1.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (23.60)
2. (2.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (17.99)
3. (3.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (10.44)
4. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
5. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (8.55)

6. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (7.83)
7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
8. (-.) Armie Hammer, The Social Network (1.00)
9. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)
-. (-.) Pete Postlethwaite, The Town (0.30)

This seems the most logic prediction. Hurray for two heroes of mine finally getting some Oscar recognition: Bale and Ruffalo!

Supporting Actress

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (20.88)
2. (2.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (13.77)
3. (3.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (12.05)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (10.44)
5. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (10.05)

6. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (9.33)
7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (1.17)
8. (-.) Barbara Hershey, Black Swan (1.00)
9. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (-.) Ann Guilbert, Please Give (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (-.) Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Everybody else seems to predict Mila Kunis instead of Jacki Weaver, but even without this Formula, I would still go for Weaver...

Screenplays

Original Screenplay
1. (2.) The King's Speech (22.49)
2. (1.) Inception (20.77)
3. (3.) The Kids Are All Right (17.52)
4. (4.) Black Swan (14.94)
5. (5.) The Fighter (12.02)

6. (6.) Please Give (5.11)
7. (7.) Buried (3.00)
8. (8.) Four Lions (2.61)
9. (9.) I Am Love (2.41)
10. (10.) Biutiful (2.26)

This prediction seems solid.

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (48.58)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (14.06)
3. (3.) True Grit (11.89)
4. (4.) Toy Story 3 (10.58)
5. (5.) The Town (8.62)

6. (6.) Winter's Bone (5.67)
7. (8.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (5.63)
8. (7.) I Love You Philip Morris (5.11)
9. (9.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2.11)
10. (10.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

I would be very surprised if Winter's Bone failed to score a nomination in this category. That would be the Formula's second certain mistake.

We'll do this later

The final update is coming later, somewhere this weekend.

But you can read The Experiment's FINAL Oscar Prediction HERE (without the rankings and the points for now, those don't really matter anymore)

Post Globes Update

This weekend, we had the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards and the nominations from the American Cinema Editors. But, due to a lack of change, I will not update these rankings until tomorrow's BAFTA Nominations.

The most important change of this weekend, happened in the best supporting actress category, where Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) climbed into the top 5 (finally!). Thanks to her Young Actress-win at the Critics Choice Awards, she climbs from number 6 to number 4.

Tomorrow we'll know The Formula's FINAL RESULTS! The following actors need a nomination from BAFTA, or they are out:
* Michelle Williams
* Andrew Garfield
* Mila Kunis
* And last but not least, Toy Story 3 needs a BAFTA nomination for best picture.

You can read the updated CALCULATIONS in excel.

BEST PICTURE

1. (1.) The Social Network (55.39!)
2. (2.) Inception (26.23)
3. (4.) Black Swan (26.07)
4. (3.) The King's Speech (25.65)
5. (5.) The Fighter (23.26)

6. (6.) The Kids Are All Right (8.59)
7. (7.) True Grit (7.50)
8. (8.) 127 Hours (5.94)
9. (9.) The Town (5.52)
10. (10.) Winter's Bone (4.73)

11. (11.) Toy Story 3 (4.23)
12. (12.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
13. (13.) Get Low (0.96)

New events since previous edition:
Directors Guild Nominations
American Society of Cinematographers Nominations
Art Directors Guild Nominations
Cinema Audio Society Nominations
National Society of Film Critics (winners and first runners-up)
Entertainment Weekly's For Your Considerations

Contenders in italic are locks.

In the best picture race it's Toy Story 3 versus Winter's Bone. Both films would probably have done better if they were eligible for the WGA... *sigh* Yes, the Formula has its flaws...

See the CALCULATIONS (in excell).

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (47.73)
2. (2.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (20.84)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (19.39)
4. (4.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (18.25)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (14.22)

6. (6.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (4.73)
7. (7.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (3.73)
8. (12.) Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (2.98)
9. (13.) Ben Affleck, The Town (2.31)
10. (9.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

This top 5 is final. Whatever happens, nobody else can enter it.