The 2012 Experiment is over

It's that time of year again: Tomorow is D-day for us, film award buffs.

here's how The Experiment predicts tomorow Oscar nominations:
http://oscarsijmen.freehostia.com/12oscpik.htm

Big surprises are: Rachel Weisz for Best Actress, Nicole Kidman for Bets Supporting Actress and David O. Russell for Best Director. But I don't feel safe about these at all!

We'll know more in just a few hours from now!

Oscar Experiment 2012-2013

This year, the Oscar noms will be announced before the Globes are handed out, even before we'll know the DGA nominees. So there will be no experiment this year. That's okay. The real Oscar nominations are much more fun than the Experiment's predictions; anyway.

But that shouldn't stop you from seeing how the standing would be today. With the nominations from the Golden Globes and the SAG behind us, the acting races are all ready boiled down to 6 or 7 contenders. So it's very intersting indeed!

FYI, these are the current leader in every category:

Best Picture: Argo
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor (TIE): Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) and Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Best Supporting Actress: Sally Field, Lincoln
Best Original Screenplay: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo

But that doesn't mean shit. This experiment does NOT predict the winners, only who will be nominated. It's simple: if you're in the top 5 you will be nominated.

Here it is:

BEST PICTURE
1. Argo - 10,18
2. Zero Dark Thirty - 9,37
3. Lincoln - 7,58
4. Silver Linings Playbook - 6,66
5. Les Miserables - 5,57

6. The Master - 3,83
7. Amour - 3,82
8. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel - 3,5
9. Django Unchained - 3,2
10. Beasts of the Southern Wild - 2,8

11. Life of Pi - 2,54
12. Moonrise Kingdom - 2,04

(Note: Unfortunately, the Experiment does not predict how many films will be nominated.)

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BEST DIRECTOR
1. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty - 8,238
2. Ben Affleck, Argo - 5,261
3. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln - 4,913
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master - 3,847
5. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook - 3,841

6. Michael Haneke, Amour - 2,162
7. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained - 1,711
8. Tom Hooper, Les Miserables - 1,066
9. John Madden, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel - 0,844
-. Ben Lewin, The Sessions - 0,844

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BEST ACTOR
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln - 15,16 (LOCKED)
2. Denzel Washington, Flight - 10,44 (LOCKED)
3. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook - 9,08 (LOCKED)
4. John Hawkes, The Sessions - 8,33 (LOCKED)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master - 6,33

Still has a shot:
6. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables - 5,97

Out of the race:
7. Jack Black, Bernie - 2,86
8. Richard Gere, Arbitrage - 2
9. Denis Lavant, Holy Motors - 1,02
10. Ewan McGregor, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen - 0,75
--. Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson - 0,75

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BEST ACTRESS
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook - 12,3 (LOCKED)
2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty - 11,44 (LOCKED)
3. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock - 8,22
-. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone - 8,22

5. Naomie Watts, The Impossible - 7,22
-. Rachel Weisz, Deep Blue Sea - 7,22

Out of the race:
7. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour - 2,30
8. Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz - 1,5
9. Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina - 1
-. Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson - 1

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln - 10,44
-. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master - 10,44
3. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained - 9,94
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained - 8,33
5. Alan Arkin, Argo - 8,22

Still have a shot:
6. Javier Bardem, Skyfall - 7,22
-. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook - 7,22

Out of the race:
8. Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild - 1,32
9. Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables - 1
10. John Goodman, Flight - 0,3
--. Jason Clarke, Zero Dark Thirty - 0,3

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Sally Field, Lincoln - 12,44 (LOCKED)
2. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables - 10,44
3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions - 9,44
-. Amy Adams, The Master - 9,44
5. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy - 8,22

Still have a chance:
6. Judi Dench, Skyfall - 4,22
7. Maggie Smith, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel - 4

Out of the race:
8. Samantha Barks, Les Miserables - 1
9. Ann Dowd, Compliance - 0,91
10. Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower - 0,45

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BEST ORGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Zero Dark Thirty - 10,19 (LOCKED)
2. Amour - 5,22
3. Looper - 4,46
4. The Master - 4,42
5. Django Unchained - 3,46

6. Moonrise Kingdom - 2,81
7. Holy Motors - 1,15
8. Flight - 1
-. The Intouchables - 1

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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Argo - 10,69 (LOCKED)
2. Silver Linings Playbook - 10,49 (LOCKED)
3. Lincoln - 8,73 (LOCKED)
4. Beasts of the Southern Wild - 2,05
5. Life of Pi - 1,7

6. Anna Karenina - 1
-. The Sessions - 1
-. The Perks of Being a Wallflower - 1

That's it!

You can donwload the Excell pages HERE.

If you want to know how the formula works, read these pages:

Best Picture Category

Best Director Category

The Acting Categories

The Writing Category

Have a nice award season!

The Oscar Experiment 2012: The Results

Well, it's not completely over, but not that much is going to change anymore.

So here is the (somewhat weird) result of this year's experiment:
http://oscarsijmen.freehostia.com/11oscpik.htm

Some weird things:
* No Hugo for Best Picture (unless there are 8 nominees)
* Moneyball for best picture and best director
* Michael Shannon for best actor instead of Leonardo DiCaprio (My guess would be Gary Oldman)
* Bridesmaids for best original screenplay, and not for best supporting actress.

Now starts the wait until the Oscar nominations...

Thanks Richard, Snowweisz and Karol for your input (and showing my mistakes :-)

The 2011-2012 Award Season has arrived...

There won't be a Sijmen's Oscar Experiment this year. I'll do the experiment just for me (because I can't help myself), but I won't put the results up after every single award... (I'll reveal the results when the experiment is over, just a few days before the Oscar Nominations are announced.)

However, if you want to know what the experiment is saying right now, you can donwload the Excell pages HERE.

That link will be updated twice a week.

If you want to know how the formula works, read these pages:

Best Picture Category

Best Director Category

The Acting Categories

The Writing Category

Have a nice award season!

Winner Predictions

I normally don't do any winner predictions, since (1) I don't have a formula for it, (2) I'm not the best predictor in the world and (3) my predictions usually just look just like yours.

This year my predictions are quiet diffrent from the others. So I decided to put them up anyway (so I can say 'I told you so' if my predictions turn out to be right :-)

So here they are:

Picture: The King's Speech
Director: Tom Hooper
Actor: Colin Firth
Actress: Natalie Portman
Sup. Actor: Geoffrey Rush
Sup. Actress: Helena Bonham Carter
Original Screenplay: The King's Speech
Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Cinematography: True Grit
Editing: The Social Network
Art Direction: Inception
Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
Score: The King's Speech
Song: Toy Story 3
Make up: Barney's Version
Sound Editing: Inception
Sound Mixing: Inception
Visual Effects: Inception
Foreign Language Film: Dogtooth (the conventional voters will split their votes over the other four nominees, while all the cool guys will vote for this film. I would love that to happen)
Documentary: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Animation: Toy Story 3

Short Film: Na Wewe
Short Animation: Day & Night
Short Doc: Poster Girl

BEST PICTURE

New events: Critics Choice Winners, Golden Globe Winners, Nominations from BAFTA, American Cinema Editors and Costume Designers Guild.

FINAL RANKING
1. (1.) The Social Network (67.19!)
2. (4.) The King's Speech (31.74)
3. (3.) Black Swan (31.34)
4. (2.) Inception (30.48)
5. (5.) The Fighter (26.16)

6. (6.) The Kids Are All Right (10.67)
7. (7.) True Grit (8.69)
8. (8.) 127 Hours (5.94)
9. (9.) The Town (5.52)
10. (10.) Winter's Bone (4.73)

11. (11.) Toy Story 3 (4.67)
12. (14.) Alice in Wonderland (1.63)
13. (12.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

Toy Story 3 will be nominated for sure. So the Formula made at least one mistake this year. Tomorow we'll know what the other mistakes are, and if the Formula did better than most Oscar Pundits...

Best Director

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (60.54)!
2. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (24.86)
3. (4.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (24.64)
4. (2.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (24.51)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (16.77)

6. (6.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (5.31)
7. (7.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (4.75)
8. (8.) Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (3.20)
9. (9.) Ben Affleck, The Town (2.31)
10. (10.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

This is what everybody else is predicting, and I really hope this will come true. Fincher, Nolan and Aronofsky are three of the best directors of the last ten years. David O. Russel had a bad decade, but he could very well be one of the best directors of the next ten years. They all deserved this recognition at the turn of the millenium (for Fight Club, Memento, Requiem for a Dream and Three Kings respectively). Fingers crossed!

Best Actor

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (28.82)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (15.27)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (12.16)
4. (4.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (9.44)
5. (5.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (6.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5.33)
7. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (5.22)
8. (7.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)
9. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
10. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
--. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
--. (12.) Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version (1.00)

Weirdly enough, this is what everybody else is predicting. Weird, because if I would predict without a Formula, I would go for Bardem instaed of Duvall. On the other hand, I use this Formula because without it, I'm a worthless Oscar predictor.

One side note. If you don't look at the performances, but just at the actors and their body of work up to now, the top 7 should be opside down: Bardem, Gosling and Duvall should be the locks, and Firth, Eisenberg and Franco should be the 'possibles'. Just a thought I had during my morning shower.