Sijmen's Oscar Experiment

The Oscar Experiment 2012: The Results

2012-01-17T01:53:00.000-08:00

Well, it's not completely over, but not that much is going to change anymore.

So here is the (somewhat weird) result of this year's experiment:
http://oscarsijmen.freehostia.com/11oscpik.htm

Some weird things:
* No Hugo for Best Picture (unless there are 8 nominees)
* Moneyball for best picture and best director
* Michael Shannon for best actor instead of Leonardo DiCaprio (My guess would be Gary Oldman)
* Bridesmaids for best original screenplay, and not for best supporting actress.

Now starts the wait until the Oscar nominations...

Thanks Richard, Snowweisz and Karol for your input (and showing my mistakes :-)

The 2011-2012 Award Season has arrived...

2011-12-02T00:33:00.000-08:00

There won't be a Sijmen's Oscar Experiment this year. I'll do the experiment just for me (because I can't help myself), but I won't put the results up after every single award... (I'll reveal the results when the experiment is over, just a few days before the Oscar Nominations are announced.)

However, if you want to know what the experiment is saying right now, you can donwload the Excell pages HERE.

That link will be updated twice a week.

If you want to know how the formula works, read these pages:

Best Picture Category

Best Director Category

The Acting Categories

The Writing Category

Have a nice award season!

Winner Predictions

2011-02-25T00:29:00.000-08:00

I normally don't do any winner predictions, since (1) I don't have a formula for it, (2) I'm not the best predictor in the world and (3) my predictions usually just look just like yours.

This year my predictions are quiet diffrent from the others. So I decided to put them up anyway (so I can say 'I told you so' if my predictions turn out to be right :-)

So here they are:

Picture: The King's Speech
Director: Tom Hooper
Actor: Colin Firth
Actress: Natalie Portman
Sup. Actor: Geoffrey Rush
Sup. Actress: Helena Bonham Carter
Original Screenplay: The King's Speech
Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Cinematography: True Grit
Editing: The Social Network
Art Direction: Inception
Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
Score: The King's Speech
Song: Toy Story 3
Make up: Barney's Version
Sound Editing: Inception
Sound Mixing: Inception
Visual Effects: Inception
Foreign Language Film: Dogtooth (the conventional voters will split their votes over the other four nominees, while all the cool guys will vote for this film. I would love that to happen)
Documentary: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Animation: Toy Story 3

Short Film: Na Wewe
Short Animation: Day & Night
Short Doc: Poster Girl

BEST PICTURE

2011-01-24T12:14:00.000-08:00

New events: Critics Choice Winners, Golden Globe Winners, Nominations from BAFTA, American Cinema Editors and Costume Designers Guild.

FINAL RANKING
1. (1.) The Social Network (67.19!)
2. (4.) The King's Speech (31.74)
3. (3.) Black Swan (31.34)
4. (2.) Inception (30.48)
5. (5.) The Fighter (26.16)

6. (6.) The Kids Are All Right (10.67)
7. (7.) True Grit (8.69)
8. (8.) 127 Hours (5.94)
9. (9.) The Town (5.52)
10. (10.) Winter's Bone (4.73)

11. (11.) Toy Story 3 (4.67)
12. (14.) Alice in Wonderland (1.63)
13. (12.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

Toy Story 3 will be nominated for sure. So the Formula made at least one mistake this year. Tomorow we'll know what the other mistakes are, and if the Formula did better than most Oscar Pundits...

Best Director

2011-01-24T11:56:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (60.54)!
2. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (24.86)
3. (4.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (24.64)
4. (2.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (24.51)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (16.77)

6. (6.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (5.31)
7. (7.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (4.75)
8. (8.) Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (3.20)
9. (9.) Ben Affleck, The Town (2.31)
10. (10.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

This is what everybody else is predicting, and I really hope this will come true. Fincher, Nolan and Aronofsky are three of the best directors of the last ten years. David O. Russel had a bad decade, but he could very well be one of the best directors of the next ten years. They all deserved this recognition at the turn of the millenium (for Fight Club, Memento, Requiem for a Dream and Three Kings respectively). Fingers crossed!

Best Actor

2011-01-24T11:46:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (28.82)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (15.27)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (12.16)
4. (4.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (9.44)
5. (5.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (6.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5.33)
7. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (5.22)
8. (7.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)
9. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
10. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
--. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
--. (12.) Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version (1.00)

Weirdly enough, this is what everybody else is predicting. Weird, because if I would predict without a Formula, I would go for Bardem instaed of Duvall. On the other hand, I use this Formula because without it, I'm a worthless Oscar predictor.

One side note. If you don't look at the performances, but just at the actors and their body of work up to now, the top 7 should be opside down: Bardem, Gosling and Duvall should be the locks, and Firth, Eisenberg and Franco should be the 'possibles'. Just a thought I had during my morning shower.

Best Actress

2011-01-24T11:41:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (22.60)
2. (2.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (15.88)
3. (3.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (14.27)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (10.44)
5. (5.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (6.19)

6. (6.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)
7. (7.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)
9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.99)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)

Not too many people are predicting Julianne Moore (Michelle Williams seems to be the general consensus). In a perfect world Moore and Williams would both be nominated.

Supporting Actor

2011-01-24T11:34:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (23.60)
2. (2.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (17.99)
3. (3.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (10.44)
4. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
5. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (8.55)

6. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (7.83)
7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
8. (-.) Armie Hammer, The Social Network (1.00)
9. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)
-. (-.) Pete Postlethwaite, The Town (0.30)

This seems the most logic prediction. Hurray for two heroes of mine finally getting some Oscar recognition: Bale and Ruffalo!

Supporting Actress

2011-01-24T11:24:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (20.88)
2. (2.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (13.77)
3. (3.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (12.05)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (10.44)
5. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (10.05)

6. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (9.33)
7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (1.17)
8. (-.) Barbara Hershey, Black Swan (1.00)
9. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (-.) Ann Guilbert, Please Give (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (-.) Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Everybody else seems to predict Mila Kunis instead of Jacki Weaver, but even without this Formula, I would still go for Weaver...

Screenplays

2011-01-24T11:17:00.000-08:00

Original Screenplay
1. (2.) The King's Speech (22.49)
2. (1.) Inception (20.77)
3. (3.) The Kids Are All Right (17.52)
4. (4.) Black Swan (14.94)
5. (5.) The Fighter (12.02)

6. (6.) Please Give (5.11)
7. (7.) Buried (3.00)
8. (8.) Four Lions (2.61)
9. (9.) I Am Love (2.41)
10. (10.) Biutiful (2.26)

This prediction seems solid.

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (48.58)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (14.06)
3. (3.) True Grit (11.89)
4. (4.) Toy Story 3 (10.58)
5. (5.) The Town (8.62)

6. (6.) Winter's Bone (5.67)
7. (8.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (5.63)
8. (7.) I Love You Philip Morris (5.11)
9. (9.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2.11)
10. (10.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

I would be very surprised if Winter's Bone failed to score a nomination in this category. That would be the Formula's second certain mistake.

We'll do this later

2011-01-18T16:03:00.000-08:00

The final update is coming later, somewhere this weekend.

But you can read The Experiment's FINAL Oscar Prediction HERE (without the rankings and the points for now, those don't really matter anymore)

Post Globes Update

2011-01-17T05:01:00.000-08:00

This weekend, we had the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards and the nominations from the American Cinema Editors. But, due to a lack of change, I will not update these rankings until tomorrow's BAFTA Nominations.

The most important change of this weekend, happened in the best supporting actress category, where Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) climbed into the top 5 (finally!). Thanks to her Young Actress-win at the Critics Choice Awards, she climbs from number 6 to number 4.

Tomorrow we'll know The Formula's FINAL RESULTS! The following actors need a nomination from BAFTA, or they are out:
* Michelle Williams
* Andrew Garfield
* Mila Kunis
* And last but not least, Toy Story 3 needs a BAFTA nomination for best picture.

You can read the updated CALCULATIONS in excel.

BEST PICTURE

2011-01-10T12:47:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) The Social Network (55.39!)
2. (2.) Inception (26.23)
3. (4.) Black Swan (26.07)
4. (3.) The King's Speech (25.65)
5. (5.) The Fighter (23.26)

6. (6.) The Kids Are All Right (8.59)
7. (7.) True Grit (7.50)
8. (8.) 127 Hours (5.94)
9. (9.) The Town (5.52)
10. (10.) Winter's Bone (4.73)

11. (11.) Toy Story 3 (4.23)
12. (12.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
13. (13.) Get Low (0.96)

New events since previous edition:
Directors Guild Nominations
American Society of Cinematographers Nominations
Art Directors Guild Nominations
Cinema Audio Society Nominations
National Society of Film Critics (winners and first runners-up)
Entertainment Weekly's For Your Considerations

Contenders in italic are locks.

In the best picture race it's Toy Story 3 versus Winter's Bone. Both films would probably have done better if they were eligible for the WGA... *sigh* Yes, the Formula has its flaws...

See the CALCULATIONS (in excell).

Best Director

2011-01-10T12:44:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (47.73)
2. (2.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (20.84)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (19.39)
4. (4.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (18.25)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (14.22)

6. (6.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (4.73)
7. (7.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (3.73)
8. (12.) Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (2.98)
9. (13.) Ben Affleck, The Town (2.31)
10. (9.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

This top 5 is final. Whatever happens, nobody else can enter it.

Best Actor

2011-01-10T12:42:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (23.60)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (14.16)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (11.05)
4. (4.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (8.33)
5. (5.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (6.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5.33)
7. (7.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)
8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

This top 5 is final. Whatever happens, nobody else can enter it.

Best Actress

2011-01-10T12:37:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (17.38)
2. (3.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (14.52)
3. (2.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (14.27)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (10.44)
5. (7.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (5.08)

6. (5.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)

7. (6.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)
9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.89)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)

Supporting Actor

2011-01-10T12:24:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (18.38)
2. (2.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (16.88)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
-. (3.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (9.33)
5. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (7.83)

6. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (7.44)

7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
8. (-.) Armie Hammer, The Social Network (1.00)
9. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

Supporting Actress

2011-01-10T12:19:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (16.77)
2. (3.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (12.66)
3. (2.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (12.05)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (9.33)
-. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (9.33)

6. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (8.83)

7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (1.17)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (-.) Ann Guilbert, Please Give (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Steinfeld has one last chance: she must min something at the British Choice Awards, either best supporting actress or best new actress. Otherwise, she's out.

Screenplays

2011-01-10T12:12:00.000-08:00

Original Screenplay
1. (1.) Inception (19.31)
2. (3.) The King's Speech (17.92)
3. (2.) The Kids Are All Right (16.41)
4. (4.) Black Swan (13.48)
5. (5.) The Fighter (10.91)

6. (6.) Please Give (4.00)
7. (7.) Buried (3.00)
8. (8.) Four Lions (2.61)
9. (9.) I Am Love (2.41)
10. (10.) Biutiful (2.26)

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (38.79)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (12.95)
3. (3.) True Grit (10.43)
4. (4.) Toy Story 3 (8.77)
5. (5.) The Town (8.62)

6. (6.) Winter's Bone (5.67)
7. (7.) I Love You Philip Morris (4.00)
8. (8.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2.26)
9. (9.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2.11)
10. (10.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

These two top 5's are final.

BEST PICTURE

2011-01-04T23:45:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) The Social Network (49.43!)
2. (6.) Inception (22.12)
3. (2.) The King's Speech (21.98)
4. (3.) Black Swan (21.96)
5. (4.) The Fighter (20.03)

6. (5.) The Kids Are All Right (8.59)
7. (8.) True Grit (6.18)
8. (9.) 127 Hours (5.50)
9. (10.) The Town (5.08)
10. (7.) Winter's Bone (4.73)

11. (11.) Toy Story 3 (4.23)
12. (12.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
13. (13.) Get Low (0.52)

New events since previous edition:
Online Film Critics Winners
Producers Guild Nominations
Writers Guild Nominations

Contenders in italic are locks.
The Kids Are All Right lost some points since its PGA nomination. The film is now an Over-estimated comedy

See the CALCULATIONS (in excell).

Best Director

2011-01-04T23:40:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (40.07)
2. (6.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (15.84)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (14.39)
4. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (13.48)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (9.66)

6. (4.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (4.73)
7. (7.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (3.51)
8. (12.) Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (2.31)
9. (13.) Ben Affleck, The Town (2.01)
10. (9.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

Best Actor

2011-01-04T23:38:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (22.49)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (12.55)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (11.05)
4. (4.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (8.33)
5. (5.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (6.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5.33)

7. (7.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)
8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

Best Actress

2011-01-04T23:36:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (17.38)
2. (2.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (14.27)
3. (3.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (13.41)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (10.44)
5. (5.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)

6. (6.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
7. (7.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (3.97)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)

9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.89)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)

The race for that fifth spot is still wide open...

Supporting Actor

2011-01-04T23:34:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (17.27)
2. (2.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (15.27)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
-. (3.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (9.33)
5. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (7.83)

6. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (7.44)

7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
8. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

Supporting Actress

2011-01-04T23:33:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (16.77)
2. (2.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (12.05)
3. (3.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (11.55)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (9.33)
-. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (9.33)

6. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (8.83)

7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Steinfeld is coming closer and closer

Screenplays

2011-01-04T23:24:00.000-08:00

Original Screenplay
1. (2.) Inception (14.85)
2. (3.) The Kids Are All Right (14.30)
3. (1.) The King's Speech (12.35)
4. (4.) Black Swan (9.02)
5. (-.) The Fighter (6.45)

6. (-.) Please Give (4.00)
7. (5.) Buried (3.00)
8. (6.) Four Lions (2.61)
9. (7.) I Am Love (2.41)
10. (8.) Biutiful (2.26)

This is the first 'locked category'. At the end of this experiment, these will be the five predicted nominees. Whatever happens.

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (32.37)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (10.84)
3. (5.) True Grit (8.32)
4. (4.) Toy Story 3 (6.66)
5. (8.) The Town (6.51)

6. (3.) Winter's Bone (5.67)

7. (-.) I Love You Philip Morris (4.00)
8. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2.26)
9. (7.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2.11)
10. (9.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

BEST PICTURE

2010-12-30T00:20:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) The Social Network (41.86!)
2. (2.) The King's Speech (17.66)
3. (3.) Black Swan (15.71)
4. (4.) The Fighter (13.78)
5. (5.) The Kids Are All Right (12.27)

6. (6.) Inception (6.29)
7. (7.) Winter's Bone (5.05)
8. (-.) True Grit (2.93)
9. (8.) 127 Hours (2.25)
10. (10.) The Town (1.83)

11. (--.) Toy Story 3 (1.72)
12. (11.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
13. (12.) Get Low (0.84)

New events since previous edition:
Chicago Film Critics Winners
Online Film Critics Nominations
Academy's List of Eligible films
(Carlos, Mother, Of Gods and Men, A Prophet, Lourdes are ineligible)

Contenders in italic are locks.
Here are the CALCULATIONS (in excell)

Best Director

2010-12-30T00:07:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (35.99)
2. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (12.94)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (11.72)
4. (4.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (9.15)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (7.00)

6. (6.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (4.11)
7. (8.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (2.04)
8. (9.) Debra Granik, Winter's Bone (1.35)
9. (10.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
10. (11.) Luca Guadagnino, I Am Love (0.75)

Best Actor

2010-12-30T00:03:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (21.99)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (12.55)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (11.05)
4. (4.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (8.33)
5. (4.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (6.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5.33)

7. (7.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)
8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

Best Actress

2010-12-29T23:04:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (16.88)
2. (3.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (14.27)
3. (2.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (13.41)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (10.44)
5. (5.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)

6. (6.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
7. (7.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (3.97)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)

9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.89)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)

The race for that fifth spot is still wide open...

Supporting Actor

2010-12-29T23:02:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (16.77)
2. (2.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (15.27)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
-. (4.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (9.33)
5. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (7.83)

6. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (7.44)

7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
8. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

It's Garfield vs Hawkes in a very close race...

Supporting Actress

2010-12-29T22:59:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (16.77)
2. (2.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (12.05)
3. (3.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (11.55)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (9.33)
-. (5.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (9.33)

6. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (8.33)

7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Carter vs Kunis vs Steinfeld. Who will be left out?

Screenplays

2010-12-29T22:52:00.000-08:00

Original Screenplay
1. (1.) The King's Speech (11.65)
2. (3.) Inception (9.89)
3. (2.) The Kids Are All Right (9.84)
4. (4.) Black Swan (4.56)
5. (5.) Buried (3.00)

6. (7.) Four Lions (2.61)
7. (7.) I Am Love (2.41)
8. (9.) Biutiful (2.26)
9. (10.) Of Gods and Men (1.15)
-. (10.) Mother (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (27.41)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (6.38)
3. (4.) Winter's Bone (5.67)
4. (3.) Toy Story 3 (5.26)
5. (5.) True Grit (3.86)

6. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2.26)
7. (9.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2.11)
8. (7.) The Town (2.05)
9. (8.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
10. (9.) Fair Game (1.00)
--. (9.) Rabbit Hole (1.00)

BEST PICTURE

2010-12-20T11:52:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) The Social Network (39.19!)
2. (2.) The King's Speech (17.66)
3. (4.) Black Swan (14.36)
4. (3.) The Fighter (13.78)
5. (5.) The Kids Are All Right (12.27)

6. (6.) Inception (5.20)
7. (7.) Winter's Bone (4.30)
8. (9.) 127 Hours (2.25)
9. (8.) Carlos (2.10)
10. (10.) The Town (1.83)

11. (11.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
12. (12.) Get Low (0.84)
13. (13.) Red (0.80)

Notes
New awards since previous edition:
* Chicago Film Critics Nominations
* Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Winners
* Satellite Awards
* Florida Film Critics Awards

The italic contenders are locks (which means: by the end of the experiment the formula will predict them as nominees).

Do it yourself
I love doing the calculations (it makes me feel like I'm working at Price Waterhouse, counting ballots), but sometimes I'm too lazy to put them up here. That's why I invite you to do this experiment yourself. Don't worry, it's easy!

Here are the Calculations
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here is what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association: the best picture winner receives 1.5 points instead of his previous Chicago nomination point (which was 1 point). The best screenplay winners receive 0.8 points extra in the best picture category. The winning Foreign Language Film receives 0.8 points.

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point extra in column B, C and D.

Best Director

2010-12-20T11:38:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (33.47)
2. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (12.94)
3. (3.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (10.61)
4. (4.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (9.15)
5. (5.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (7.00)

6. (7.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (3.16)
7. (6.) Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
8. (8.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (1.53)
9. (10.) Debra Granik, Winter's Bone (1.35)
10. (9.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

Do it yourself
Here are the Calculations
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here is what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association: the best director winner receives 1.5 points instead of his previous Chicago nomination point (which was 1 point). The directors of the best screenplay winners receive 0.8 points extra. The director of the winning Foreign Language Film receives 0.8 points.

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point.

Best Actor

2010-12-20T11:30:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (20.38)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (11.44)
3. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (9.94)
4. (6.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (7.22)
5. (3.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)

6. (7.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (4.22)
7. (5.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)

8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

Note
In the acting categories, there are only three remaining points left. So mathematically Gosling and Wahlberg still have a shot to beat Duvall and Bridges, although their chances are quiet slim...
(That 'three points left rule' also aplies to the other acting categories, so you can calculate yourself who still has a chance, and who's out)

Best Actress

2010-12-20T11:26:00.000-08:00

1. (2.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (15.27)
2. (1.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (12.30)
3. (2.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (12.05)
4. (4.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (9.33)
5. (7.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (4.22)

6. (5.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)
7. (6.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (3.97)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)

9. (9.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.47)
10. (10.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.66)

Supporting Actor

2010-12-20T11:22:00.000-08:00

1. (2.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (15.16)
2. (1.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (14.16)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
4. (4.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (8.22)
5. (5.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (6.72)

6. (6.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (6.33)
7. (7.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)

8. (8.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)
-. (8.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (8.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

Supporting Actress

2010-12-20T11:14:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (15.66)
2. (2.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (10.94)
3. (2.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (10.44)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (9.33)
5. (4.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (8.22)

6. (6.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (6.72)

7. (7.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Do it yourself
Here are the Calculations
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here's what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association: winners receive 1.5 points instead of their previous Chicago nomination points (which was 1 point). Winners of the best promising actor and/or actress receive 1 point extra if they are also nominated in the regular best acting categories (actor/actress, leading/supporting).

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point.

Screenplays

2010-12-20T10:45:00.000-08:00

Original Screenplay
1. (1.) The King's Speech (10.89)
2. (2.) The Kids Are All Right (8.73)
3. (3.) Inception (7.93)
4. (-.) Black Swan (3.10)
5. (5.) Buried (3.00)

6. (7.) Four Lions (2.61)
7. (6.) Carlos (2.41)
7. (8.) I Am Love (2.41)
9. (11.) Biutiful (2.26)
10. (8.) Of Gods and Men (1.15)
--. (8.) Mother (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (25.45)!
2. (2.) 127 Hours (5.27)
3. (-.) Toy Story 3 (4.91)
4. (3.) Winter's Bone (4.21)
5. (-.) True Grit (2.40)

6. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2.26)
7. (4.) The Town (2.05)
8. (5.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
9. (6.) Fair Game (1.00)
-. (-.) Rabbit Hole (1.00)
-. (6.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

Note
In the previous editions I had Toy Story 3 in the original screenplay category, which was a mistake. Sequals are always based on material previously produced or published, so they are always 'adapted screenplays'. If you see mistakes like that, always feel free to point them out to me.

Do it yourself
Here are the Calculations.
Here is an explanation of what those columns mean.

And here's what you have to do:
Chicago Film Critics Association Awards: the winners get 1.5 points instead of their previous Chicago nomination points (which was 1 point). In the screenplay category, the winning Foreign Language Film receive 0.8 points.

Online Film Critics Society Awards Nominations: nominees receive 1 point.

BEST PICTURE

2010-12-16T11:29:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) The Social Network (30.85!)
2. (2.) The King's Speech (15.49)
3. (4.) The Fighter (13.45)
4. (5.) Black Swan (12.68)
5. (6.) The Kids Are All Right (11.94)

6. (2.) Inception (3.78)
7. (9.) Winter's Bone (3.22)
8. (7.) Carlos (2.10)
9. (8.) 127 Hours (1.92)
10. (11.) The Town (1.50)

11. (10.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)
12. (15.) Get Low (0.84)
13. (12.) Red (0.80)

Playtime is over
The experiment is updated with the nominations from the Screen Actors Guild and the winners from the San Diego Film Critics. And by now it's getting interesting!

The contenders in italic are locks. Which means this: by the end of this experiment, the Formula will predict those contenders as nominees. The Formula can make wrong predictions, but is right most of the time...

We all ready have six locks in the best picture race, and four locks in the best actor and best actress race. But the fight for the remaining slots seem more fun and exciting than last year.

Have a look.

Best Director

2010-12-16T11:21:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) David Fincher, The Social Network (25.90)
2. (2.) Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (10.92)
3. (6.) Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (9.50)
4. (5.) Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (9.15)
5. (9.) David O. Russell, The Fighter (7.00)

6. (3.) Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
7. (4.) Christopher Nolan, Inception (2.22)
8. (6.) Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (1.53)
9. (8.) Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
10. (11.) Debra Granik, Winter's Bone (0.67)

Best Actor

2010-12-16T11:07:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Colin Firth, The King's Speech (17.16)
2. (2.) Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (10.33)
3. (9.) Robert Duvall, Get Low (7.22)
-. (3.) James Franco, 127 Hours (7.22)
5. (5.) Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (4.11)

Still in the running:
6. (-.) Jeff Bridges, True Grit (4.00)
7. (5.) Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (3.11)

The race is over for:
8. (8.) Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. (9.) Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)

Oscar Winners who can still sneak in*:
9. (9.) Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. (9.) Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)

* Oscar Winners have a bigger chance to sneak into the top 5, since they can profit from the Meryl Streep Rule

Best Actress

2010-12-16T07:20:00.000-08:00

1. (3.) Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (11.19)
2. (1.) Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (10.94)
-. (4.) Natalie Portman, Black Swan (10.94)
4. (1.) Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (9.33)
5. (-.) Hilary Swank, Conviction (4.00)

Still in the running:
6. (9.) Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (3.97)
7. (5.) Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (3.11)
8. (8.) Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)

The race is over (unfortunatley):
9. (6.) Lesley Manville, Another Year (1.47)
10. (11.) Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)

Oscarwinners who still can sneak in:
11. (9.) Helen Mirren, The Tempest (1.00) (if eligible?)
--. (9.) Tilda Swinton, I Am Love (1.00)

Supporting Actor

2010-12-16T07:15:00.000-08:00

1. (1.) Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (13.05)
2. (2.) Christian Bale, The Fighter (10.33)
3. (3.) Jeremy Renner, The Town (9.33)
4. (5.) Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (7.11)
5. (-.) John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (5.61)

Still in the running:
6. (4.) Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (5.22)
7. (6.) Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)

Oscar winners who can still sneak in:
8. (7.) Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (0.30)
-. (7.) Sean Penn, Fair Game (0.30)

The race is over for:
8. (7.) Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (0.30)

Supporting Actress

2010-12-16T07:08:00.000-08:00

1. (2.) Melissa Leo, The Fighter (11.33)
2. (3.) Amy Adams, The Fighter (9.33)
-. (1.) Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (9.33)
4. (4.) Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (8.22)
-. (5.) Mila Kunis, Black Swan (8.22)

With a little bit of luck:
6. (7.) Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (5.61)

The race is over for:
7. (5.) Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (0.61)
8. (8.) Marion Cotillard, Inception (0.30)
-. (8.) Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (0.30)
-. (8.) Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (0.30)
-. (8.) Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (0.30)
-. (8.) Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (0.30)

Screenplays

2010-12-16T07:02:00.000-08:00

Original Screenplay
1. (1.) The King's Speech (8.58)
2. (2.) The Kids Are All Right (7.27)
3. (3.) Inception (4.51)
4. (4.) Toy Story 3 (3.10)
5. (5.) Buried (3.00)

6. (6.) Carlos (2.41)
7. (-.) Four Lions (1,50)
8. (-.) I Am Love
-. (7.) Mother (1.15)
-. (7.) Of Gods and Men (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. (1.) The Social Network (19.22)
2. (2.) 127 Hours (4.92)
3. (3.) Winter's Bone (2.40)
4. (4.) The Town (1.70)
5. (5.) The Ghost Writer (1.35)

6. (6.) Fair Game (1.00)
-. (6.) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. (6.) Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

BEST PICTURE

2010-12-14T11:58:00.000-08:00

1. The Social Network (10.44) - Lock!
2. Inception (3.78)
-. The King's Speech (3.78)
4. The Fighter (2.94)
5. Black Swan (2.61)

6. The Kids Are All Right (2.14)
7. Carlos (2.10)
8. 127 Hours (1.48)
9. Winter's Bone (1.39)
10. The Ghost Writer (1.35)

11. The Town (1.06)
12. Red (0.80)

(The Globe nominations are out! Here's the result for the experiment)

Best Director

2010-12-14T11:53:00.000-08:00

1. David Fincher, The Social Network (10.18) - Lock!
2. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (2.92)
3. Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
4. Christopher Nolan, Inception (2.22)
5. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (2.09)

6. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (1.31)
-. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (1.31)
8. Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
9. David O. Russell, The Fighter (1.11)
10. Bong Joon-Ho, Mother (0.67)

Best Actor

2010-12-14T11:47:00.000-08:00

1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech (10.94) - Lock!
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (6.22)
3. James Franco, 127 Hours (3.11)
-. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (3.11)

5. Edgar Ramirez, Carlos (2.00)
-. Mark Whalberg, The Fighter (2.00)
7. Ewan McGregor, The Ghost Writer (1.50)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (1.23)
9. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
-. Robert Duvall, Get Low (1.00)

(I'm surprised that Robert Duvall and Javier Bardem are doing so bad)

Best Actress

2010-12-14T11:43:00.000-08:00

1. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (5.22)
-. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (5.22)
3. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (4.97)
4. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (4.72)
5. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (3.11)

6. Kim Hye-Ja, Mother (3.00)
-. Lesley Manville, Another Year (3.00)
8. Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (2.00)
9. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (1.86)
10. Sylvie Testud, Lourdes (1.50)

(No locks here)

Supporting Actor

2010-12-14T11:39:00.000-08:00

1. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (8.94) - Lock!
2. Christian Bale, The Fighter (6.22) - Lock!
3. Jeremy Renner, The Town (5.22)
4. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (3.11)
5. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (3.00)

6. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2.00)
7. Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (1.00)
-. Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (1.00)
-. Sean Penn, Fair Game (1.00)

Supporting Actress

2010-12-14T11:35:00.000-08:00

1. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (9.33) - Lock!
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (7.22) - Lock!
3. Amy Adams, The Fighter (5.22)
4. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (4.11)

5. Mila Kunis, Black Swan (2.00)
-. Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (2.00)
7. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (1.50)
8. Marion Cotillard, Inception (1.00)
-. Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (1.00)
-. Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (1.00)
-. Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (1.00)

Screenplays

2010-12-14T11:30:00.000-08:00

Original Screenplay
1. The King's Speech (8.23) - lock!
2. The Kids Are All Right (6.92)
3. Inception (4.51)
4. Toy Story 3 (3.10)
5. Buried (3.00)

6. Carlos (2.41)
7. Mother (1.15)
-. Of Gods and Men (1.15)
9. Biutiful (1.00)
-. The Eclipse (1.00)
-. Get Low (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. The Social Network (17.26) - lock!
2. 127 Hours (4.92)
3. Winter's Bone (2.05)
4. The Town (1.70)
5. The Ghost Writer (1.35)

6. Fair Game (1.00)
-. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

BEST PICTURE

2010-12-13T12:08:00.000-08:00

1. The Social Network (8.87)
2. Carlos (2.10)
3. Inception (1.39)
-. The King's Speech (1.39)
-. Winter's Bone (1.39)

6. The Ghost Writer (1.35)
7. The Kids Are All Right (1.07)
8. 127 Hours (1.06)
-. The Town (1.06)

10. Animal Kingdom (0.40)
--. Blue Valentine (0.40)
--. Get Low (0.40)

New Awards
This is a new update of the rankings of the experiment with the winners from LAFCA, NYFCC, the Southeastern Film Critics and the Top 10 from the BFCA.

At this stage we had three Top Tens: from NBR, Southeastern Film Critics and BFCA. Seven films were on all three of them: The Social Network, Inception, The King's Speech, Winter's Bone, The Fighter, Toy Story 3 and True Grit. Will these seven films be nominated for best picture? It's very likely at this point.

Best Director

2010-12-13T12:05:00.000-08:00

1. David Fincher, The Social Network (8.35)
2. Olivier Assayas, Carlos (2.41)
3. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (1.18)
4. Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)
5. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (1.10)

6. Bong Joon-Ho, Mother (0.67)
7. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (0.40)
-. David Michod, Animal Kingdom (0.40)
-. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (0.40)
-. Christopher Nolan, Inception (0.40)
-. Ben Affleck, The Town (0.40)
-. Debra Granik, The Winter's Bone (0.40)

Best Actor

2010-12-13T12:03:00.000-08:00

1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech (8.83)
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (4.11)
3. Edgar Ramirez, Carlos (2.00)
4. Ewan McGregor, The Ghost Writer (1.50)

5. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
-. Robert Duvall, Get Low (1.00)
-. James Franco, 127 Hours (1.00)
-. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (1.00)

Best Actress

2010-12-13T12:01:00.000-08:00

1. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (4.11)
2. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (3.11)
3. Kim Hye-Ja, Mother (3.00)
-. Lesley Manville, Another Year (3.00)
5. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (2.61)

6. Sylvie Testud, Lourdes (1.50)
-. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (1.00)
-. Helen Mirren, The Tempest (1.00)
-. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (1.00)
-. Noomi Rapace, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Tilda Swinton, I Am Love (1.00)
-. Naomi Watts, Fair Game (1.00)
-. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (1.00)

Supporting Actor

2010-12-13T11:59:00.000-08:00

1. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (6.83)
2. Christian Bale, The Fighter (4.11)
3. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (3.00)

4. Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (1.00)
-. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (1.00)
-. Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (1.00)
-. Sean Penn, Fair Game (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Town (1.00)

Supporting Actress

2010-12-13T11:56:00.000-08:00

1. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (7.22)
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (3.00)
3. Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer (2.00)
4. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (1.50)

5. Amy Adams, The Fighter (1.00)
-. Marion Cotillard, Inception (1.00)
-. Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (1.00)
-. Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (1.00)
-. Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (1.00)

About the acting categories:
The only lock so far is Colin Firth (and probably Geoffrey Rush). But we'll have many more lock tomorow, after the Golden Globe nominations! Stay tuned!

Screenplays

2010-12-13T11:50:00.000-08:00

Original Screenplay
1. The King's Speech (5.77)
2. The Kids Are All Right (4.46)
3. Toy Story 3 (3.10)
4. Buried (3.00)
5. Carlos (2.41)

6. Inception (2.05)
7. Mother (1.15)
-. Of Gods and Men (1.15)
9. Biutiful (1.00)
-. The Eclipse (1.00)
-. Get Low (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. The Social Network (14.80)
2. Winter's Bone (2.05)
3. 127 Hours (1.70)
-. The Town (1.70)
5. The Ghost Writer (1.35)

6. Fair Game (1.00)
-. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

Look at those top five adapted screenplays! Wouldn't it be cool if those were the final nominees?

BEST PICTURE

2010-12-08T02:01:00.000-08:00

The Experiment has begun!!!

Thanks to the Satellite Nominations and winners from the European Film Awards and the National Board of Review we have our first standings. So with no further ado... Let's take a look!

1. The Social Network (2.91)
2. The Ghost Writer (1.35)
3. Inception (0.73)
-. The King's Speech (0.73)
-. The Town (0.73)
-. Winter's Bone (0.73)

7. 127 Hours (0.40)
-. Animal Kingdom (0.40)
-. Blue Valentine (0.40)
-. Get Low (0.40)
-. The Kids Are All Right (0.40)

How to read this
First things first, for everyone new here, the experiment is no buzz-o-meter. It's more like an award-meter: if you win awards you receive points. Some critics say that this is the experiment's biggest weakness, but if you look at its prediction power, I'd call it its strength!

The Social Network received points because it won the NBR and received a Satellite nomination, The Ghost Writer won the EFA, while Inception, The King's Speech, The Town and Winter's Bone are the only films in the NBR Top 10 to be nominated for the Best Picture Satellite.

You can download the calculations (in excell) HERE!

Exactly one year ago, the future Oscar Winner was all ready on this list! (But so was Bright Star)

(Next sunday the Award Season starts for real, when in just a couple of days the real big guns like the Los Angeles Film Critics, the New York Film Critics and the Golden Globes all hand out awards, runners-up or nominations.)

Best Director

2010-12-08T01:58:00.000-08:00

1. David Fincher, The Social Network (3.19)
2. Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer (1.11)

3. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (0.40)
-. David Michod, Animal Kingdom (0.40)
-. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (0.40)
-. Christopher Nolan, Inception (0.40)
-. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (0.40)
-. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (0.40)
-. Ben Affleck, The Town (0.40)
-. Debra Granik, The Winter's Bone (0.40)

How to read this
This doesn't mean that Fincher and Polanski are surefire nominees just yet. In the Best Picture and Best Director race, you need at least a nomination from the Directors Guild, the Producers Guild or a Screen Actors Ensemble Award!

Best Actor

2010-12-08T01:55:00.000-08:00

1. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (4.11)
2. Ewan McGregor, The Ghost Writer (1.50)

3. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (1.00)
-. Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (1.00)
-. Michael Douglas, Solitary Man (1.00)
-. Robert Duvall, Get Low (1.00)
-. Colin Firth, The King's Speech (1.00)
-. James Franco, 127 Hours (1.00)
-. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (1.00)

Best Actress

2010-12-08T01:52:00.000-08:00

1. Lesley Manville, Another Year (3.00)
2. Sylvie Testud, Lourdes (1.50)

3. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (1.00)
-. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (1.00)
-. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (1.00)
-. Helen Mirren, The Tempest (1.00)
-. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (1.00)
-. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (1.00)
-. Noomi Rapace, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Tilda Swinton, I Am Love (1.00)
-. Naomi Watts, Fair Game (1.00)
-. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (1.00)

How to read this
I have some bad news for all actors and actresses who never received an Oscar nomination before. For them to get an Oscar nomination in the Best Actor or Best Actress category, they need a nomination from the Golden Globe and/or the Screen Actors Guild (a personal nomination, an ensemble nomination is not enough!).

If they fail to get that, their points will be divided by 3.

Pop Quiz: Can you name an actor or actress who scored a first Oscar nomination (in the leading categories) without receiving a Golden Globe nomination, or a Screen Actors Guild nomination first?

Supporting Actor

2010-12-08T01:50:00.000-08:00

1. Christian Bale, The Fighter (4.11)

2. Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer (1.00)
-. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (1.00)
-. Tommy Lee Jones, The Company Men (1.00)
-. Sean Penn, Fair Game (1.00)
-. Jeremy Renner, The Town (1.00)
-. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (1.00)

Supporting Actress

2010-12-08T01:47:00.000-08:00

1. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (4.11)

2. Amy Adams, The Fighter (1.00)
-. Marion Cotillard, Inception (1.00)
-. Ann-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Rosamund Pike, Barney's Version (1.00)
-. Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet (1.00)
-. Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (1.00)
-. Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole (1.00)

How to read this
In the supporting categories the influences of the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild are even more powerfull. It doens't matter how many Oscar nominations you received in the past, if you don't have a nomination from the Globes or SAG, you're points will be divided by 3. (Here an ensemble nomination can be enough. Remember Alan Alda?)

Screenplays

2010-12-08T01:35:00.000-08:00

Original Screenplay
1. Buried (3.00)
2. Toy Story 3 (1.70)
3. Inception (1.35)
-. The King's Speech (1.35)
5. Of Gods and Men (1.15)

6. Biutiful (1.00)
-. The Eclipse (1.00)
-. Get Low (1.00)
-. The Kids Are All Right (1.00)

Adapted Screenplay
1. The Social Network (6.57)
2. The Ghost Writer (1.35)
-. The Town (1.35)
-. Winter's Bone (1.35)

5. 127 Hours (1.00)
-. Fair Game (1.00)
-. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (1.00)
-. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (1.00)

How to read this
It looks like we have a first lock for an Oscar nomination! Since 5 points is usually enough to end up in the final top 5 Screenplays, The Social Network's screenplay is an almost certain Oscar nominee. But we all ready knew that, didn"t we...

Another Year...

2010-11-30T01:09:00.001-08:00

We're back and ready for the new edition of the world famous Oscar Experiment!!!

To recap: last year we had only one mistake in the acting categories (Maggie Gyllenhaal) and one wrong prediction in the writing categories (The Messenger), but unlike most Oscar pundits we did predict In the Loop!

In the last couple of weeks we improved the formula in the best picture and best director category, so that we'll do even better this year!

You can find out everything about The New Formula!

And find out the Awards Calendar!

I wish you all a happy award season!
Sijmen

It's over and done...

2010-02-22T05:34:00.000-08:00

The experiment 2010 is over. And what a year it was! The Formula was the year's best predictor of the acting and writing nominations!

Take a look!

However, the best picture and best director categories need some adjustments. I'm sure we'll think of something before the experiment starts again in december 2010.

See you then!

Last Update

2010-01-27T00:50:00.000-08:00

Today the last guild nominees of the season were announced: the Costume Designers Guild. It led to two minor changes in the best picture standings:

1. Avatar jumped over The Hurt Locker to second place.
2. Up sank to 14th place, and was replaced by 500 Days of Summer.

The current standings are on my site, where you can compare it with the standings from other years.

I wish you all a happy nomination day :-)

BEST PICTURE

2010-01-21T05:07:00.000-08:00

1. Up in the Air (42.64)
2. The Hurt Locker (23.45)
3. Avatar (23.38)
4. Precious (22.60)
5. District 9 (11.00)

6. Inglorious Bastards (10.44)
7. Star Trek (5.46)
8. An Education (4.99)
9. Julie & Julia (4.39)
10. Invictus (4.20)

11. Nine (3.46)
12. A Serious Man (3.24)
13. Up (3.02)

Note
This is it! This year's Oscar Experiment is over. Now we just have to wait until Nomination Morning to see how well or how bad we have done. Or we can speculate... My speculation is that the Formula will score a decent 38 out of 45 (or 84.4%).

Let me specify that number category per category...

In the Best Picture Category there are seven locks (Avatar, Basters, The Hurt Locker, An Education, Precious, District 9, Up in the Air). I think Invictus is a safe number eight. The Formula says the remaining two spots will be taken by Star Trek and Julie & Julia. I rather expect Up and A Serious Man.

So the Formula might score a 8 out of 10 in the Best Picture Category.

Best Director

2010-01-21T04:55:00.000-08:00

1. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (31.40)
2. James Cameron, Avatar (22.64)
3. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (20.35)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (15.79)
5. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (13.86)

6. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (9.53)
7. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)

8. J.J. Abrams, Star Trek (3.33)
9. Lone Scherfig, An Education (3.14)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (2.70)

Note
I would be very surprised if Tarantino wouldn't get a nomination. He is the reason why people like Inglourious Basterds. This is more the kind of film that would get snubbed in the Best Picture Category (back in the old days, I mean, when there were only five Best Picture Nominees).

I still think that both Daniels and Blomkamp will get nominated. My guess is that Reitman will be the surprise snub.

If so, the Formula will score a 4 out of 5 in this category.

Best Actor

2010-01-21T04:52:00.000-08:00

1. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (20.99)
2. George Clooney, Up in the Air (19.97)
3. Colin Firth, A Single Man (12.05)
4. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (11.55)
5. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)

6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
7. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)

8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
I would be very surprised if the Formula doesn't score a 5 out of 5 here!

Best Actress

2010-01-21T04:47:00.000-08:00

1. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (19.29)
2. Carey Mulligan, An Education (18.99)
3. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (11.05)
4. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (10.22)
5. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)

6. Tilda Swinton, Julia (5.22)
7. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)

8. Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones (2.11)
9. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
10. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.50)

Note
Streep, Mulligan, Sidibe and Bullock are locks. Fifth spot could offer a surprise, but Mirren is the safest bet. So the Formula could score yet another 5 out of 5 (though I still root for Swinton)

Supporting Actor

2010-01-21T04:38:00.000-08:00

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (32.54)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (14.66)
3. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (8.33)
4. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)

6. Alfred Molina, An Education (2.11)
7. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
-. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.43)

8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
10. Alec Baldwin, It's Complicated (0.71)

Note
This category is as open as it was in early December. Waltz and Harrelson are locks. Tucci is a strong possibility. But the remaining two spots are impossible to predict. I would pick Molina for fourth place. Who is Fifth? Plummer? Mackie? Baldwin? Your guess is as good as mine.

Let's pick Mackie. That would mean the Formula would have a disastrous 3 out of 5.

Supporting Actress

2010-01-21T04:33:00.000-08:00

1. Mo'nique, Precious (30.93)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (16.88)
3. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (11.55)
4. Penelope Cruz, Nine (9.33)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)

6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)

8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
Mo'nique, Kendrick and Farmiga are locks. There are three candidates for the remaining two spots: Moore, Kruger and Morton (no matter what the Formula says, Cruz is completely out).

So another tragic 3 out of 5 is possible... But I think Moore and Morton are going to make it, so the Formula has a 4 out of 5.

Screenplays

2010-01-21T04:23:00.000-08:00

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (26.74)
2. Inglorious Bastards (18.51)
3. A Serious Man (15.26)
4. Avatar (12.32)
5. Up (11.69)

6. 500 Days of Summer (10.99)
7. The Hangover (5.46)

8. The White Ribbon (4.02)
9. Sin Nombre (2.41)
-. Broken Embraces (2.41)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (36.78)
2. Precious (13.63)
3. District 9 (9.60)
4. In the Loop (8.44)
5. An Education (7.43)

6. Star Trek (6.81)
7. Julie & Julia (5.46)

8. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.86)
9. Crazy Heart (4.00)
10. Invictus (3.05)

Note
The Hurt Locker, Basterds, A Serious Man and Up are locks for Original Screenplay. There are 3 possibilities for that fifth spot: Avatar, 500 Days of Summer and The White Ribbon. My guess is The White Ribbon over Avatar.

The Adapted Screenplay provides one question mark: In the Loop. Is that film too obscure for the Academy? If so, it might get replaced by Crazy Heart (or Fantastic Mr. Fox). My guess is that Loop gets in.

So I expect the Formula to score a splendid 9 out of 10 at the screenplay categories.

So the overall prediction rate will be 38 out of 45 (or 84.4%). Or are my speculations nothing but wishfull thinking? We'll know on February 2. See you then!

BEST PICTURE

2010-01-17T23:39:00.000-08:00

1. Up in the Air (41.62)
2. The Hurt Locker (22.58)
3. Avatar (21.92)
4. Precious (21.58)
5. District 9 (10.56)

6. Inglorious Bastards (10.44)
7. Star Trek (5.02)
8. An Education (4.57)
9. Julie & Julia (4.39)
10. Invictus (4.20)

11. Nine (3.46)
12. A Serious Man (3.24)
13. Up (3.02)

Note
The next update (22/1) will be my last. By then I want to be ready to compare the Formula's predictionw with my own. But what would be good predictions in this category? Locks: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Basterds, District 9, Precious, Up in the Air, An Education. What else? Help needed!

P.S.: Since they failed to win any Golden Globe, The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds are now official Too Early Front Runners (hence their scores are divided by 2.5).

Best Director

2010-01-17T23:32:00.000-08:00

1. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (31.40)
2. James Cameron, Avatar (21.31)
3. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (19.62)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (15.79)
5. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (11.42)

6. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (9.02)
7. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
8. J.J. Abrams, Star Trek (3.11)
9. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (2.70)
10. Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man (2.43)

Note
This is the Formula's boldes prediction of the year: no Tarantino for best director. The most logic prediction would be Reitman, Cameron, Bigelow, Tarantino and Blomkamp, no?

Best Actor

2010-01-17T23:29:00.000-08:00

1. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (19.88)
2. George Clooney, Up in the Air (18.86)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (10.44)

6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
7. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
Of all the categories, this is the one I feel the most confident about. Or what do you think?

Best Actress

2010-01-17T23:26:00.000-08:00

1. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (18.18)
2. Carey Mulligan, An Education (17.88)
3. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (10.22)
4. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (9.94)
5. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)

6. Tilda Swinton, Julia (5.22)
7. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)
8. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
9. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.50)
10. Sandra Bullock, The Proposal (1.23)

Note
Streep, Mulligan, Bullock and Sibide seem locks. But who will be the fifth nominee? What's your guess?

Supporting Actor

2010-01-17T23:22:00.000-08:00

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (31.43)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (14.66)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)

6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
7. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
10. Paul Schneider, Bright Star (0.45)

Note
Only two locks: Waltz and Harrelson. The other three spots are impossible to predict. I think my prediction will include Waltz, Harrelson, Mackie, Molina and... ???

Supporting Actress

2010-01-17T23:20:00.000-08:00

1. Mo'nique, Precious (29.82)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (15.77)
3. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (10.44)
4. Penelope Cruz, Nine (9.33)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)

6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
Penelope Cruz won't be nominated. Samantha Morton is bound to take her place. Agree?

Screenplays

2010-01-17T23:12:00.000-08:00

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (25.28)
2. Inglorious Bastards (17.40)
3. A Serious Man (14.15)
4. Avatar (11.97)
5. 500 Days of Summer (10.99)

6. Up (10.58)
7. The Hangover (4.35)
8. The White Ribbon (4.02)
9. Sin Nombre (2.41)
-. Broken Embraces (2.41)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (35.32)
2. Precious (12.17)
3. District 9 (8.49)
4. In the Loop (7.33)
5. Star Trek (6.81)

6. An Education (5.97)
7. Julie & Julia (5.46)
8. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.86)
9. Crazy Heart (4.00)
10. Invictus (3.05)

Note
I think everyone agrees here, no?
Original: The Hurt Locker, Basterds, Up, A Serious Man and 500 Days of Summer, with Avatar and The White Ribbon as possible spoilers?
Adapted: Up in the Air, Precious, District 9, In the Loop and An Education?

Anyone out there with a different view?

BEST PICTURE

2010-01-12T01:10:00.000-08:00

1. The Hurt Locker (43.97)
2. Up in the Air (39.78)
3. Inglorious Bastards (23.36)
4. Precious (21.58)
5. Avatar (18.74)

6. District 9 (10.56)
7. Star Trek (5.02)
8. An Education (4.57)
9. Invictus (4.20)
10. Nine (3.46)

11. Julie & Julia (3.31)
12. A Serious Man (3.24)
13. Up (3.02)

Note
I don't feel safe about these predictions at all! There is a certain rule within the Formula that states:

If a film is nominated for both the WGA and the PGA, then the producers receive 1 point, and the directors 2 points.

But that is a rule from a time when the Producers Guild had five, not ten nominations. If the PGA would have only five nominees, would Precious have been among them? Or Star Trek? Or District 9?

It's also a rule from a time when all the important screenplay contenders were eligible for the Writers Guild. If District 9, An Education, Fantastic Mr. Fox and In the Loop were eligible, would Precious have been a WGA nominee? Or Star Trek?

So I have no idea how accurate these predictions are anymore... Aaaarrgh! (might join a self-help support group soon!)

Nine Note: Since Nine failed to get a Writers Guild Nomination, it's points got divided by 2.5 again. Only if the film wins a Golden Globe, it will jump back again in the top 10. (see The Formula's Most Important Rule).

Next up: The winners from the Broadcast Film Critics (1/15) and the Golden Globes (1/17). Next update 1/18. The end is near!

Best Director

2010-01-12T00:50:00.000-08:00

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (38.19)
2. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (29.38)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (20.65)
4. James Cameron, Avatar (17.99)
5. Lee Daniels, Precious (15.79)

6. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (11.42)
7. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
8. J.J. Abrams, Star Trek (3.11)
9. Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man (2.43)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (2.37)

Note
Many 'insiders' note that Lee Daniels is the DGA nominee that could be left out when the Oscar Nominations are announced. I think so too. But according to the Formula, the fifth spot is a showdown between Tarantino's Basterds and the Aliens from District 9.

If the Tarantino film fails to win best picture, best director or best screenplay at the Golden Globes next sunday, he's out and District 9 will take his place... Without an important Golden Globe, The Formula will consider Inglourious Basterds as a Too Early Front Runner.

Bad News Note
The last film The Formula considered a Too Early Front Runner, was Crash, a film that eventually won the best picture Oscar...

Best Actor

2010-01-12T00:49:00.000-08:00

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (18.86)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (15.77)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (10.44)

6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
7. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
No changes in the acting categories...

Best Actress

2010-01-12T00:48:00.000-08:00

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education (17.88)
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (14.82)
3. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (9.94)
4. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (8.22)
5. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (6.11)

6. Tilda Swinton, Julia (5.22)
7. Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria (3.11)
8. Marion Cotillard, Nine (1.86)
9. Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Stoning of Soraya M. (1.50)
10. Sandra Bullock, The Proposal (1.23)

Supporting Actor

2010-01-12T00:47:00.000-08:00

1. Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Bastards (27.32)
2. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (14.66)
3. Matt Damon, Invictus (8.22)
4. Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (7.22)
5. Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (6.11)

6. Peter Capaldi, In the Loop (1.43)
7. Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles (1.02)
8. Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (1.00)
-. Alfred Molina, An Education (1.00)
10. Paul Schneider, Bright Star (0.45)

Supporting Actress

2010-01-12T00:46:00.000-08:00

1. Mo'nique, Precious (25.71)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (15.77)
3. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (10.44)
4. Penelope Cruz, Nine (9.33)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)

6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
I discovered Penelope Cruz received two points too many back in december... It doesn't really matter, she stays a lock (according to the Formula)

Screenplays

2010-01-12T00:31:00.000-08:00

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (23.17)
2. A Serious Man (14.15)
3. Inglorious Bastards (13.94)
4. 500 Days of Summer (10.99)
5. Up (9.88)

6. Avatar (9.51)
7. The Hangover (4.35)
8. The White Ribbon (2.76)
9. Sin Nombre (2.41)
10. It's Complicated (2.35)

Note
Two spots left for three films: 500 Days of Summer, Up and Avatar. Avatar's screenplay can receive two points if Avatar wins best picture at the globes. The Bafta nominations will determine the rest...

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (31.21)
2. Precious (12.17)
3. District 9 (8.49)
4. In the Loop (7.33)
5. Star Trek (6.81)

6. An Education (5.97)
7. Julie & Julia (5.46)
8. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.86)
9. Crazy Heart (4.00)
10. Invictus (3.05)

Note
BAFTA will decide if the fifth spot goes to Star Trek or An Education...

BEST PICTURE

2010-01-08T02:08:00.000-08:00

1. The Hurt Locker (37.15)
2. Up in the Air (33.40)
3. Inglorious Bastards (22.48)
4. Precious (18.10)
5. Avatar (11.92)
6. Nine (9.17)
7. District 9 (8.46)
8. An Education (4.89)
9. Invictus (4.20)
10. Star Trek (2.46)
--. Up (2.46)

12. A Serious Man (1.67)
13. 500 Days of Summer (1.32)
14. The White Ribbon (1.28)
15. Julie & Julia (1.24)

Note
There's one important thing: the rankings are not that important. The Formula does not predict who will WIN! Only who will be nominated. So that Avatar is on the fifth instead of first place, is not that important.

It does seem that there are eleven films vying for a place in the Top 10. If the ranking stays like this and Star Trek and Up tie for tenth place, we'll use the Tie Breaker, which means Up will be in, and Star Trek will be out. (Nine needs to win a Golden Globe to stay safe).

Next: The Writers Guild Nominations on january 11 and the American Cinema Editors on january 12! (new update january 13)

P.S. The bold ones are locks for a nomination.

Best Director

2010-01-08T01:46:00.002-08:00

1. Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (31.97)
2. Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (23.38)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Bastards (20.21)
4. Lee Daniels, Precious (12.35)
5. James Cameron, Avatar (11.77)

6. Neill Blomkamp, District 9 (9.66)
7. Rob Marshall, Nine (5.55)
8. Clint Eastwood, Invictus (3.98)
9. Lone Scherfig, An Education (2.43)
10. Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon (2.37)

Note
To my own suprise there are only two locks. The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air and Inglourious Basterds must win an important Golden Globe (picture, director, actor, actress or screenplay) otherwise they will be this year's Too Early Front Runner. And that's especially bad news for Basterds. If the Tarantino film fails to win one of these, its score will be divided by 2.5 and it'll leave the top 5, in favor of District 9.

The chances for District 9 to crack into the top 5, are almost diminished by its ineligibility for the Writers Guild Award. In fact Inglourious Basterds, An Education, Up, In the Loop, A Single Man, The Road and Fantastic Mr. Fox are all ineligible for the Writers Guild. That and the new rule by the Producers Guild to nominate ten instead of five films, will have a bad effect on the Formula's prediction rate, I'm afraid, and especially in the best director category.

Best Actor

2010-01-08T01:46:00.001-08:00

1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (18.86)
2. Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (15.77)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (11.33)
4. Colin Firth, A Single Man (10.94)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (10.44)

6. Matt Damon, The Informant (3.45)
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man (2.77)
8. Tobey Maguire, Brothers (2.00)
-. Brad Pitt, Inglorious Bastards (2.00)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (1.86)

Note
The predicted nominees match the SAG nominations for best actor...

Best Actress

2010-01-08T01:44:00.000-08:00

Supporting Actor

2010-01-08T01:42:00.000-08:00

Supporting Actress

2010-01-08T01:37:00.000-08:00

1. Mo'nique, Precious (25.71)
2. Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (15.77)
3. Penelope Cruz, Nine (11.44)
4. Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air (10.44)
5. Julianne Moore, A Single Man (6.33)

6. Diane Kruger, Inglorious Bastards (5.11)
7. Samantha Morton, The Messenger (0.86)
8. Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning (0.30)
-. Mozhan Marno, The Stoning of Soraya M. (0.30)
-. Catherine Keener, Where the Wild Things Are (0.30)
-. Nathalie Portman, Brothers (0.30)

Note
Moore is the only difference with the SAG nominations (they went for Kruger instead).

Screenplays

2010-01-08T01:30:00.000-08:00

Original Screenplay
1. The Hurt Locker (19.06)
2. Inglorious Bastards (13.94)
3. A Serious Man (10.04)
4. Up (9.88)
5. 500 Days of Summer (6.88)

6. Avatar (5.40)
7. The White Ribbon (2.76)
8. Sin Nombre (2.41)
9. It's Complicated (2.35)
10. Broken Embraces (1.15)
-. Il Divo (1.15)
-. The Maid (1.15)

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (27.10)
2. District 9 (8.49)
3. Precious (8.06)
4. In the Loop (7.33)
5. An Education (5.97)

6. Fantastic Mr. Fox (4.86)
7. Invictus (3.05)
8. Where the Wild Things Are (3.05)
9. Star Trek (2.70)
10. Julie & Julia (1.35)

BEST PICTURE

2010-01-05T07:27:00.000-08:00

1. The Hurt Locker (34.19)
2. Up in the Air (30.94)
3. Inglorious Bastards (19.20)
4. Precious (15.64)
5. Nine (9.17)
6. District 9 (8.46)
7. An Education (4.89)
8. Invictus (4.20)
9. Avatar (2.86)
10. Star Trek (2.46)
--. Up (2.46)

12. A Serious Man (1.67)
13. 500 Days of Summer (1.32)
14. Julie & Julia (1.24)
15. The White Ribbon (0.94)

Note
The Producers Guild Nominations are in! And it's an exciting list full of movies I really love (The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Up, Star Trek, District 9). Maybe the Academy's move to ten best picture nominees isn't so bad after all...

But back to the Formula. What's Nine still doing there? If, and only IF Nine doesn't win any Golden Globe, it's points will be divided by 2.5 and it will leave the top 10 (see the Formula's most important rule).

Unfortunately, I still believe Nine is the frontrunner for the Best Picture - Comedy or Musical Golden Globe. So Nine is probably here to stay. (Unless the unlikely event that the Formula is wrong, but we don't have such absurd thoughts)